Farense
vs
Benfica B
Segunda Liga prediction
Our model says: Farense 1–0 Benfica B
The model makes it 38% Farense, 29% draw, 33% Benfica B — fair odds of 2.63, 3.45 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Farense 1.32, Benfica B 1.21.
Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 46%, under 2.5: 54%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,017 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 25 October 2026. Farense's rating is built from 44 Liga Portugal 2 matches and Benfica B's from 42, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Farense are 5th on 14 points from 8 games; Benfica B are 6th on 14 points from 8 games — Segunda Liga.
- Farense have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-4 defeat at home to Penafiel.
- Benfica B are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 0-0 draw away to Feirense.
- Last 6 meetings: Farense 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 22 March 2026, ended Benfica B 1–0 Farense.
More Liga Portugal 2 predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Farense vs Benfica B
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Farense at 38% here. Across 4,776 settled matches (as of 25 October 2026), 3,676 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Farense vs Benfica B
Farense
Segunda Liga
- L1-4Penafiel24 October 2026
- W2-1Feirense11 October 2026
- W4-0Chaves4 October 2026
- D0-0away to AVS13 September 2026
- L1-2away to Sporting CP B30 August 2026
Benfica B
Segunda Liga
- D0-0away to Feirense24 October 2026
- W1-0Felgueiras 193212 October 2026
- W3-0away to Academica11 September 2026
- L0-2Torreense5 September 2026
- L0-1away to Amarante30 August 2026
What these results say
- Farense scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Farense had three goals or more.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Benfica B had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Segunda Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Farense | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 14 | 10 | +4 | 14 |
| 6 | Benfica B | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 5 | +3 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Farense vs Benfica B
- 22 March 2026Benfica B 1–0 FarenseSegunda Liga
- 2 November 2025Farense 4–3 Benfica BSegunda Liga
- 19 May 2023Benfica B 0–1 FarenseSegunda Liga
- 15 January 2023Farense 5–2 Benfica BSegunda Liga
- 21 February 2022Benfica B 3–0 FarenseSegunda Liga
- 19 September 2021Farense 2–2 Benfica BSegunda Liga
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Farense carry a model rating of 6.45 against 6.56 for Benfica B. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.32 goals for Farense and 1.21 for Benfica B. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Farense rate 0.66 in attack and 1.46 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Benfica B rate 0.69 and 1.23.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Farense a 3.4% chance of the title and Benfica B 11.7%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,309 correct results out of 4,819 settled predictions (48%), with 476 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Farense the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Farense against 1.21 for Benfica B. Farense's attack/defence rating is 0.66/1.46 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.69/1.23 for Benfica B.
How the model reaches 38% for Farense to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Farense to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, Farense's ratings take away 20 points and Benfica B's ratings add 14 points, which lands on the published 38%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Farense's ratings24%−20
- Benfica B's ratings38%+14
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Farense at home · Benfica B away
League matches only, Segunda Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Segunda Liga matches this season: Farense 8, Benfica B 8.
Farense score most often in the 46–60 minute window (5 goals); Benfica B have let in 0 there.
Benfica B score most often in the 16–30 minute window (3 goals); Farense have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Farense
- at Tondela15 Nov · Segunda Ligawin 28%
- vs União de Leiria28 Nov · Segunda Ligawin 47%
- at Vizela6 Dec · Segunda Ligawin 33%
- vs Amarante13 Dec · Segunda Ligawin 55%
Benfica B
- vs AVS15 Nov · Segunda Ligawin 49%
- at Penafiel29 Nov · Segunda Ligawin 28%
- vs Lusitânia Lourosa6 Dec · Segunda Ligawin 49%
- vs Vizela13 Dec · Segunda Ligawin 54%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.