Regular Season - 12 · 8 November 2026, 16:00 UTC

Sturm Graz vs Red Bull Salzburg Bundesliga prediction & result

Stadion Graz-Liebenau, Graz
Referee: Walter Altmann
Full time3 – 4

Final score: Sturm Graz 3-4 Red Bull Salzburg.

Before kick-off the model made it 33% Sturm Graz, 27% draw, 40% Red Bull Salzburg — fair odds of 3.03, 3.70 and 2.50.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

Expected goals: Sturm Graz 1.37, Red Bull Salzburg 1.58.

Both teams to score: 60%. Over 2.5 goals: 57%, under 2.5: 43%.

Model confidence: Medium.

Published

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Model insights: Sturm Graz vs Red Bull Salzburg

60%
Both teams to score
57%
Over 2.5 goals
43%
Under 2.5 goals
Most likely scorelines1-1 12%1-2 9%2-1 8%

Has the model earned this number?

Red Bull Salzburg at 40%: of 2,924 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.0% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Sturm Graz0%Draw5%Red Bull Salzburg95%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 7 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

5'
⚽Haris Tabakovićassist: Bartosz Mazurek
⚽Oumar Diakitéassist: Jurgen Heil
14'
•Oumar Diakité
15'
⚽Oumar Diakitéassist: Jon Gorenc Stanković
18'
29'
⚽Leandro Morgallaassist: Bartosz Mazurek
32'
Danny Röhl
55'
Soumaila Diabate
59'
🔁Soumaila Diabateout: Yorbe Vertessen
🔁Jacob Peter Hödlout: Valmir Matoshi
66'
67'
⚽Damir Redzicassist: Yorbe Vertessen
⚽Jon Gorenc Stankovićassist: Arjan Malić
70'
74'
⚽Jesper Lindstromassist: Abubakr Barry
Arjan Malić
75'
77'
Haris Tabaković
🔁Jurgen Heilout: Gizo Mamageishvili
77'
77'
🔁Damir Redzicout: Edmund Baidoo
🔁Simon Seidlout: Seedy Jatta
78'
85'
🔁Jesper Lindstromout: Umut Deger Tohumcu
85'
🔁Leandro Morgallaout: Anrie Chase
🔁Luis Balboout: Albert Vallci
89'
89'
Umut Deger Tohumcu

Match stats — Sturm Graz vs Red Bull Salzburg

46%Possession54%
12Shots13
5On target5
1Corners2
0.97xG2.15

Goals against chances

Sturm Graz3 from 0.97 xGmore than the chances were worth
Red Bull Salzburg4 from 2.15 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Sturm Graz 3-4-2-1
  • 22A. HelacG
  • 23A. MalicD
  • 2J. QuarshieD
  • 30P. KollerD
  • 28J. HeilM
  • 39Luca WeinhandlM
  • 4J. Gorenc StankovičM
  • 27L. BalboM
  • 19S. SeidlM
  • 43Jacob Peter HödlM
  • 14O. DiakitéF
Substitutes
  • 26B. BeganovićF
  • 40J. HalwachsM
  • 20S. JattaF
  • 15G. MamageishviliM
  • 78V. MatoshiM
  • 21P. PetrovićD
  • 1Adam StejskalG
  • 5A. VallciD
  • 17S. WłodarczykF
Coach: F. Ingolitsch
Red Bull Salzburg 4-2-3-1
  • 52Christian ZawieschitzkyG
  • 39L. MorgallaD
  • 21T. DrexlerD
  • 47Valentin ZabranskyD
  • 13F. KrätzigD
  • 32A. BarryM
  • 5S. DiabatéM
  • 23D. RedzicM
  • 15B. MazurekM
  • 35J. LindstrømM
  • 9H. TabakovićF
Substitutes
  • 20E. BaidooF
  • 91A. ChaseD
  • 30G. DiakitéF
  • 1C. FrüchtlG
  • 19K. KonatéF
  • 22S. LainerD
  • 7U. TohumcuM
  • 48L. TraoréD
  • 11Y. VertessenF
Coach: D. Röhl

