Leganes
vs
Albacete
Segunda División prediction
Our model says: Leganes 1–0 Albacete
The model makes it 39% Leganes, 31% draw, 30% Albacete — fair odds of 2.56, 3.23 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Leganes 1.21, Albacete 1.00.
Both teams to score: 45%. Over 2.5 goals: 38%, under 2.5: 62%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 957 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 24 October 2026. Leganes's rating is built from 52 Segunda División matches and Albacete's from 52, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,047 matches.
Key facts
- Leganes are 17th on 11 points from 10 games; Albacete are bottom on 1 point from 10 games — Segunda División.
- Leganes are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to Cordoba.
- Albacete have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to Sporting Gijon.
- Last 6 meetings: Leganes 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 17 July 2026, ended Leganes 0–0 Albacete.
More Segunda División predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Leganes vs Albacete
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Leganes at 39% here. Across 4,534 settled matches (as of 24 October 2026), 3,490 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Leganes vs Albacete
Leganes
Segunda División
- L0-1Cordoba16 October 2026
- L0-3away to Almeria11 October 2026
- L0-4away to Cadiz3 October 2026
- L0-2Castellón28 September 2026
- W3-2Granada CF20 September 2026
Albacete
Segunda División
- L1-2away to Sporting Gijon17 October 2026
- L0-5away to Valladolid12 October 2026
- L1-3Eibar3 October 2026
- L0-2away to Girona25 September 2026
- L1-2Cordoba18 September 2026
What these results say
- Leganes conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Leganes failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Leganes failed to score in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Albacete did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Albacete conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Albacete had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Leganes | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 15 | -9 | 11 |
| 22 | Albacete | 10 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 6 | 22 | -16 | 1 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Leganes vs Albacete
- 17 July 2026Leganes 0–0 AlbaceteFriendlies Clubs
- 11 April 2026Leganes 2–1 AlbaceteSegunda División
- 4 January 2026Albacete 1–3 LeganesSegunda División
- 4 December 2025Leganes 1–2 AlbaceteCopa del Rey
- 12 May 2024Albacete 1–0 LeganesSegunda División
- 27 August 2023Leganes 2–0 AlbaceteSegunda División
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Leganes carry a model rating of 6.3 against 6.31 for Albacete. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.21 goals for Leganes and 1.00 for Albacete. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Leganes rate 0.47 in attack and 1.47 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Albacete rate 0.57 and 1.67.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,192 correct results out of 4,558 settled predictions (48%), with 452 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Leganes the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Leganes against 1.00 for Albacete. Leganes's attack/defence rating is 0.47/1.47 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.57/1.67 for Albacete.
How the model reaches 39% for Leganes to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Leganes to win. Then home advantage adds 7 points, Leganes's ratings take away 26 points and Albacete's ratings add 22 points, which lands on the published 39%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage43%+7
- Leganes's ratings17%−26
- Albacete's ratings39%+22
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Leganes at home · Albacete away
League matches only, Segunda División, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
LeganesAlbacete
Leganes are 17th after 10 Segunda División matches (between 1st and 17th so far); Albacete are 22nd after 10 (between 18th and 22nd). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Segunda División matches this season: Leganes 10, Albacete 10.
Albacete score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Leganes have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Leganes
- vs Burgos13 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 24%
- at FC Andorra22 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 20%
- vs Sabadell29 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 25%
Albacete
- vs Celta de Vigo II16 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 34%
- at Burgos22 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 17%
- vs Tenerife29 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 34%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.