Clausura - 19 · 15 November 2026, 21:00 UTC

Libertad Asuncion vs Nacional Asuncion Division Profesional - Clausura prediction

Estadio Tigo La Huerta

Our model says: Libertad Asuncion 0–1 Nacional Asuncion

The model makes it 29% Libertad Asuncion, 30% draw, 41% Nacional Asuncion — fair odds of 3.45, 3.33 and 2.44.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

Expected goals: Libertad Asuncion 0.97, Nacional Asuncion 1.27.

Both teams to score: 45%. Over 2.5 goals: 39%, under 2.5: 61%.

Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,574 settled matches.

Edge to Nacional Asuncion: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.

Published

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 1 November 2026. Libertad Asuncion's rating is built from 39 Paraguayan Primera División Clausura matches and Nacional Asuncion's from 39, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.

Key facts

  • Libertad Asuncion are 4th on 30 points from 17 games; Nacional Asuncion are 2nd on 32 points from 17 games — Division Profesional - Clausura.
  • Libertad Asuncion have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to Club Sp. San Lorenzo.
  • Nacional Asuncion have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-0 win away to Sportivo Luqueno.
  • Last 6 meetings: Nacional Asuncion 4 wins to 2, 0 draws; the most recent, 2 September 2026, ended Nacional Asuncion 3–0 Libertad Asuncion.

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Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Libertad Asuncion vs Nacional Asuncion

45%
Both teams to score
39%
Over 2.5 goals
61%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Libertad Asuncion win Draw Nacional Asuncion win
  1. 1–114%
  2. 0–113%
  3. 0–011%
  4. 1–010%
  5. 0–29%
  6. 1–28%
  7. 2–16%

Scores read Libertad Asuncion first; the other scorelines share the remaining 29%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Nacional Asuncion at 41%: of 2,529 settled 40–50% forecasts, 45.4% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Libertad Asuncion vs Nacional Asuncion

Libertad Asuncion

Division Profesional - Clausura

  • L1-2away to Club Sp. San Lorenzo31 October 2026
  • W1-0Sportivo Luqueno23 October 2026
  • L0-1away to Sportivo Trinidense18 October 2026
  • D2-2Club Guarani11 October 2026
  • W2-1away to Deportivo Recoleta5 October 2026

Nacional Asuncion

Division Profesional - Clausura

  • W3-0away to Sportivo Luqueno31 October 2026
  • L0-1Sportivo Trinidense24 October 2026
  • W2-0away to Club Guarani17 October 2026
  • W1-0Deportivo Recoleta12 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Olimpia6 October 2026

What these results say

  • Libertad Asuncion scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Libertad Asuncion conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Nacional Asuncion scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Nacional Asuncion had two goals or fewer.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Division Profesional - Clausura table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
4Libertad Asuncion179352519+630
2Nacional Asuncion17953269+1732

Where the two sides stand. Full table

Head-to-head: Libertad Asuncion vs Nacional Asuncion

  • 2 September 2026Nacional Asuncion 3–0 Libertad AsuncionDivision Profesional - Clausura
  • 24 May 2026Nacional Asuncion 2–1 Libertad AsuncionDivision Profesional - Apertura
  • 18 March 2026Libertad Asuncion 2–1 Nacional AsuncionDivision Profesional - Apertura
  • 27 September 2025Nacional Asuncion 3–1 Libertad AsuncionDivision Profesional - Clausura
  • 19 July 2025Libertad Asuncion 0–1 Nacional AsuncionDivision Profesional - Clausura
  • 11 April 2025Libertad Asuncion 1–0 Nacional AsuncionDivision Profesional - Apertura

Leading scorers: Libertad Asuncion and Nacional Asuncion

Libertad Asuncion

GoalsAssists

  • E. Vera152
  • I. Ramirez33

Nacional Asuncion

GoalsAssists

  • I. Valdez61
  • H. Benítez56

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The two sides

Libertad Asuncion carry a model rating of 6.47 against 6.78 for Nacional Asuncion.

What the model expects

Under the hood the model expects 0.97 goals for Libertad Asuncion and 1.27 for Nacional Asuncion.

Libertad Asuncion rate 0.68 in attack and 1.46 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Nacional Asuncion rate 0.72 and 0.88.

The rest of the season

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Libertad Asuncion a 1.5% chance of the title and Nacional Asuncion 28.4%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Nacional Asuncion the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.97 expected goals for Libertad Asuncion against 1.27 for Nacional Asuncion. Libertad Asuncion's attack/defence rating is 0.68/1.46 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.72/0.88 for Nacional Asuncion.

How the model reaches 41% for Nacional Asuncion to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Nacional Asuncion to win. Then home advantage takes away 7 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Libertad Asuncion's ratings add 7 points and Nacional Asuncion's ratings add 6 points, which lands on the published 41%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage29%−7
  3. Both sides at this match's level28%−1
  4. Libertad Asuncion's ratings35%+7
  5. Nacional Asuncion's ratings41%+6

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

Libertad AsuncionNacional Asuncion
17Matches17
9W 3D 5LRecord9W 5D 3L
25 1.5 per gameGoals scored26 1.5 per game
19 1.1 per gameGoals conceded9 0.5 per game
4 of 17Clean sheets10 of 17
3 of 17Failed to score3 of 17
4 of 4Penalties scored1 of 2
33 1.9 per gameYellow cards30 1.8 per game
2Red cards3
4-4-2 10×Usual shape4-1-4-1 9×

Libertad Asuncion at home · Nacional Asuncion away

8Played9
5W 2D 1LRecord4W 3D 2L
15–8Goals for – against14–7
2 of 8Clean sheets4 of 9

League matches only, Division Profesional - Clausura, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Division Profesional - Clausura matches this season: Libertad Asuncion 17, Nacional Asuncion 17.

Libertad Asuncion scored 334555
Nacional Asuncion conceded 101231
Nacional Asuncion scored 544526
Libertad Asuncion conceded 435132

Nacional Asuncion score most often in the 76–90 minute window (6 goals); Libertad Asuncion have let in 2 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 3 matches, by difficulty

Libertad Asuncion

  • at Rubio NU18 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 38%
  • vs 2 de Mayo25 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 47%
  • at Sportivo Ameliano29 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 37%

Nacional Asuncion

  • vs Cerro Porteno18 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 53%
  • vs Rubio NU25 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 67%
  • at 2 de Mayo29 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 43%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.