Sportivo Ameliano
vs
Club Guarani
Division Profesional - Clausura prediction
Our model says: Sportivo Ameliano 0–1 Club Guarani
The model makes it 35% Sportivo Ameliano, 29% draw, 36% Club Guarani — fair odds of 2.86, 3.45 and 2.78. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Sportivo Ameliano 1.27, Club Guarani 1.30.
Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 47%, under 2.5: 53%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,017 settled matches.
A tight game: Sportivo Ameliano and Club Guarani are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 25 October 2026. Sportivo Ameliano's rating is built from 37 Paraguayan Primera División Clausura matches and Club Guarani's from 38, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Sportivo Ameliano are 8th on 19 points from 15 games; Club Guarani are 6th on 25 points from 16 games — Division Profesional - Clausura.
- Sportivo Ameliano have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 2-2 draw away to Cerro Porteno.
- Club Guarani have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-0 win away to Rubio NU.
- Last 6 meetings: Club Guarani 2 wins to 1, 3 draws; the most recent, 30 August 2026, ended Club Guarani 1–1 Sportivo Ameliano.
More Paraguayan Primera División Clausura predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Sportivo Ameliano vs Club Guarani
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Club Guarani at 36% here. Across 4,776 settled matches (as of 25 October 2026), 3,676 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Sportivo Ameliano vs Club Guarani
Sportivo Ameliano
Division Profesional - Clausura
- D2-2away to Cerro Porteno18 October 2026
- L0-1away to 2 de Mayo12 October 2026
- L1-2Rubio NU6 October 2026
- D1-1away to Nacional Asuncion25 September 2026
- D1-1away to Libertad Asuncion19 September 2026
Club Guarani
Division Profesional - Clausura
- W2-0away to Rubio NU23 October 2026
- L0-2Nacional Asuncion17 October 2026
- D2-2away to Libertad Asuncion11 October 2026
- D1-1Club Sp. San Lorenzo3 October 2026
- W1-0away to Sportivo Luqueno25 September 2026
What these results say
- Sportivo Ameliano did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Sportivo Ameliano conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Sportivo Ameliano scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Club Guarani scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Club Guarani had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Division Profesional - Clausura table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Sportivo Ameliano | 15 | 4 | 7 | 4 | 17 | 18 | -1 | 19 |
| 6 | Club Guarani | 16 | 6 | 7 | 3 | 18 | 14 | +4 | 25 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Sportivo Ameliano vs Club Guarani
- 30 August 2026Club Guarani 1–1 Sportivo AmelianoDivision Profesional - Clausura
- 16 May 2026Club Guarani 1–0 Sportivo AmelianoDivision Profesional - Apertura
- 15 March 2026Sportivo Ameliano 0–0 Club GuaraniDivision Profesional - Apertura
- 12 October 2025Sportivo Ameliano 1–1 Club GuaraniDivision Profesional - Clausura
- 31 July 2025Club Guarani 4–1 Sportivo AmelianoDivision Profesional - Clausura
- 18 May 2025Club Guarani 1–3 Sportivo AmelianoDivision Profesional - Apertura
Leading scorers: Sportivo Ameliano and Club Guarani
Sportivo Ameliano
GoalsAssists
- C. Ocampos53
- R. Torales51
- E. Moreira50
Club Guarani
GoalsAssists
- J. Recalde40
- S. Zaracho31
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Sportivo Ameliano carry a model rating of 6.36 against 6.52 for Club Guarani. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.27 goals for Sportivo Ameliano and 1.30 for Club Guarani. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Sportivo Ameliano rate 0.62 in attack and 1.66 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Club Guarani rate 0.65 and 1.26.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Sportivo Ameliano a 0% chance of the title and Club Guarani 0.2%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,309 correct results out of 4,819 settled predictions (48%), with 476 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Club Guarani the highest probability at 36%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Sportivo Ameliano against 1.30 for Club Guarani. Sportivo Ameliano's attack/defence rating is 0.62/1.66 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.65/1.26 for Club Guarani.
How the model reaches 36% for Club Guarani to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Club Guarani to win. Then home advantage takes away 7 points, Sportivo Ameliano's ratings add 27 points and Club Guarani's ratings take away 20 points, which lands on the published 36%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage29%−7
- Sportivo Ameliano's ratings56%+27
- Club Guarani's ratings36%−20
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Sportivo Ameliano at home · Club Guarani away
League matches only, Division Profesional - Clausura, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Division Profesional - Clausura matches this season: Sportivo Ameliano 15, Club Guarani 16.
Sportivo Ameliano score most often in the 46–60 minute window (5 goals); Club Guarani have let in 5 there.
Club Guarani score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); Sportivo Ameliano have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Sportivo Ameliano
- at Sportivo Trinidense15 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 18%
- vs Sportivo Luqueno18 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 55%
- at Club Sp. San Lorenzo25 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 44%
Club Guarani
- vs Olimpia15 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 36%
- at Deportivo Recoleta18 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 43%
- at Cerro Porteno25 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 29%
- vs Sportivo Trinidense29 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 39%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.