Sportivo Trinidense
vs
Sportivo Ameliano
Division Profesional - Clausura prediction
Our model says: Sportivo Trinidense 2–1 Sportivo Ameliano
The model makes it 58% Sportivo Trinidense, 23% draw, 19% Sportivo Ameliano — fair odds of 1.72, 4.35 and 5.26.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (10%).
Expected goals: Sportivo Trinidense 2.17, Sportivo Ameliano 1.02.
Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 62%, under 2.5: 38%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 60% of the time, over 1,860 settled matches.
Edge to Sportivo Trinidense: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 1 November 2026. Sportivo Trinidense's rating is built from 39 Paraguayan Primera División Clausura matches and Sportivo Ameliano's from 39, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Sportivo Trinidense are 3rd on 30 points from 17 games; Sportivo Ameliano are 8th on 19 points from 17 games — Division Profesional - Clausura.
- Sportivo Trinidense have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-4 defeat at home to Rubio NU.
- Sportivo Ameliano have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-3 defeat away to Deportivo Recoleta.
- Last 6 meetings: Sportivo Trinidense 4 wins to 0, 2 draws; the most recent, 2 September 2026, ended Sportivo Ameliano 0–3 Sportivo Trinidense.
More Paraguayan Primera División Clausura predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Sportivo Trinidense vs Sportivo Ameliano
Has the model earned this number?
Sportivo Trinidense at 58%: of 1,376 settled 50–65% forecasts, 57.5% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Sportivo Trinidense vs Sportivo Ameliano
Sportivo Trinidense
Division Profesional - Clausura
- L2-4Rubio NU30 October 2026
- W1-0away to Nacional Asuncion24 October 2026
- W1-0Libertad Asuncion18 October 2026
- D1-1away to Club Sp. San Lorenzo10 October 2026
- W3-2Sportivo Luqueno5 October 2026
Sportivo Ameliano
Division Profesional - Clausura
- L0-3away to Deportivo Recoleta31 October 2026
- L2-3Olimpia25 October 2026
- D2-2away to Cerro Porteno18 October 2026
- L0-1away to 2 de Mayo12 October 2026
- L1-2Rubio NU6 October 2026
What these results say
- Sportivo Trinidense scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Sportivo Ameliano did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Sportivo Ameliano conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Sportivo Ameliano had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Division Profesional - Clausura table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Sportivo Trinidense | 17 | 9 | 3 | 5 | 28 | 18 | +10 | 30 |
| 8 | Sportivo Ameliano | 17 | 4 | 7 | 6 | 19 | 24 | -5 | 19 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Sportivo Trinidense
Chance to finish in the top four · 65% today
Sportivo Ameliano
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 9% today
From our Division Profesional - Clausura season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Sportivo Trinidense vs Sportivo Ameliano
- 2 September 2026Sportivo Ameliano 0–3 Sportivo TrinidenseDivision Profesional - Clausura
- 24 May 2026Sportivo Ameliano 1–2 Sportivo TrinidenseDivision Profesional - Apertura
- 19 March 2026Sportivo Trinidense 1–1 Sportivo AmelianoDivision Profesional - Apertura
- 26 November 2025Sportivo Ameliano 0–0 Sportivo TrinidenseDivision Profesional - Clausura
- 8 September 2025Sportivo Trinidense 1–0 Sportivo AmelianoDivision Profesional - Clausura
- 4 April 2025Sportivo Ameliano 0–1 Sportivo TrinidenseDivision Profesional - Apertura
Leading scorers: Sportivo Trinidense and Sportivo Ameliano
Sportivo Trinidense
GoalsAssists
- F. Romero71
- L. Abreu41
Sportivo Ameliano
GoalsAssists
- C. Ocampos53
- R. Torales51
- E. Moreira50
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The two sides
Sportivo Trinidense carry a model rating of 6.53 against 6.3 for Sportivo Ameliano.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 2.17 goals for Sportivo Trinidense and 1.02 for Sportivo Ameliano.
Sportivo Trinidense rate 0.74 in attack and 1.41 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Sportivo Ameliano rate 0.60 and 1.80.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Sportivo Trinidense a 2.3% chance of the title and Sportivo Ameliano 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Sportivo Trinidense the highest probability at 58%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.17 expected goals for Sportivo Trinidense against 1.02 for Sportivo Ameliano. Sportivo Trinidense's attack/defence rating is 0.74/1.41 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.6/1.8 for Sportivo Ameliano.
How the model reaches 58% for Sportivo Trinidense to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Sportivo Trinidense to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, the level of the two sides adds 1 point, Sportivo Trinidense's ratings add 6 points and Sportivo Ameliano's ratings add 7 points, which lands on the published 58%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Both sides at this match's level45%+1
- Sportivo Trinidense's ratings51%+6
- Sportivo Ameliano's ratings58%+7
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Sportivo Trinidense at home · Sportivo Ameliano away
League matches only, Division Profesional - Clausura, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Division Profesional - Clausura matches this season: Sportivo Trinidense 17, Sportivo Ameliano 17.
Sportivo Trinidense score most often in the 76–90 minute window (11 goals); Sportivo Ameliano have let in 3 there.
Sportivo Ameliano score most often in the 76–90 minute window (7 goals); Sportivo Trinidense have let in 5 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Sportivo Trinidense
- at Olimpia18 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 23%
- vs Deportivo Recoleta25 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 58%
- at Club Guarani29 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 28%
Sportivo Ameliano
- vs Sportivo Luqueno18 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 53%
- at Club Sp. San Lorenzo25 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 39%
- vs Libertad Asuncion29 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 36%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.