FC Porto B
vs
Portimonense
Segunda Liga prediction
Our model says: FC Porto B 2–1 Portimonense
The model makes it 54% FC Porto B, 24% draw, 22% Portimonense — fair odds of 1.85, 4.17 and 4.55. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: FC Porto B 2.02, Portimonense 1.11.
Both teams to score: 59%. Over 2.5 goals: 61%, under 2.5: 39%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 59% of the time, over 1,566 settled matches.
Edge to FC Porto B: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 25 October 2026. FC Porto B's rating is built from 41 Liga Portugal 2 matches and Portimonense's from 42, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- FC Porto B are 14th on 7 points from 7 games; Portimonense are 11th on 10 points from 8 games — Segunda Liga.
- FC Porto B have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-1 win away to Leixoes.
- Portimonense have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-3 defeat away to Sporting CP B.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 3 wins each, 0 draws; the most recent, 21 March 2026, ended Portimonense 2–1 FC Porto B.
More Liga Portugal 2 predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: FC Porto B vs Portimonense
Has the model earned this number?
It puts FC Porto B at 54% here. Across 4,776 settled matches (as of 25 October 2026), 1,179 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into FC Porto B vs Portimonense
FC Porto B
Segunda Liga
- W2-1away to Leixoes10 October 2026
- D2-2Vizela14 September 2026
- L0-3away to Tondela5 September 2026
- L0-3Penafiel30 August 2026
- W1-0away to Feirense24 August 2026
Portimonense
Segunda Liga
- L0-3away to Sporting CP B24 October 2026
- W2-1away to Amarante10 October 2026
- L0-2Tondela12 September 2026
- L0-1away to União de Leiria6 September 2026
- L0-2Leixoes29 August 2026
What these results say
- FC Porto B conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for FC Porto B had three goals or more.
- Portimonense conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Portimonense failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Portimonense failed to score in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Segunda Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | FC Porto B | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 14 | -8 | 7 |
| 11 | Portimonense | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 10 | -4 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: FC Porto B vs Portimonense
- 21 March 2026Portimonense 2–1 FC Porto BSegunda Liga
- 23 November 2025FC Porto B 1–0 PortimonenseSegunda Liga
- 11 May 2025Portimonense 0–3 FC Porto BSegunda Liga
- 12 January 2025FC Porto B 1–2 PortimonenseSegunda Liga
- 5 March 2017FC Porto B 1–0 PortimonenseSegunda Liga
- 28 September 2016Portimonense 3–0 FC Porto BSegunda Liga
The two sides
FC Porto B carry a model rating of 6.45 against 6.29 for Portimonense. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 2.02 goals for FC Porto B and 1.11 for Portimonense. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
FC Porto B rate 0.74 in attack and 1.68 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Portimonense rate 0.55 and 1.68.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Portimonense, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives FC Porto B a 1.3% chance of the title and Portimonense 0.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,309 correct results out of 4,819 settled predictions (48%), with 476 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FC Porto B the highest probability at 54%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.02 expected goals for FC Porto B against 1.11 for Portimonense. FC Porto B's attack/defence rating is 0.74/1.68 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.55/1.68 for Portimonense.
How the model reaches 54% for FC Porto B to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for FC Porto B to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, FC Porto B's ratings take away 20 points and Portimonense's ratings add 30 points, which lands on the published 54%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- FC Porto B's ratings24%−20
- Portimonense's ratings54%+30
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
FC Porto B at home · Portimonense away
League matches only, Segunda Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Segunda Liga matches this season: FC Porto B 7, Portimonense 8.
FC Porto B score most often in the 16–30 minute window (2 goals); Portimonense have let in 1 there.
Portimonense score most often in the 61–75 minute window (3 goals); FC Porto B have let in 0 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
FC Porto B
- vs Torreense15 Nov · Segunda Ligawin 45%
- at Felgueiras 193229 Nov · Segunda Ligawin 32%
- vs Academica6 Dec · Segunda Ligawin 41%
Portimonense
- vs Academica15 Nov · Segunda Ligawin 32%
- at Feirense27 Nov · Segunda Ligawin 31%
- vs Felgueiras 19326 Dec · Segunda Ligawin 39%
- at AVS13 Dec · Segunda Ligawin 22%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.