Meshakhte
vs
Torpedo Kutaisi
Erovnuli Liga prediction
Our model says: Meshakhte 0–1 Torpedo Kutaisi
The model makes it 23% Meshakhte, 27% draw, 50% Torpedo Kutaisi — fair odds of 4.35, 3.70 and 2.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Meshakhte 1.00, Torpedo Kutaisi 1.69.
Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 50%, under 2.5: 50%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 59% of the time, over 1,486 settled matches.
One-sided: Torpedo Kutaisi are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 24 October 2026. Meshakhte's rating is built from 31 Erovnuli Liga matches and Torpedo Kutaisi's from 65, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 515 matches.
Key facts
- Meshakhte are bottom on 17 points from 29 games; Torpedo Kutaisi are 7th on 37 points from 29 games — Erovnuli Liga.
- Meshakhte have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat away to Samgurali.
- Torpedo Kutaisi are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to Rustavi.
- Last 3 meetings: Torpedo Kutaisi 2 wins to 1, 0 draws; the most recent, 31 August 2026, ended Torpedo Kutaisi 0–2 Meshakhte.
More Erovnuli Liga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Meshakhte vs Torpedo Kutaisi
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Torpedo Kutaisi at 50% here. Across 4,534 settled matches (as of 24 October 2026), 1,113 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Meshakhte vs Torpedo Kutaisi
Meshakhte
Erovnuli Liga
- L0-2away to Samgurali17 October 2026
- L1-2FC Iberia 199910 October 2026
- D1-1away to Gagra19 September 2026
- L0-1Rustavi14 September 2026
- D0-0away to Dinamo Tbilisi10 September 2026
Torpedo Kutaisi
Erovnuli Liga
- L0-1Rustavi18 October 2026
- D3-3away to Spaeri10 October 2026
- L2-3away to Dinamo Batumi20 September 2026
- W3-2Samgurali14 September 2026
- D1-1away to Gagra10 September 2026
What these results say
- Meshakhte did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Meshakhte conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Meshakhte had two goals or fewer.
- Torpedo Kutaisi conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Torpedo Kutaisi failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Torpedo Kutaisi scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Erovnuli Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Meshakhte | 29 | 2 | 11 | 16 | 21 | 48 | -27 | 17 |
| 7 | Torpedo Kutaisi | 29 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 46 | 38 | +8 | 37 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Meshakhte vs Torpedo Kutaisi
- 31 August 2026Torpedo Kutaisi 0–2 MeshakhteErovnuli Liga
- 20 May 2026Meshakhte 1–4 Torpedo KutaisiErovnuli Liga
- 3 April 2026Torpedo Kutaisi 3–0 MeshakhteErovnuli Liga
Leading scorers: Meshakhte and Torpedo Kutaisi
Meshakhte
No player in Erovnuli Liga's leading scorers — 21 league goals as a side.
Torpedo Kutaisi
GoalsAssists
- K. Andrić82
- G. Arabidze58
- Felipe Pires30
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Meshakhte carry a model rating of 5.92 against 6.25 for Torpedo Kutaisi. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.00 goals for Meshakhte and 1.69 for Torpedo Kutaisi. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Meshakhte rate 0.33 in attack and 2.16 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Torpedo Kutaisi rate 0.61 and 2.03.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,192 correct results out of 4,558 settled predictions (48%), with 452 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Torpedo Kutaisi the highest probability at 50%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.00 expected goals for Meshakhte against 1.69 for Torpedo Kutaisi. Meshakhte's attack/defence rating is 0.33/2.16 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.61/2.03 for Torpedo Kutaisi.
How the model reaches 50% for Torpedo Kutaisi to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Torpedo Kutaisi to win. Then home advantage takes away 4 points, Meshakhte's ratings add 47 points and Torpedo Kutaisi's ratings take away 29 points, which lands on the published 50%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage32%−4
- Meshakhte's ratings79%+47
- Torpedo Kutaisi's ratings50%−29
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Meshakhte at home · Torpedo Kutaisi away
League matches only, Erovnuli Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Erovnuli Liga matches this season: Meshakhte 29, Torpedo Kutaisi 29.
Meshakhte score most often in the 76–90 minute window (6 goals); Torpedo Kutaisi have let in 12 there.
Torpedo Kutaisi score most often in the 76–90 minute window (13 goals); Meshakhte have let in 10 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Meshakhte
- at Spaeri21 Nov · Erovnuli Ligawin 26%
- at Rustavi25 Nov · Erovnuli Ligawin 17%
- vs Dinamo Tbilisi29 Nov · Erovnuli Ligawin 18%
Torpedo Kutaisi
- at Dinamo Tbilisi20 Nov · Erovnuli Ligawin 27%
- at Samgurali25 Nov · Erovnuli Ligawin 41%
- vs Gagra29 Nov · Erovnuli Ligawin 55%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.