Rustavi
vs
Samgurali
Erovnuli Liga prediction
Our model says: Rustavi 1–0 Samgurali
The model makes it 49% Rustavi, 27% draw, 24% Samgurali — fair odds of 2.04, 3.70 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Rustavi 1.66, Samgurali 1.01.
Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 50%, under 2.5: 50%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 45% of the time, over 2,115 settled matches.
Edge to Rustavi: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 24 October 2026. Rustavi's rating is built from 30 Erovnuli Liga matches and Samgurali's from 65, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 515 matches.
Key facts
- Rustavi are 4th on 52 points from 30 games; Samgurali are 6th on 38 points from 29 games — Erovnuli Liga.
- Rustavi have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat at home to Dinamo Tbilisi.
- Samgurali have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-0 win at home to Meshakhte.
- Last 4 meetings: Samgurali 2 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 30 August 2026, ended Samgurali 1–1 Rustavi.
More Erovnuli Liga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Rustavi vs Samgurali
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Rustavi at 49% here. Across 4,534 settled matches (as of 24 October 2026), 2,103 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Rustavi vs Samgurali
Rustavi
Erovnuli Liga
- L0-2Dinamo Tbilisi23 October 2026
- W1-0away to Torpedo Kutaisi18 October 2026
- W3-1Dila10 October 2026
- L0-2FC Iberia 199921 September 2026
- W1-0away to Meshakhte14 September 2026
Samgurali
Erovnuli Liga
- W2-0Meshakhte17 October 2026
- W3-0Gagra11 October 2026
- L2-3Dinamo Tbilisi19 September 2026
- L2-3away to Torpedo Kutaisi14 September 2026
- L1-3Dila9 September 2026
What these results say
- 4 of these 5 matches for Rustavi had two goals or fewer.
- Samgurali scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Samgurali had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Erovnuli Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Rustavi | 30 | 15 | 7 | 8 | 36 | 26 | +10 | 52 |
| 6 | Samgurali | 29 | 11 | 5 | 13 | 43 | 52 | -9 | 38 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Rustavi vs Samgurali
- 30 August 2026Samgurali 1–1 RustaviErovnuli Liga
- 21 May 2026Rustavi 1–0 SamguraliErovnuli Liga
- 3 April 2026Samgurali 2–1 RustaviErovnuli Liga
- 22 September 2020Samgurali 2–1 RustaviErovnuli Liga 2
The two sides
Rustavi carry a model rating of 6.33 against 6.14 for Samgurali. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.66 goals for Rustavi and 1.01 for Samgurali. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Rustavi rate 0.45 in attack and 1.36 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Samgurali rate 0.58 and 2.48.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Rustavi a 8.9% chance of the title and Samgurali 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,192 correct results out of 4,558 settled predictions (48%), with 452 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Rustavi the highest probability at 49%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.66 expected goals for Rustavi against 1.01 for Samgurali. Rustavi's attack/defence rating is 0.45/1.36 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.58/2.48 for Samgurali.
How the model reaches 49% for Rustavi to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Rustavi to win. Then home advantage adds 4 points, Rustavi's ratings take away 24 points and Samgurali's ratings add 33 points, which lands on the published 49%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage40%+4
- Rustavi's ratings16%−24
- Samgurali's ratings49%+33
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Rustavi at home · Samgurali away
League matches only, Erovnuli Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Erovnuli Liga matches this season: Rustavi 30, Samgurali 29.
Rustavi score most often in the 76–90 minute window (8 goals); Samgurali have let in 10 there.
Samgurali score most often in the 76–90 minute window (15 goals); Rustavi have let in 6 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Rustavi
- at Dinamo Batumi21 Nov · Erovnuli Ligawin 32%
- vs Meshakhte25 Nov · Erovnuli Ligawin 54%
- vs Spaeri29 Nov · Erovnuli Ligawin 51%
- at FC Iberia 19995 Dec · Erovnuli Ligawin 29%
Samgurali
- vs FC Iberia 199921 Nov · Erovnuli Ligawin 29%
- vs Torpedo Kutaisi25 Nov · Erovnuli Ligawin 35%
- at Dila30 Nov · Erovnuli Ligawin 26%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.