FC Iberia 1999
vs
Gagra
Erovnuli Liga prediction
Our model says: FC Iberia 1999 1–0 Gagra
The model makes it 57% FC Iberia 1999, 26% draw, 17% Gagra — fair odds of 1.75, 3.85 and 5.88. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (15%).
Expected goals: FC Iberia 1999 1.72, Gagra 0.72.
Both teams to score: 42%. Over 2.5 goals: 44%, under 2.5: 56%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 59% of the time, over 1,616 settled matches.
One-sided: FC Iberia 1999 are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 26 October 2026. FC Iberia 1999's rating is built from 65 Erovnuli Liga matches and Gagra's from 66, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 517 matches.
Key facts
- FC Iberia 1999 are 3rd on 52 points from 29 games; Gagra are 8th on 30 points from 30 games — Erovnuli Liga.
- FC Iberia 1999 have won 4 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-0 win away to Dila.
- Gagra have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-0 draw away to Spaeri.
- Last 6 meetings: FC Iberia 1999 5 wins to 1, 0 draws; the most recent, 31 August 2026, ended Gagra 2–0 FC Iberia 1999.
More Erovnuli Liga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: FC Iberia 1999 vs Gagra
Has the model earned this number?
It puts FC Iberia 1999 at 57% here. Across 4,942 settled matches (as of 26 October 2026), 1,223 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into FC Iberia 1999 vs Gagra
FC Iberia 1999
Erovnuli Liga
- W2-0away to Dila19 October 2026
- W2-1away to Meshakhte10 October 2026
- L1-2Dinamo Tbilisi4 October 2026
- W2-0away to Rustavi21 September 2026
- W2-1Dila17 September 2026
Gagra
Erovnuli Liga
- D0-0away to Spaeri23 October 2026
- L1-3Dinamo Batumi17 October 2026
- L0-3away to Samgurali11 October 2026
- D1-1Meshakhte19 September 2026
- L0-4away to Dinamo Tbilisi14 September 2026
What these results say
- FC Iberia 1999 scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- FC Iberia 1999 won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Gagra did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Gagra conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Erovnuli Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | FC Iberia 1999 | 29 | 16 | 4 | 9 | 42 | 31 | +11 | 52 |
| 8 | Gagra | 30 | 6 | 12 | 12 | 26 | 43 | -17 | 30 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: FC Iberia 1999 vs Gagra
- 31 August 2026Gagra 2–0 FC Iberia 1999Erovnuli Liga
- 20 May 2026FC Iberia 1999 1–0 GagraErovnuli Liga
- 3 April 2026Gagra 1–2 FC Iberia 1999Erovnuli Liga
- 6 December 2025FC Iberia 1999 2–1 GagraErovnuli Liga
- 3 October 2025Gagra 1–3 FC Iberia 1999Erovnuli Liga
- 29 May 2025FC Iberia 1999 3–1 GagraErovnuli Liga
The two sides
FC Iberia 1999 carry a model rating of 6.34 against 5.99 for Gagra. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.72 goals for FC Iberia 1999 and 0.72 for Gagra. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
FC Iberia 1999 rate 0.56 in attack and 1.55 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Gagra rate 0.36 and 2.06.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives FC Iberia 1999 a 20.8% chance of the title and Gagra 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,376 correct results out of 4,950 settled predictions (48%), with 492 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FC Iberia 1999 the highest probability at 57%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.72 expected goals for FC Iberia 1999 against 0.72 for Gagra. FC Iberia 1999's attack/defence rating is 0.56/1.55 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.36/2.06 for Gagra.
How the model reaches 57% for FC Iberia 1999 to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for FC Iberia 1999 to win. Then home advantage adds 4 points, FC Iberia 1999's ratings take away 23 points and Gagra's ratings add 40 points, which lands on the published 57%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage40%+4
- FC Iberia 1999's ratings17%−23
- Gagra's ratings57%+40
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
FC Iberia 1999 at home · Gagra away
League matches only, Erovnuli Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Erovnuli Liga matches this season: FC Iberia 1999 29, Gagra 30.
FC Iberia 1999 score most often in the 76–90 minute window (9 goals); Gagra have let in 11 there.
Gagra score most often in the 76–90 minute window (7 goals); FC Iberia 1999 have let in 9 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
FC Iberia 1999
- at Spaeri15 Nov · Erovnuli Ligawin 48%
- at Samgurali21 Nov · Erovnuli Ligawin 46%
Gagra
- vs Dila20 Nov · Erovnuli Ligawin 27%
- vs Dinamo Tbilisi24 Nov · Erovnuli Ligawin 21%
- at Torpedo Kutaisi29 Nov · Erovnuli Ligawin 20%
- at Meshakhte5 Dec · Erovnuli Ligawin 32%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.