2 de Mayo
vs
Sportivo Trinidense
Division Profesional - Clausura prediction
Our model says: 2 de Mayo 0–1 Sportivo Trinidense
The model makes it 33% 2 de Mayo, 29% draw, 38% Sportivo Trinidense — fair odds of 3.03, 3.45 and 2.63. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: 2 de Mayo 1.23, Sportivo Trinidense 1.36.
Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 48%, under 2.5: 52%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,027 settled matches.
Edge to Sportivo Trinidense: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 25 October 2026. 2 de Mayo's rating is built from 38 Paraguayan Primera División Clausura matches and Sportivo Trinidense's from 38, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- 2 de Mayo are 5th on 29 points from 16 games; Sportivo Trinidense are 3rd on 30 points from 16 games — Division Profesional - Clausura.
- 2 de Mayo have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Deportivo Recoleta.
- Sportivo Trinidense are unbeaten in their last 5 games (4 won), most recently a 1-0 win away to Nacional Asuncion.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 3 wins each, 0 draws; the most recent, 29 August 2026, ended Sportivo Trinidense 0–1 2 de Mayo.
More Paraguayan Primera División Clausura predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: 2 de Mayo vs Sportivo Trinidense
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Sportivo Trinidense at 38% here. Across 4,776 settled matches (as of 25 October 2026), 3,676 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into 2 de Mayo vs Sportivo Trinidense
2 de Mayo
Division Profesional - Clausura
- D1-1Deportivo Recoleta24 October 2026
- L0-3away to Olimpia17 October 2026
- W1-0Sportivo Ameliano12 October 2026
- W2-0away to Cerro Porteno5 October 2026
- D2-2away to Rubio NU26 September 2026
Sportivo Trinidense
Division Profesional - Clausura
- W1-0away to Nacional Asuncion24 October 2026
- W1-0Libertad Asuncion18 October 2026
- D1-1away to Club Sp. San Lorenzo10 October 2026
- W3-2Sportivo Luqueno5 October 2026
- W2-1Cerro Porteno26 September 2026
What these results say
- 2 de Mayo scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Sportivo Trinidense went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Sportivo Trinidense scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Sportivo Trinidense won 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Division Profesional - Clausura table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 2 de Mayo | 16 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 18 | 17 | +1 | 29 |
| 3 | Sportivo Trinidense | 16 | 9 | 3 | 4 | 26 | 14 | +12 | 30 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: 2 de Mayo vs Sportivo Trinidense
- 29 August 2026Sportivo Trinidense 0–1 2 de MayoDivision Profesional - Clausura
- 1 May 2026Sportivo Trinidense 1–2 2 de MayoDivision Profesional - Apertura
- 28 February 20262 de Mayo 1–0 Sportivo TrinidenseDivision Profesional - Apertura
- 25 October 2025Sportivo Trinidense 2–1 2 de MayoDivision Profesional - Clausura
- 8 August 20252 de Mayo 0–2 Sportivo TrinidenseDivision Profesional - Clausura
- 9 May 2025Sportivo Trinidense 2–1 2 de MayoDivision Profesional - Apertura
Leading scorers: 2 de Mayo and Sportivo Trinidense
2 de Mayo
GoalsAssists
- D. Acosta51
Sportivo Trinidense
GoalsAssists
- F. Romero71
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
2 de Mayo carry a model rating of 6.41 against 6.61 for Sportivo Trinidense. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.23 goals for 2 de Mayo and 1.36 for Sportivo Trinidense. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
2 de Mayo rate 0.61 in attack and 1.48 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Sportivo Trinidense rate 0.76 and 1.24.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives 2 de Mayo a 2% chance of the title and Sportivo Trinidense 14.9%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,338 correct results out of 4,879 settled predictions (48%), with 481 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Sportivo Trinidense the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.23 expected goals for 2 de Mayo against 1.36 for Sportivo Trinidense. 2 de Mayo's attack/defence rating is 0.61/1.48 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.76/1.24 for Sportivo Trinidense.
How the model reaches 38% for Sportivo Trinidense to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Sportivo Trinidense to win. Then home advantage takes away 7 points, 2 de Mayo's ratings add 23 points and Sportivo Trinidense's ratings take away 14 points, which lands on the published 38%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage29%−7
- 2 de Mayo's ratings52%+23
- Sportivo Trinidense's ratings38%−14
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
2 de Mayo at home · Sportivo Trinidense away
League matches only, Division Profesional - Clausura, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Division Profesional - Clausura matches this season: 2 de Mayo 16, Sportivo Trinidense 16.
Sportivo Trinidense score most often in the 76–90 minute window (9 goals); 2 de Mayo have let in 4 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
2 de Mayo
- at Sportivo Luqueno15 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 39%
- vs Club Sp. San Lorenzo18 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 62%
- at Libertad Asuncion25 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 24%
- vs Nacional Asuncion29 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 28%
Sportivo Trinidense
- vs Sportivo Ameliano15 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 58%
- at Olimpia18 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 26%
- vs Deportivo Recoleta25 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 66%
- at Club Guarani29 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 32%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.