1/128-finals · 14 November 2026, 13:00 UTC

Versailles vs Rodez Coupe de France prediction

Saint-Germain-en-Laye

Our model says: Versailles 1–2 Rodez

The model makes it 35% Versailles, 26% draw, 39% Rodez — fair odds of 2.86, 3.85 and 2.56.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

Expected goals: Versailles 1.57, Rodez 1.67.

Both teams to score: 65%. Over 2.5 goals: 63%, under 2.5: 37%.

Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 37% of the time, over 1,094 settled matches.

Edge to Rodez: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.

Published

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 31 October 2026. Versailles's rating is built from 42 Ligue 3 matches and Rodez's from 47 Ligue 2 matches, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.

Key facts

  • Versailles are 3rd in Ligue 3 on 19 points from 10 games; Rodez are 10th in Ligue 2 on 13 points from 11 games.
  • Versailles are unbeaten in their last 5 Ligue 3 games (4 won), most recently a 2-1 win away to Thionville Lusitanos.
  • Rodez have won 2 of their last 5 Ligue 2 games, most recently a 1-0 win at home to Dunkerque.

More Coupe de France predictions

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Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Versailles vs Rodez

65%
Both teams to score
63%
Over 2.5 goals
37%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Versailles win Draw Rodez win
  1. 1–111%
  2. 1–29%
  3. 2–18%
  4. 2–27%
  5. 0–16%
  6. 1–06%
  7. 0–25%

Scores read Versailles first; the other scorelines share the remaining 48%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Rodez at 39%: of 3,980 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.7% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Versailles vs Rodez

Versailles

Ligue 3

  • W2-1away to Thionville Lusitanos17 October 2026
  • W1-0Valenciennes3 October 2026
  • W2-1away to Villefranche26 September 2026
  • D0-0Quevilly19 September 2026
  • W4-0away to Orleans12 September 2026

Rodez

Ligue 2

  • W1-0Dunkerque30 October 2026
  • W2-1away to Dijon24 October 2026
  • L0-3Montpellier19 October 2026
  • L0-2away to Saint Etienne10 October 2026
  • L3-4Nancy18 September 2026

What these results say

  • Versailles went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
  • Versailles won 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Versailles scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Rodez conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Versailles and Rodez in their domestic leagues

#TeamLeaguePWDLGFGAGDPts
3VersaillesLigue 3106131513+219
10RodezLigue 2114161722-513

Each side's position in its own domestic league — they meet here from different competitions. Full tables: Ligue 3 · Ligue 2

Leading scorers: Versailles and Rodez

Versailles

No player in Ligue 3's leading scorers — 15 league goals as a side.

Rodez

GoalsAssists

  • I. Baldé50

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Rodez the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Versailles against 1.67 for Rodez. Versailles's attack/defence rating is 0.58/1.93 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.72/1.66 for Rodez.

How the model reaches 39% for Rodez to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Rodez to win. Then home advantage takes away 7 points, Versailles's ratings add 5 points and Rodez's ratings add 5 points, which lands on the published 39%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage29%−7
  3. Versailles's ratings34%+5
  4. Rodez's ratings39%+5

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

VersaillesRodez
10Matches11
6W 1D 3LRecord4W 1D 6L
15 1.5 per gameGoals scored17 1.5 per game
13 1.3 per gameGoals conceded22 2.0 per game
4 of 10Clean sheets1 of 11
3 of 10Failed to score4 of 11
1 of 2Penalties scored–
25 2.5 per gameYellow cards16 1.5 per game

Versailles at home · Rodez away

4Played5
2W 1D 1LRecord2W 0D 3L
2–3Goals for – against8–11
3 of 4Clean sheets0 of 5

League matches only, this season — Versailles in the Ligue 3, Rodez in the Ligue 2; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All league matches this season: Versailles 10 in the Ligue 3, Rodez 11 in the Ligue 2.

Versailles scored 324123
Rodez conceded 724632

Versailles score most often in the 31–45 minute window (4 goals); Rodez have let in 4 there.

Rodez scored 222323
Versailles conceded 130423

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 5 matches, by difficulty

Versailles

  • vs Bourg-en-bresse 0121 Nov · Ligue 3win 65%
  • at Gobelins5 Dec · Ligue 3win 39%
  • vs Concarneau12 Dec · Ligue 3win 50%
  • at Rouen16 Jan · Ligue 3win 26%

Rodez

  • at Guingamp20 Nov · Ligue 2win 35%
  • vs Reims4 Dec · Ligue 2win 32%
  • at Boulogne11 Dec · Ligue 2win 35%
  • vs RED Star FC 932 Jan · Ligue 2win 39%
  • at Sochaux15 Jan · Ligue 2win 37%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.