Cerro Porteno
vs
Deportivo Recoleta
Division Profesional - Clausura prediction
Our model says: Cerro Porteno 2–1 Deportivo Recoleta
The model makes it 57% Cerro Porteno, 24% draw, 19% Deportivo Recoleta — fair odds of 1.75, 4.17 and 5.26.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Cerro Porteno 2.09, Deportivo Recoleta 1.01.
Both teams to score: 56%. Over 2.5 goals: 60%, under 2.5: 40%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 60% of the time, over 1,849 settled matches.
Edge to Cerro Porteno: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 1 November 2026. Cerro Porteno's rating is built from 38 Paraguayan Primera División Clausura matches and Deportivo Recoleta's from 39, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Cerro Porteno are 7th on 24 points from 16 games; Deportivo Recoleta are 11th on 15 points from 17 games — Division Profesional - Clausura.
- Cerro Porteno are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 3-1 win away to Club Sp. San Lorenzo.
- Deportivo Recoleta are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 3-0 win at home to Sportivo Ameliano.
- Last 6 meetings: Cerro Porteno 5 wins to 1, 0 draws; the most recent, 3 September 2026, ended Deportivo Recoleta 1–3 Cerro Porteno.
More Paraguayan Primera División Clausura predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Cerro Porteno vs Deportivo Recoleta
Has the model earned this number?
Cerro Porteno at 57%: of 1,376 settled 50–65% forecasts, 57.5% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Cerro Porteno vs Deportivo Recoleta
Cerro Porteno
Division Profesional - Clausura
- W3-1away to Club Sp. San Lorenzo25 October 2026
- D2-2Sportivo Ameliano18 October 2026
- W3-0away to Sportivo Luqueno10 October 2026
- L0-22 de Mayo5 October 2026
- L1-2away to Sportivo Trinidense26 September 2026
Deportivo Recoleta
Division Profesional - Clausura
- W3-0Sportivo Ameliano31 October 2026
- D1-1away to 2 de Mayo24 October 2026
- W1-0Rubio NU16 October 2026
- L0-1away to Nacional Asuncion12 October 2026
- L1-2Libertad Asuncion5 October 2026
What these results say
- Cerro Porteno scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Cerro Porteno conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Cerro Porteno had three goals or more.
- Deportivo Recoleta scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Division Profesional - Clausura table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Cerro Porteno | 16 | 7 | 3 | 6 | 23 | 17 | +6 | 24 |
| 11 | Deportivo Recoleta | 17 | 4 | 3 | 10 | 19 | 28 | -9 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Cerro Porteno vs Deportivo Recoleta
- 3 September 2026Deportivo Recoleta 1–3 Cerro PortenoDivision Profesional - Clausura
- 3 May 2026Deportivo Recoleta 2–1 Cerro PortenoDivision Profesional - Apertura
- 1 March 2026Cerro Porteno 2–0 Deportivo RecoletaDivision Profesional - Apertura
- 3 October 2025Cerro Porteno 2–0 Deportivo RecoletaDivision Profesional - Clausura
- 26 July 2025Deportivo Recoleta 1–3 Cerro PortenoDivision Profesional - Clausura
- 28 April 2025Deportivo Recoleta 1–3 Cerro PortenoDivision Profesional - Apertura
Leading scorers: Cerro Porteno and Deportivo Recoleta
Cerro Porteno
GoalsAssists
- P. Vegetti80
- D. Rodríguez44
- J. Morel40
Deportivo Recoleta
GoalsAssists
- A. Wlk131
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The two sides
Cerro Porteno carry a model rating of 6.52 against 6.31 for Deportivo Recoleta.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 2.09 goals for Cerro Porteno and 1.01 for Deportivo Recoleta.
Cerro Porteno rate 0.71 in attack and 1.37 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Deportivo Recoleta rate 0.61 and 1.81.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Cerro Porteno a 0.1% chance of the title and Deportivo Recoleta 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Cerro Porteno the highest probability at 57%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.09 expected goals for Cerro Porteno against 1.01 for Deportivo Recoleta. Cerro Porteno's attack/defence rating is 0.71/1.37 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.61/1.81 for Deportivo Recoleta.
How the model reaches 57% for Cerro Porteno to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Cerro Porteno to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, the level of the two sides adds 1 point, Cerro Porteno's ratings add 5 points and Deportivo Recoleta's ratings add 7 points, which lands on the published 57%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Both sides at this match's level45%+1
- Cerro Porteno's ratings50%+5
- Deportivo Recoleta's ratings57%+7
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Cerro Porteno at home · Deportivo Recoleta away
League matches only, Division Profesional - Clausura, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Division Profesional - Clausura matches this season: Cerro Porteno 16, Deportivo Recoleta 17.
Deportivo Recoleta score most often in the 46–60 minute window (5 goals); Cerro Porteno have let in 6 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Cerro Porteno
- at Nacional Asuncion18 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 19%
- vs Club Guarani25 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 42%
- at Rubio NU29 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 41%
Deportivo Recoleta
- vs Club Guarani18 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 31%
- at Sportivo Trinidense25 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 19%
- vs Sportivo Luqueno29 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 53%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.