Feirense
vs
Lusitânia Lourosa
Segunda Liga prediction
Our model says: Feirense 0–1 Lusitânia Lourosa
The model makes it 31% Feirense, 29% draw, 40% Lusitânia Lourosa — fair odds of 3.23, 3.45 and 2.50. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Feirense 1.10, Lusitânia Lourosa 1.34.
Both teams to score: 50%. Over 2.5 goals: 44%, under 2.5: 56%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 45% of the time, over 2,236 settled matches.
Edge to Lusitânia Lourosa: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 25 October 2026. Feirense's rating is built from 42 Liga Portugal 2 matches and Lusitânia Lourosa's from 41, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Feirense are bottom on 2 points from 8 games; Lusitânia Lourosa are 2nd on 17 points from 7 games — Segunda Liga.
- Feirense have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-0 draw at home to Benfica B.
- Lusitânia Lourosa are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Chaves.
- Last 4 meetings: Lusitânia Lourosa 3 wins to 1, 0 draws; the most recent, 22 February 2026, ended Lusitânia Lourosa 1–0 Feirense.
More Liga Portugal 2 predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Feirense vs Lusitânia Lourosa
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Lusitânia Lourosa at 40% here. Across 4,776 settled matches (as of 25 October 2026), 2,217 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Feirense vs Lusitânia Lourosa
Feirense
Segunda Liga
- D0-0Benfica B24 October 2026
- L1-2away to Farense11 October 2026
- L0-1away to Chaves13 September 2026
- L1-3Sporting CP B5 September 2026
- L0-2away to AVS30 August 2026
Lusitânia Lourosa
Segunda Liga
- D1-1Chaves11 October 2026
- W2-1away to Sporting CP B14 September 2026
- W2-1AVS7 September 2026
- W2-0away to Academica29 August 2026
- D2-2Torreense22 August 2026
What these results say
- Feirense did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Feirense conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Lusitânia Lourosa went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Lusitânia Lourosa scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Lusitânia Lourosa conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Segunda Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Feirense | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 10 | -8 | 2 |
| 2 | Lusitânia Lourosa | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 12 | 5 | +7 | 17 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Feirense vs Lusitânia Lourosa
- 22 February 2026Lusitânia Lourosa 1–0 FeirenseSegunda Liga
- 28 September 2025Feirense 1–2 Lusitânia LourosaSegunda Liga
- 2 June 2024Feirense 3–0 Lusitânia LourosaSegunda Liga
- 26 May 2024Lusitânia Lourosa 1–0 FeirenseSegunda Liga
The two sides
Feirense carry a model rating of 6.24 against 6.47 for Lusitânia Lourosa. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.10 goals for Feirense and 1.34 for Lusitânia Lourosa. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Feirense rate 0.44 in attack and 1.55 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Lusitânia Lourosa rate 0.72 and 1.53.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Feirense a 0% chance of the title and Lusitânia Lourosa 15%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,309 correct results out of 4,819 settled predictions (48%), with 476 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Lusitânia Lourosa the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Feirense against 1.34 for Lusitânia Lourosa. Feirense's attack/defence rating is 0.44/1.55 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.72/1.53 for Lusitânia Lourosa.
How the model reaches 40% for Lusitânia Lourosa to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Lusitânia Lourosa to win. Then home advantage takes away 7 points, Feirense's ratings add 30 points and Lusitânia Lourosa's ratings take away 19 points, which lands on the published 40%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage29%−7
- Feirense's ratings59%+30
- Lusitânia Lourosa's ratings40%−19
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Feirense at home · Lusitânia Lourosa away
League matches only, Segunda Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Segunda Liga matches this season: Feirense 8, Lusitânia Lourosa 7.
Lusitânia Lourosa score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); Feirense have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Feirense
- at Vizela15 Nov · Segunda Ligawin 23%
- vs Portimonense27 Nov · Segunda Ligawin 38%
- at Leixoes6 Dec · Segunda Ligawin 23%
- vs União de Leiria13 Dec · Segunda Ligawin 33%
Lusitânia Lourosa
- at Penafiel15 Nov · Segunda Ligawin 24%
- vs Vizela28 Nov · Segunda Ligawin 51%
- at Benfica B6 Dec · Segunda Ligawin 25%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.