Nacional Asuncion
vs
Club Sp. San Lorenzo
Division Profesional - Clausura prediction
Our model says: Nacional Asuncion 2–0 Club Sp. San Lorenzo
The model makes it 73% Nacional Asuncion, 19% draw, 8% Club Sp. San Lorenzo — fair odds of 1.37, 5.26 and 12.50. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (17%).
Expected goals: Nacional Asuncion 2.30, Club Sp. San Lorenzo 0.44.
Both teams to score: 32%. Over 2.5 goals: 52%, under 2.5: 48%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 59% of the time, over 1,566 settled matches.
One-sided: Nacional Asuncion are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 25 October 2026. Nacional Asuncion's rating is built from 38 Paraguayan Primera División Clausura matches and Club Sp. San Lorenzo's from 15, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Nacional Asuncion are 4th on 29 points from 16 games; Club Sp. San Lorenzo are bottom on 4 points from 15 games — Division Profesional - Clausura.
- Nacional Asuncion have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to Sportivo Trinidense.
- Club Sp. San Lorenzo have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 2-3 defeat away to Sportivo Luqueno.
- Last 6 meetings: Nacional Asuncion 3 wins to 0, 3 draws; the most recent, 28 August 2026, ended Club Sp. San Lorenzo 0–3 Nacional Asuncion.
More Paraguayan Primera División Clausura predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Nacional Asuncion vs Club Sp. San Lorenzo
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Nacional Asuncion at 73% here. Across 4,776 settled matches (as of 25 October 2026), 378 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 65.1% of the time, against an average forecast of 73.5%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal. The full record.
Form going into Nacional Asuncion vs Club Sp. San Lorenzo
Nacional Asuncion
Division Profesional - Clausura
- L0-1Sportivo Trinidense24 October 2026
- W2-0away to Club Guarani17 October 2026
- W1-0Deportivo Recoleta12 October 2026
- D1-1away to Olimpia6 October 2026
- D1-1Sportivo Ameliano25 September 2026
Club Sp. San Lorenzo
Division Profesional - Clausura
- L2-3away to Sportivo Luqueno18 October 2026
- D1-1Sportivo Trinidense10 October 2026
- D1-1away to Club Guarani3 October 2026
- D0-0Deportivo Recoleta28 September 2026
- L0-3Olimpia20 September 2026
What these results say
- Every one of these 5 matches for Nacional Asuncion had two goals or fewer.
- Nacional Asuncion scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Club Sp. San Lorenzo did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Club Sp. San Lorenzo conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Division Profesional - Clausura table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Nacional Asuncion | 16 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 23 | 9 | +14 | 29 |
| 12 | Club Sp. San Lorenzo | 15 | 0 | 4 | 11 | 7 | 26 | -19 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Nacional Asuncion vs Club Sp. San Lorenzo
- 28 August 2026Club Sp. San Lorenzo 0–3 Nacional AsuncionDivision Profesional - Clausura
- 22 March 2026Club Sp. San Lorenzo 0–0 Nacional AsuncionDivision Profesional - Apertura
- 24 January 2026Nacional Asuncion 1–0 Club Sp. San LorenzoDivision Profesional - Apertura
- 25 October 2020Club Sp. San Lorenzo 1–1 Nacional AsuncionDivision Profesional - Clausura
- 21 August 2020Nacional Asuncion 2–0 Club Sp. San LorenzoDivision Profesional - Apertura
- 8 February 2020Club Sp. San Lorenzo 1–1 Nacional AsuncionDivision Profesional - Apertura
Leading scorers: Nacional Asuncion and Club Sp. San Lorenzo
Nacional Asuncion
GoalsAssists
- I. Valdez61
- H. Benítez56
Club Sp. San Lorenzo
No player in Division Profesional - Clausura's leading scorers — 7 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
A clear gap in the ratings
Nacional Asuncion carry a model rating of 6.73 against 6.04 for Club Sp. San Lorenzo. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 2.30 goals for Nacional Asuncion and 0.44 for Club Sp. San Lorenzo. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Nacional Asuncion rate 0.71 in attack and 0.94 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Club Sp. San Lorenzo rate 0.39 and 1.99.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Nacional Asuncion a 22.1% chance of the title and Club Sp. San Lorenzo 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,309 correct results out of 4,819 settled predictions (48%), with 476 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Nacional Asuncion the highest probability at 73%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.30 expected goals for Nacional Asuncion against 0.44 for Club Sp. San Lorenzo. Nacional Asuncion's attack/defence rating is 0.71/0.94 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.39/1.99 for Club Sp. San Lorenzo.
How the model reaches 73% for Nacional Asuncion to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Nacional Asuncion to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, Nacional Asuncion's ratings take away 9 points and Club Sp. San Lorenzo's ratings add 38 points, which lands on the published 73%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Nacional Asuncion's ratings35%−9
- Club Sp. San Lorenzo's ratings73%+38
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Nacional Asuncion at home · Club Sp. San Lorenzo away
League matches only, Division Profesional - Clausura, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Division Profesional - Clausura matches this season: Nacional Asuncion 16, Club Sp. San Lorenzo 15.
Nacional Asuncion score most often in the 46–60 minute window (6 goals); Club Sp. San Lorenzo have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Nacional Asuncion
- at Libertad Asuncion15 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 37%
- vs Cerro Porteno18 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 52%
- vs Rubio NU25 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 68%
- at 2 de Mayo29 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 42%
Club Sp. San Lorenzo
- vs Rubio NU15 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 34%
- at 2 de Mayo18 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 14%
- vs Sportivo Ameliano25 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 28%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.