Cerro Porteno
vs
Olimpia
Division Profesional - Clausura prediction
Our model says: Cerro Porteno 1–0 Olimpia
The model makes it 36% Cerro Porteno, 28% draw, 36% Olimpia — fair odds of 2.78, 3.57 and 2.78. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Cerro Porteno 1.31, Olimpia 1.33.
Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 49%, under 2.5: 51%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 37% of the time, over 930 settled matches.
A tight game: Cerro Porteno and Olimpia are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 21 October 2026. Cerro Porteno's rating is built from 37 Paraguayan Primera División Clausura matches and Olimpia's from 37, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Cerro Porteno are 7th on 21 points from 15 games; Olimpia are top on 30 points from 15 games — Division Profesional - Clausura.
- Cerro Porteno have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-2 draw at home to Sportivo Ameliano.
- Olimpia are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 3-0 win at home to 2 de Mayo.
- Last 6 meetings: Olimpia 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 23 August 2026, ended Olimpia 2–1 Cerro Porteno.
More Paraguayan Primera División Clausura predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Cerro Porteno vs Olimpia
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Cerro Porteno at 36% here. Across 4,371 settled matches (as of 21 October 2026), 3,397 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Cerro Porteno vs Olimpia
Cerro Porteno
- D2-2Sportivo Ameliano18 October 2026
- W3-0away to Sportivo Luqueno10 October 2026
- L0-22 de Mayo5 October 2026
- L1-2away to Sportivo Trinidense26 September 2026
- W1-0Rubio NU19 September 2026
Olimpia
- W3-02 de Mayo17 October 2026
- D0-0away to Rubio NU11 October 2026
- D1-1Nacional Asuncion6 October 2026
- W1-0away to Libertad Asuncion28 September 2026
- W3-0away to Club Sp. San Lorenzo20 September 2026
What these results say
- Cerro Porteno scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Olimpia went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Olimpia scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Olimpia kept a clean sheet in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Division Profesional - Clausura table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Cerro Porteno | 15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 20 | 16 | +4 | 21 |
| 1 | Olimpia | 15 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 25 | 10 | +15 | 30 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Cerro Porteno
Chance to finish in the top four · 7% today
Olimpia
Chance to win the league · 43% today
From our Division Profesional - Clausura season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Cerro Porteno vs Olimpia
- 23 August 2026Olimpia 2–1 Cerro PortenoDivision Profesional - Clausura
- 19 April 2026Olimpia 3–0 Cerro PortenoDivision Profesional - Apertura
- 21 February 2026Cerro Porteno 0–1 OlimpiaDivision Profesional - Apertura
- 19 October 2025Cerro Porteno 1–1 OlimpiaDivision Profesional - Clausura
- 3 August 2025Olimpia 2–3 Cerro PortenoDivision Profesional - Clausura
- 3 May 2025Cerro Porteno 1–2 OlimpiaDivision Profesional - Apertura
Leading scorers: Cerro Porteno and Olimpia
Cerro Porteno
GoalsAssists
- P. Vegetti71
- D. Rodríguez43
- J. Morel40
Olimpia
GoalsAssists
- A. Alcaraz71
- S. Quintana41
- H. Sandoval40
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Cerro Porteno carry a model rating of 6.51 against 6.67 for Olimpia. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.31 goals for Cerro Porteno and 1.33 for Olimpia. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Cerro Porteno rate 0.69 in attack and 1.36 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Olimpia rate 0.81 and 1.17.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Olimpia, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Cerro Porteno a 0% chance of the title and Olimpia 42.7%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,110 correct results out of 4,378 settled predictions (48%), with 443 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Cerro Porteno the highest probability at 36%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Cerro Porteno against 1.33 for Olimpia. Cerro Porteno's attack/defence rating is 0.69/1.36 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.81/1.17 for Olimpia.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Cerro Porteno at home · Olimpia away
League matches only, Division Profesional - Clausura, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Division Profesional - Clausura matches this season: Cerro Porteno 15, Olimpia 15.
Cerro Porteno score most often in the 0–15 minute window (7 goals); Olimpia have let in 0 there.
Olimpia score most often in the 76–90 minute window (7 goals); Cerro Porteno have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Cerro Porteno
- at Libertad Asuncion8 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 29%
- vs Deportivo Recoleta15 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 60%
- at Nacional Asuncion18 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 19%
- vs Club Guarani25 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 44%
Olimpia
- vs Deportivo Recoleta8 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 69%
- at Club Guarani15 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 37%
- vs Sportivo Trinidense18 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 49%
- at Sportivo Luqueno25 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 55%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.