Tondela
vs
Felgueiras 1932
Segunda Liga prediction
Our model says: Tondela 1–0 Felgueiras 1932
The model makes it 54% Tondela, 27% draw, 19% Felgueiras 1932 — fair odds of 1.85, 3.70 and 5.26. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (14%).
Expected goals: Tondela 1.66, Felgueiras 1932 0.79.
Both teams to score: 45%. Over 2.5 goals: 44%, under 2.5: 56%.
Model confidence: High.
Edge to Tondela: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Key facts
- Tondela are 7th on 12 points from 7 games; Felgueiras 1932 are 14th on 6 points from 7 games — Segunda Liga.
- Tondela are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 1-0 win at home to Torreense.
- Felgueiras 1932 are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Benfica B.
- Last 3 meetings: level at 1 win each, 1 draw; the most recent, 8 February 2025, ended Felgueiras 1932 1–0 Tondela.
More Liga Portugal 2 predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Tondela vs Felgueiras 1932
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Tondela at 54% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 907 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Tondela vs Felgueiras 1932
Tondela
- W1-0Torreense10 October 2026
- W2-0away to Portimonense12 September 2026
- W3-0FC Porto B5 September 2026
- L0-2away to União de Leiria28 August 2026
- L0-2Academica21 August 2026
Felgueiras 1932
- L0-1away to Benfica B12 October 2026
- L1-2Penafiel12 September 2026
- L0-1away to Vizela6 September 2026
- W2-1Chaves30 August 2026
- D1-1away to Farense24 August 2026
What these results say
- 4 of these 5 matches for Tondela had two goals or fewer.
- Felgueiras 1932 conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Felgueiras 1932 failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Segunda Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Tondela | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 12 |
| 14 | Felgueiras 1932 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Tondela vs Felgueiras 1932
- 8 February 2025Felgueiras 1932 1–0 TondelaSegunda Liga
- 31 August 2024Tondela 1–1 Felgueiras 1932Segunda Liga
- 22 November 2020Felgueiras 1932 0–1 TondelaTaça de Portugal
The two sides
Tondela carry a model rating of 6.58 against 6.38 for Felgueiras 1932. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.66 goals for Tondela and 0.79 for Felgueiras 1932. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Tondela rate 0.74 in attack and 1.26 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Felgueiras 1932 rate 0.52 and 1.38.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Tondela a 14.7% chance of the title and Felgueiras 1932 0.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,821 correct results out of 3,803 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Tondela the highest probability at 54%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.66 expected goals for Tondela against 0.79 for Felgueiras 1932. Tondela's attack/defence rating is 0.74/1.26 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.52/1.38 for Felgueiras 1932.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Tondela at home · Felgueiras 1932 away
League matches only, Segunda Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Segunda Liga matches this season: Tondela 7, Felgueiras 1932 7.
Tondela score most often in the 16–30 minute window (4 goals); Felgueiras 1932 have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Tondela
- at Sporting CP B8 Nov · Segunda Ligawin 34%
- vs Farense15 Nov · Segunda Ligawin 46%
- at Chaves28 Nov · Segunda Ligawin 46%
- vs Penafiel6 Dec · Segunda Ligawin 49%
Felgueiras 1932
- vs Leixoes7 Nov · Segunda Ligawin 40%
- at Amarante15 Nov · Segunda Ligawin 32%
- vs FC Porto B29 Nov · Segunda Ligawin 40%
- at Portimonense6 Dec · Segunda Ligawin 28%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.