Torpedo Kutaisi
vs
Dila
Erovnuli Liga prediction
Our model says: Torpedo Kutaisi 2–1 Dila
The model makes it 38% Torpedo Kutaisi, 26% draw, 36% Dila — fair odds of 2.63, 3.85 and 2.78. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Torpedo Kutaisi 1.60, Dila 1.52.
Both teams to score: 63%. Over 2.5 goals: 60%, under 2.5: 40%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 37% of the time, over 904 settled matches.
A tight game: Torpedo Kutaisi and Dila are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 19 October 2026. Torpedo Kutaisi's rating is built from 65 Erovnuli Liga matches and Dila's from 64, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 512 matches.
Key facts
- Torpedo Kutaisi are 7th on 37 points from 29 games; Dila are 5th on 40 points from 28 games — Erovnuli Liga.
- Torpedo Kutaisi are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to Rustavi.
- Dila have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-3 defeat away to Rustavi.
- Last 6 meetings: Dila 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 22 August 2026, ended Dila 2–2 Torpedo Kutaisi.
More Erovnuli Liga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Torpedo Kutaisi vs Dila
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Torpedo Kutaisi at 38% here. Across 4,271 settled matches (as of 19 October 2026), 3,310 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Torpedo Kutaisi vs Dila
Torpedo Kutaisi
- L0-1Rustavi18 October 2026
- D3-3away to Spaeri10 October 2026
- L2-3away to Dinamo Batumi20 September 2026
- W3-2Samgurali14 September 2026
- D1-1away to Gagra10 September 2026
Dila
- L1-3away to Rustavi10 October 2026
- W4-1away to Spaeri21 September 2026
- L1-2away to FC Iberia 199917 September 2026
- D2-2Dinamo Batumi13 September 2026
- W3-1away to Samgurali9 September 2026
What these results say
- Torpedo Kutaisi conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Torpedo Kutaisi failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Torpedo Kutaisi scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Dila scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Dila conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Dila had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Erovnuli Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Torpedo Kutaisi | 29 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 46 | 38 | +8 | 37 |
| 5 | Dila | 28 | 12 | 4 | 12 | 39 | 33 | +6 | 40 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Torpedo Kutaisi vs Dila
- 22 August 2026Dila 2–2 Torpedo KutaisiErovnuli Liga
- 27 June 2026Dila 0–1 Torpedo KutaisiSuper Cup
- 15 May 2026Torpedo Kutaisi 2–1 DilaErovnuli Liga
- 16 March 2026Dila 1–0 Torpedo KutaisiErovnuli Liga
- 3 November 2025Dila 1–0 Torpedo KutaisiErovnuli Liga
- 23 August 2025Torpedo Kutaisi 0–1 DilaErovnuli Liga
Leading scorers: Torpedo Kutaisi and Dila
Torpedo Kutaisi
GoalsAssists
- K. Andrić82
- G. Arabidze58
- Felipe Pires30
Dila
No player in Erovnuli Liga's leading scorers — 39 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Torpedo Kutaisi carry a model rating of 6.25 against 6.3 for Dila. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.60 goals for Torpedo Kutaisi and 1.52 for Dila. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Torpedo Kutaisi rate 0.60 in attack and 2.00 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Dila rate 0.59 and 1.78.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Dila, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Torpedo Kutaisi a 0% chance of the title and Dila 0.3%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,058 correct results out of 4,279 settled predictions (48%), with 431 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Torpedo Kutaisi the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.60 expected goals for Torpedo Kutaisi against 1.52 for Dila. Torpedo Kutaisi's attack/defence rating is 0.6/2 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.59/1.78 for Dila.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Torpedo Kutaisi at home · Dila away
League matches only, Erovnuli Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Erovnuli Liga matches this season: Torpedo Kutaisi 29, Dila 28.
Torpedo Kutaisi score most often in the 76–90 minute window (13 goals); Dila have let in 10 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Torpedo Kutaisi
- at Meshakhte7 Nov · Erovnuli Ligawin 50%
- at Dinamo Tbilisi20 Nov · Erovnuli Ligawin 27%
- at Samgurali25 Nov · Erovnuli Ligawin 41%
- vs Gagra29 Nov · Erovnuli Ligawin 55%
Dila
- vs Dinamo Tbilisi8 Nov · Erovnuli Ligawin 37%
- at Gagra20 Nov · Erovnuli Ligawin 49%
- at Dinamo Batumi25 Nov · Erovnuli Ligawin 33%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.