Felgueiras 1932
vs
Leixoes
Segunda Liga prediction
Our model says: Felgueiras 1932 1–0 Leixoes
The model makes it 40% Felgueiras 1932, 28% draw, 32% Leixoes — fair odds of 2.50, 3.57 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Felgueiras 1932 1.42, Leixoes 1.20.
Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 49%, under 2.5: 51%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,131 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 24 October 2026. Felgueiras 1932's rating is built from 41 Liga Portugal 2 matches and Leixoes's from 41, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Felgueiras 1932 are 15th on 6 points from 7 games; Leixoes are 10th on 10 points from 7 games — Segunda Liga.
- Felgueiras 1932 are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Benfica B.
- Leixoes have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat at home to FC Porto B.
- Last 4 meetings: Leixoes 2 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 17 January 2026, ended Felgueiras 1932 0–1 Leixoes.
More Liga Portugal 2 predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Felgueiras 1932 vs Leixoes
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Felgueiras 1932 at 40% here. Across 4,534 settled matches (as of 24 October 2026), 2,103 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Felgueiras 1932 vs Leixoes
Felgueiras 1932
Segunda Liga
- L0-1away to Benfica B12 October 2026
- L1-2Penafiel12 September 2026
- L0-1away to Vizela6 September 2026
- W2-1Chaves30 August 2026
- D1-1away to Farense24 August 2026
Leixoes
Segunda Liga
- L1-2FC Porto B10 October 2026
- D0-0away to Torreense11 September 2026
- W3-1Amarante6 September 2026
- W2-0away to Portimonense29 August 2026
- L2-4União de Leiria22 August 2026
What these results say
- Felgueiras 1932 conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Felgueiras 1932 failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Leixoes scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Segunda Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Felgueiras 1932 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 6 |
| 10 | Leixoes | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 8 | +1 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Felgueiras 1932 vs Leixoes
- 17 January 2026Felgueiras 1932 0–1 LeixoesSegunda Liga
- 10 August 2025Leixoes 3–0 Felgueiras 1932Segunda Liga
- 18 April 2025Felgueiras 1932 4–0 LeixoesSegunda Liga
- 7 December 2024Leixoes 2–2 Felgueiras 1932Segunda Liga
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Felgueiras 1932 carry a model rating of 6.38 against 6.43 for Leixoes. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.42 goals for Felgueiras 1932 and 1.20 for Leixoes. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Felgueiras 1932 rate 0.52 in attack and 1.38 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Leixoes rate 0.72 and 1.68.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Leixoes, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Felgueiras 1932 a 0.2% chance of the title and Leixoes 2.7%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,209 correct results out of 4,585 settled predictions (48%), with 455 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Felgueiras 1932 the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Felgueiras 1932 against 1.20 for Leixoes. Felgueiras 1932's attack/defence rating is 0.52/1.38 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.72/1.68 for Leixoes.
How the model reaches 40% for Felgueiras 1932 to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Felgueiras 1932 to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, Felgueiras 1932's ratings take away 23 points and Leixoes's ratings add 19 points, which lands on the published 40%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Felgueiras 1932's ratings21%−23
- Leixoes's ratings40%+19
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Felgueiras 1932 at home · Leixoes away
League matches only, Segunda Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Segunda Liga matches this season: Felgueiras 1932 7, Leixoes 7.
Leixoes score most often in the 76–90 minute window (3 goals); Felgueiras 1932 have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Felgueiras 1932
- at Amarante15 Nov · Segunda Ligawin 32%
- vs FC Porto B29 Nov · Segunda Ligawin 40%
- at Portimonense6 Dec · Segunda Ligawin 28%
Leixoes
- vs Chaves15 Nov · Segunda Ligawin 54%
- at AVS29 Nov · Segunda Ligawin 28%
- vs Feirense6 Dec · Segunda Ligawin 55%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.