SV Meppen
vs
SSV Jahn Regensburg
3. Liga prediction
Our model says: SV Meppen 1–0 SSV Jahn Regensburg
The model makes it 41% SV Meppen, 29% draw, 30% SSV Jahn Regensburg — fair odds of 2.44, 3.45 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: SV Meppen 1.40, SSV Jahn Regensburg 1.11.
Both teams to score: 51%. Over 2.5 goals: 46%, under 2.5: 54%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 45% of the time, over 2,236 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 25 October 2026. SV Meppen's rating is built from 11 3. Liga matches and SSV Jahn Regensburg's from 49, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- SV Meppen are 11th on 14 points from 11 games; SSV Jahn Regensburg are 18th on 10 points from 11 games — 3. Liga.
- SV Meppen are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 4-0 win at home to Würzburger Kickers.
- SSV Jahn Regensburg are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Rot-Weiß Essen.
More 3. Liga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: SV Meppen vs SSV Jahn Regensburg
Has the model earned this number?
It puts SV Meppen at 41% here. Across 4,776 settled matches (as of 25 October 2026), 2,217 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into SV Meppen vs SSV Jahn Regensburg
SV Meppen
3. Liga
- W4-0Würzburger Kickers24 October 2026
- D1-1Havelse18 October 2026
- W2-0away to Hansa Rostock13 October 2026
- D1-1Stuttgart II10 October 2026
- L0-1away to Hoffenheim II19 September 2026
SSV Jahn Regensburg
3. Liga
- L0-1away to Rot-Weiß Essen23 October 2026
- D0-0SV Wehen17 October 2026
- D2-2away to Verl14 October 2026
- W5-0Havelse10 October 2026
- D3-3away to Stuttgart II19 September 2026
What these results say
- SV Meppen scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for SV Meppen had two goals or fewer.
- SSV Jahn Regensburg failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
3. Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | SV Meppen | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 16 | 17 | -1 | 14 |
| 18 | SSV Jahn Regensburg | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 20 | 20 | 0 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Leading scorers: SV Meppen and SSV Jahn Regensburg
SV Meppen
GoalsAssists
- J. Ehlers21
SSV Jahn Regensburg
GoalsAssists
- N. Boujellab31
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
SV Meppen carry a model rating of 6.23 against 6.26 for SSV Jahn Regensburg. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.40 goals for SV Meppen and 1.11 for SSV Jahn Regensburg. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
SV Meppen rate 0.48 in attack and 1.68 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; SSV Jahn Regensburg rate 0.55 and 1.79.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives SV Meppen a 0.2% chance of the title and SSV Jahn Regensburg 0.2%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,309 correct results out of 4,819 settled predictions (48%), with 476 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives SV Meppen the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.40 expected goals for SV Meppen against 1.11 for SSV Jahn Regensburg. SV Meppen's attack/defence rating is 0.48/1.68 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.55/1.79 for SSV Jahn Regensburg.
How the model reaches 41% for SV Meppen to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for SV Meppen to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, SV Meppen's ratings take away 28 points and SSV Jahn Regensburg's ratings add 25 points, which lands on the published 41%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- SV Meppen's ratings16%−28
- SSV Jahn Regensburg's ratings41%+25
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
SV Meppen at home · SSV Jahn Regensburg away
League matches only, 3. Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All 3. Liga matches this season: SV Meppen 11, SSV Jahn Regensburg 11.
SV Meppen score most often in the 31–45 minute window (5 goals); SSV Jahn Regensburg have let in 2 there.
SSV Jahn Regensburg score most often in the 31–45 minute window (7 goals); SV Meppen have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
SV Meppen
- at Fortuna Köln21 Nov · 3. Ligawin 31%
- at SV Wehen29 Nov · 3. Ligawin 25%
- vs Rot-Weiß Essen5 Dec · 3. Ligawin 37%
- at Preußen Münster12 Dec · 3. Ligawin 33%
SSV Jahn Regensburg
- vs Würzburger Kickers21 Nov · 3. Ligawin 55%
- at FC Ingolstadt 0429 Nov · 3. Ligawin 28%
- vs Preußen Münster5 Dec · 3. Ligawin 53%
- at Waldhof Mannheim12 Dec · 3. Ligawin 34%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.