Sporting CP B
vs
Tondela
Segunda Liga prediction
Our model says: Sporting CP B 1–0 Tondela
The model makes it 45% Sporting CP B, 29% draw, 26% Tondela — fair odds of 2.22, 3.45 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Sporting CP B 1.43, Tondela 0.94.
Both teams to score: 47%. Over 2.5 goals: 42%, under 2.5: 58%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 45% of the time, over 2,236 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 25 October 2026. Sporting CP B's rating is built from 42 Liga Portugal 2 matches and Tondela's from 7, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Sporting CP B are top on 18 points from 8 games; Tondela are 7th on 12 points from 7 games — Segunda Liga.
- Sporting CP B have won 4 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-0 win at home to Portimonense.
- Tondela are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 1-0 win at home to Torreense.
More Liga Portugal 2 predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Sporting CP B vs Tondela
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Sporting CP B at 45% here. Across 4,776 settled matches (as of 25 October 2026), 2,217 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Sporting CP B vs Tondela
Sporting CP B
Segunda Liga
- W3-0Portimonense24 October 2026
- W2-0away to Vizela10 October 2026
- L1-2Lusitânia Lourosa14 September 2026
- W3-1away to Feirense5 September 2026
- W2-1Farense30 August 2026
Tondela
Segunda Liga
- W1-0Torreense10 October 2026
- W2-0away to Portimonense12 September 2026
- W3-0FC Porto B5 September 2026
- L0-2away to União de Leiria28 August 2026
- L0-2Academica21 August 2026
What these results say
- Sporting CP B scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Sporting CP B won 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Sporting CP B had three goals or more.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Tondela had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Segunda Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sporting CP B | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 6 | +7 | 18 |
| 7 | Tondela | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Sporting CP B carry a model rating of 6.53 against 6.48 for Tondela. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.43 goals for Sporting CP B and 0.94 for Tondela. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Sporting CP B rate 0.68 in attack and 1.30 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Tondela rate 0.60 and 1.29.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Sporting CP B a 15.7% chance of the title and Tondela 3.4%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,309 correct results out of 4,819 settled predictions (48%), with 476 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Sporting CP B the highest probability at 45%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Sporting CP B against 0.94 for Tondela. Sporting CP B's attack/defence rating is 0.68/1.3 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.6/1.29 for Tondela.
How the model reaches 45% for Sporting CP B to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Sporting CP B to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, Sporting CP B's ratings take away 17 points and Tondela's ratings add 18 points, which lands on the published 45%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Sporting CP B's ratings27%−17
- Tondela's ratings45%+18
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Sporting CP B at home · Tondela away
League matches only, Segunda Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Segunda Liga matches this season: Sporting CP B 8, Tondela 7.
Sporting CP B score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); Tondela have let in 1 there.
Tondela score most often in the 16–30 minute window (4 goals); Sporting CP B have let in 0 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Sporting CP B
- at União de Leiria15 Nov · Segunda Ligawin 34%
- vs Amarante30 Nov · Segunda Ligawin 58%
- at Torreense6 Dec · Segunda Ligawin 32%
- vs Academica13 Dec · Segunda Ligawin 45%
Tondela
- vs Farense15 Nov · Segunda Ligawin 43%
- at Chaves28 Nov · Segunda Ligawin 37%
- vs Penafiel6 Dec · Segunda Ligawin 39%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.