Club Guarani
vs
Olimpia
Division Profesional - Clausura prediction
Our model says: Club Guarani 1–0 Olimpia
The model makes it 37% Club Guarani, 29% draw, 34% Olimpia — fair odds of 2.70, 3.45 and 2.94.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Club Guarani 1.27, Olimpia 1.18.
Both teams to score: 51%. Over 2.5 goals: 44%, under 2.5: 56%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,155 settled matches.
A tight game: Club Guarani and Olimpia are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 1 November 2026. Club Guarani's rating is built from 39 Paraguayan Primera División Clausura matches and Olimpia's from 38, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Club Guarani are 6th on 28 points from 17 games; Olimpia are top on 33 points from 16 games — Division Profesional - Clausura.
- Club Guarani have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win at home to 2 de Mayo.
- Olimpia are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 3-2 win away to Sportivo Ameliano.
- Last 6 meetings: Club Guarani 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 2 September 2026, ended Olimpia 1–1 Club Guarani.
More Paraguayan Primera División Clausura predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Club Guarani vs Olimpia
Has the model earned this number?
Club Guarani at 37%: of 4,156 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.5% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Club Guarani vs Olimpia
Club Guarani
Division Profesional - Clausura
- W1-02 de Mayo30 October 2026
- W2-0away to Rubio NU23 October 2026
- L0-2Nacional Asuncion17 October 2026
- D2-2away to Libertad Asuncion11 October 2026
- D1-1Club Sp. San Lorenzo3 October 2026
Olimpia
Division Profesional - Clausura
- W3-2away to Sportivo Ameliano25 October 2026
- W3-02 de Mayo17 October 2026
- D0-0away to Rubio NU11 October 2026
- D1-1Nacional Asuncion6 October 2026
- W1-0away to Libertad Asuncion28 September 2026
What these results say
- Club Guarani scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Club Guarani had two goals or fewer.
- Olimpia went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Olimpia scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Division Profesional - Clausura table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Club Guarani | 17 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 19 | 14 | +5 | 28 |
| 1 | Olimpia | 16 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 28 | 12 | +16 | 33 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Club Guarani vs Olimpia
- 2 September 2026Olimpia 1–1 Club GuaraniDivision Profesional - Clausura
- 21 March 2026Club Guarani 0–2 OlimpiaDivision Profesional - Apertura
- 25 January 2026Olimpia 2–1 Club GuaraniDivision Profesional - Apertura
- 26 October 2025Olimpia 1–3 Club GuaraniDivision Profesional - Clausura
- 10 August 2025Club Guarani 4–0 OlimpiaDivision Profesional - Clausura
- 6 April 2025Club Guarani 2–1 OlimpiaDivision Profesional - Apertura
Leading scorers: Club Guarani and Olimpia
Club Guarani
GoalsAssists
- V. Céspedes32
Olimpia
GoalsAssists
- A. Alcaraz71
- S. Quintana41
- H. Sandoval40
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Club Guarani carry a model rating of 6.55 against 6.66 for Olimpia.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.27 goals for Club Guarani and 1.18 for Olimpia.
Club Guarani rate 0.63 in attack and 1.17 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Olimpia rate 0.84 and 1.24.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Olimpia, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Club Guarani a 0.3% chance of the title and Olimpia 67%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Club Guarani the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Club Guarani against 1.18 for Olimpia. Club Guarani's attack/defence rating is 0.63/1.17 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.84/1.24 for Olimpia.
How the model reaches 37% for Club Guarani to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Club Guarani to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Club Guarani's ratings take away 4 points and Olimpia's ratings take away 2 points, which lands on the published 37%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Both sides at this match's level43%−1
- Club Guarani's ratings39%−4
- Olimpia's ratings37%−2
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Club Guarani at home · Olimpia away
League matches only, Division Profesional - Clausura, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Division Profesional - Clausura matches this season: Club Guarani 17, Olimpia 16.
Club Guarani score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); Olimpia have let in 1 there.
Olimpia score most often in the 76–90 minute window (7 goals); Club Guarani have let in 3 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Club Guarani
- at Deportivo Recoleta18 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 40%
- at Cerro Porteno25 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 29%
- vs Sportivo Trinidense29 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 43%
Olimpia
- vs Sportivo Trinidense18 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 52%
- at Sportivo Luqueno25 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 56%
- vs Club Sp. San Lorenzo29 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 75%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.