Form going into Sturm Graz vs Red Bull Salzburg

Sturm Graz

Bundesliga

  • D1-1away to Wolfsberger AC1 November 2026
  • D2-2Ried25 October 2026
  • W6-1Grazer AK18 October 2026
  • W2-0away to Austria Vienna10 October 2026

Red Bull Salzburg

Bundesliga

  • W5-1Austria Lustenau1 November 2026
  • W3-1away to Lask Linz25 October 2026
  • W3-0SCR Altach18 October 2026
  • D0-0away to Grazer AK10 October 2026

What these results say

  • Sturm Graz went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
  • Sturm Graz scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Sturm Graz conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Red Bull Salzburg went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
  • Red Bull Salzburg won 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Red Bull Salzburg scored in 3 of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Austria Bundesliga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
5Sturm Graz125432217+519
2Red Bull Salzburg12930339+2430

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Red Bull Salzburg vs Sturm Graz

Red Bull Salzburg and Sturm Graz have met 7 times in the records we hold, they have won 2 each, with 3 drawn.

The record

Red Bull Salzburg won the last one 4–3 on 8 Nov 2026.

ClubWDLGFGA
Red Bull Salzburg2321212
Sturm Graz2321212

Between them these 7 meetings produced 24 goals, an average of 3.43 a game.

Every meeting

Every recorded meeting, newest first.

  • 8 Nov 2026
    Bundesliga    Sturm Graz 3–4 Red Bull Salzburg
  • 20 Sep 2026
    Bundesliga    Red Bull Salzburg 3–0 Sturm Graz
  • 3 May 2026
    Bundesliga    Red Bull Salzburg 1–1 Sturm Graz
  • 20 Mar 2026
    Bundesliga    Sturm Graz 1–1 Red Bull Salzburg
  • 9 Nov 2025
    Bundesliga    Sturm Graz 1–1 Red Bull Salzburg
  • 20 Sep 2025
    Bundesliga    Red Bull Salzburg 0–2 Sturm Graz
  • 9 May 2025
    Bundesliga    Sturm Graz 4–2 Red Bull Salzburg

How the model rates them now

On the current ratings, Red Bull Salzburg's attack rates 21% above Sturm Graz's, and Red Bull Salzburg concede 17% fewer than Sturm Graz. That gives Red Bull Salzburg the edge at both ends. How the ratings are derived.

ClubAttackDefence
Red Bull Salzburg0.981.02
Sturm Graz0.811.23

More head-to-heads on this week’s board →

Leading scorers: Sturm Graz and Red Bull Salzburg

Sturm Graz

GoalsAssists

  • O. Diakité90

Red Bull Salzburg

GoalsAssists

  • H. Tabaković80
  • K. Konaté40
  • Y. Vertessen33

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

Written before kick-off and left as it stood — the reading below is the model's pre-match case, not a view formed after the result.

The rest of the season

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Sturm Graz a 0% chance of the title and Red Bull Salzburg 36.2%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Red Bull Salzburg a 30.9% chance to finish top of the regular season: 39.3% after a win, 28.4% after a draw, 21.9% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 39.3%, 8.4 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Bundesliga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Sturm Graz Red Bull Salzburg
0.81 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.98
1.23 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.02
1.37 Model expected goals (this match) 1.58

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Red Bull Salzburg the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Sturm Graz against 1.58 for Red Bull Salzburg. Sturm Graz's attack/defence rating is 0.81/1.23 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.98/1.02 for Red Bull Salzburg.

Sturm Graz carry a model rating of 6.64 against 6.83 for Red Bull Salzburg.

How the model reaches 40% for Red Bull Salzburg to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Red Bull Salzburg to win. Then home advantage takes away 5 points, Sturm Graz's ratings add 4 points and Red Bull Salzburg's ratings add 5 points, which lands on the published 40%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage31%−5
  3. Sturm Graz's ratings35%+4
  4. Red Bull Salzburg's ratings40%+5

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.