Stuttgart II
vs
Verl
3. Liga prediction
Our model says: Stuttgart II 2–1 Verl
The model makes it 39% Stuttgart II, 26% draw, 35% Verl — fair odds of 2.56, 3.85 and 2.86. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Stuttgart II 1.63, Verl 1.49.
Both teams to score: 63%. Over 2.5 goals: 60%, under 2.5: 40%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,017 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 25 October 2026. Stuttgart II's rating is built from 49 3. Liga matches and Verl's from 49, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Stuttgart II are 12th on 14 points from 11 games; Verl are 15th on 12 points from 11 games — 3. Liga.
- Stuttgart II have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat at home to Alemannia Aachen.
- Verl are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 1-3 defeat away to FC Viktoria Köln.
- Last 4 meetings: Verl 1 win to 0, 3 draws; the most recent, 1 February 2026, ended Verl 4–0 Stuttgart II.
More 3. Liga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Stuttgart II vs Verl
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Stuttgart II at 39% here. Across 4,776 settled matches (as of 25 October 2026), 3,676 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Stuttgart II vs Verl
Stuttgart II
3. Liga
- L1-2Alemannia Aachen24 October 2026
- W1-0away to Fortuna Köln16 October 2026
- W3-2Hoffenheim II13 October 2026
- D1-1away to SV Meppen10 October 2026
- D3-3SSV Jahn Regensburg19 September 2026
Verl
3. Liga
- L1-3away to FC Viktoria Köln24 October 2026
- L1-2away to Hoffenheim II18 October 2026
- D2-2SSV Jahn Regensburg14 October 2026
- D2-2away to Fortuna Düsseldorf11 October 2026
- W2-1Würzburger Kickers18 September 2026
What these results say
- Stuttgart II scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Stuttgart II conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for Stuttgart II.
- Verl scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Verl conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Verl had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
3. Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Stuttgart II | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 18 | 20 | -2 | 14 |
| 15 | Verl | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 16 | 22 | -6 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Stuttgart II vs Verl
- 1 February 2026Verl 4–0 Stuttgart II3. Liga
- 23 August 2025Stuttgart II 1–1 Verl3. Liga
- 19 April 2025Stuttgart II 1–1 Verl3. Liga
- 23 November 2024Verl 2–2 Stuttgart II3. Liga
Leading scorers: Stuttgart II and Verl
Stuttgart II
No player in 3. Liga's leading scorers — 18 league goals as a side.
Verl
GoalsAssists
- D. Waidner20
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Stuttgart II carry a model rating of 6.18 against 6.28 for Verl. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.63 goals for Stuttgart II and 1.49 for Verl. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Stuttgart II rate 0.55 in attack and 2.13 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Verl rate 0.58 and 1.82.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Stuttgart II a 0.1% chance of the title and Verl 0.9%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,309 correct results out of 4,819 settled predictions (48%), with 476 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Stuttgart II the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.63 expected goals for Stuttgart II against 1.49 for Verl. Stuttgart II's attack/defence rating is 0.55/2.13 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.58/1.82 for Verl.
How the model reaches 39% for Stuttgart II to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Stuttgart II to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, Stuttgart II's ratings take away 31 points and Verl's ratings add 26 points, which lands on the published 39%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Stuttgart II's ratings13%−31
- Verl's ratings39%+26
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Stuttgart II at home · Verl away
League matches only, 3. Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All 3. Liga matches this season: Stuttgart II 11, Verl 11.
Verl score most often in the 46–60 minute window (4 goals); Stuttgart II have let in 5 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Stuttgart II
- vs FC Ingolstadt 0422 Nov · 3. Ligawin 39%
- at Waldhof Mannheim28 Nov · 3. Ligawin 30%
- vs SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach5 Dec · 3. Ligawin 58%
- at SV Wehen12 Dec · 3. Ligawin 23%
Verl
- vs Rot-Weiß Essen21 Nov · 3. Ligawin 41%
- at Preußen Münster28 Nov · 3. Ligawin 37%
- vs FC Ingolstadt 045 Dec · 3. Ligawin 44%
- at Hansa Rostock12 Dec · 3. Ligawin 28%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.