Libertad Asuncion
vs
Cerro Porteno
Division Profesional - Clausura prediction
Our model says: Libertad Asuncion 2–1 Cerro Porteno
The model makes it 44% Libertad Asuncion, 27% draw, 29% Cerro Porteno — fair odds of 2.27, 3.70 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Libertad Asuncion 1.62, Cerro Porteno 1.19.
Both teams to score: 56%. Over 2.5 goals: 53%, under 2.5: 47%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 45% of the time, over 2,236 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 25 October 2026. Libertad Asuncion's rating is built from 38 Paraguayan Primera División Clausura matches and Cerro Porteno's from 37, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Libertad Asuncion are 2nd on 30 points from 16 games; Cerro Porteno are 7th on 21 points from 15 games — Division Profesional - Clausura.
- Libertad Asuncion have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win at home to Sportivo Luqueno.
- Cerro Porteno have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-2 draw at home to Sportivo Ameliano.
- Last 6 meetings: Cerro Porteno 2 wins to 1, 3 draws; the most recent, 30 August 2026, ended Cerro Porteno 1–1 Libertad Asuncion.
More Paraguayan Primera División Clausura predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Libertad Asuncion vs Cerro Porteno
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Libertad Asuncion at 44% here. Across 4,776 settled matches (as of 25 October 2026), 2,217 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Libertad Asuncion vs Cerro Porteno
Libertad Asuncion
Division Profesional - Clausura
- W1-0Sportivo Luqueno23 October 2026
- L0-1away to Sportivo Trinidense18 October 2026
- D2-2Club Guarani11 October 2026
- W2-1away to Deportivo Recoleta5 October 2026
- L0-1Olimpia28 September 2026
Cerro Porteno
Division Profesional - Clausura
- D2-2Sportivo Ameliano18 October 2026
- W3-0away to Sportivo Luqueno10 October 2026
- L0-22 de Mayo5 October 2026
- L1-2away to Sportivo Trinidense26 September 2026
- W1-0Rubio NU19 September 2026
What these results say
- Libertad Asuncion conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Cerro Porteno scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Division Profesional - Clausura table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Libertad Asuncion | 16 | 9 | 3 | 4 | 24 | 17 | +7 | 30 |
| 7 | Cerro Porteno | 15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 20 | 16 | +4 | 21 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Libertad Asuncion vs Cerro Porteno
- 30 August 2026Cerro Porteno 1–1 Libertad AsuncionDivision Profesional - Clausura
- 21 March 2026Libertad Asuncion 2–3 Cerro PortenoDivision Profesional - Apertura
- 24 January 2026Cerro Porteno 1–1 Libertad AsuncionDivision Profesional - Apertura
- 23 November 2025Cerro Porteno 1–0 Libertad AsuncionDivision Profesional - Clausura
- 31 August 2025Libertad Asuncion 1–1 Cerro PortenoDivision Profesional - Clausura
- 5 April 2025Libertad Asuncion 1–0 Cerro PortenoDivision Profesional - Apertura
Leading scorers: Libertad Asuncion and Cerro Porteno
Libertad Asuncion
GoalsAssists
- E. Vera152
- I. Ramirez33
Cerro Porteno
GoalsAssists
- P. Vegetti70
- D. Rodríguez43
- J. Morel40
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Libertad Asuncion carry a model rating of 6.51 against 6.51 for Cerro Porteno. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.62 goals for Libertad Asuncion and 1.19 for Cerro Porteno. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Libertad Asuncion rate 0.72 in attack and 1.41 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Cerro Porteno rate 0.70 and 1.38.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Libertad Asuncion a 9.6% chance of the title and Cerro Porteno 0.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,309 correct results out of 4,819 settled predictions (48%), with 476 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Libertad Asuncion the highest probability at 44%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Libertad Asuncion against 1.19 for Cerro Porteno. Libertad Asuncion's attack/defence rating is 0.72/1.41 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.7/1.38 for Cerro Porteno.
How the model reaches 44% for Libertad Asuncion to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Libertad Asuncion to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, Libertad Asuncion's ratings take away 17 points and Cerro Porteno's ratings add 17 points, which lands on the published 44%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Libertad Asuncion's ratings27%−17
- Cerro Porteno's ratings44%+17
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Libertad Asuncion at home · Cerro Porteno away
League matches only, Division Profesional - Clausura, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Division Profesional - Clausura matches this season: Libertad Asuncion 16, Cerro Porteno 15.
Libertad Asuncion score most often in the 46–60 minute window (8 goals); Cerro Porteno have let in 5 there.
Cerro Porteno score most often in the 0–15 minute window (7 goals); Libertad Asuncion have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Libertad Asuncion
- vs Nacional Asuncion15 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 33%
- at Rubio NU18 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 44%
- vs 2 de Mayo25 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 50%
- at Sportivo Ameliano29 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 37%
Cerro Porteno
- vs Deportivo Recoleta15 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 61%
- at Nacional Asuncion18 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 20%
- vs Club Guarani25 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 42%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.