Lech Poznan
vs
Zaglebie Lubin
Ekstraklasa prediction
Our model says: Lech Poznan 2–0 Zaglebie Lubin
The model makes it 63% Lech Poznan, 22% draw, 15% Zaglebie Lubin — fair odds of 1.59, 4.55 and 6.67. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (12%).
Expected goals: Lech Poznan 2.18, Zaglebie Lubin 0.82.
Both teams to score: 50%. Over 2.5 goals: 58%, under 2.5: 42%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 59% of the time, over 1,486 settled matches.
One-sided: Lech Poznan are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 24 October 2026. Lech Poznan's rating is built from 44 Ekstraklasa matches and Zaglebie Lubin's from 46, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 711 matches.
Key facts
- Lech Poznan are 2nd on 25 points from 10 games; Zaglebie Lubin are 5th on 19 points from 12 games — Ekstraklasa.
- Lech Poznan are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 6-1 win at home to Korona Kielce.
- Zaglebie Lubin have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-2 draw away to Motor Lublin.
- Last 6 meetings: Lech Poznan 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 15 March 2026, ended Zaglebie Lubin 0–1 Lech Poznan.
More Ekstraklasa predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Lech Poznan vs Zaglebie Lubin
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Lech Poznan at 63% here. Across 4,534 settled matches (as of 24 October 2026), 1,113 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Lech Poznan vs Zaglebie Lubin
Lech Poznan
Ekstraklasa
- W6-1Korona Kielce18 October 2026
- W4-1away to Slask Wroclaw10 October 2026
- W5-1Radomiak Radom20 September 2026
- L1-2away to Gornik Zabrze12 September 2026
- W1-0Raków Częstochowa6 September 2026
Zaglebie Lubin
Ekstraklasa
- D2-2away to Motor Lublin23 October 2026
- W1-0Jagiellonia18 October 2026
- L1-3away to Cracovia Krakow10 October 2026
- L0-2Wisla Plock20 September 2026
- W3-2away to Raków Częstochowa15 September 2026
What these results say
- Lech Poznan scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Lech Poznan won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Lech Poznan conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Zaglebie Lubin scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Zaglebie Lubin conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ekstraklasa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Lech Poznan | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 27 | 9 | +18 | 25 |
| 5 | Zaglebie Lubin | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 15 | 15 | 0 | 19 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Lech Poznan vs Zaglebie Lubin
- 15 March 2026Zaglebie Lubin 0–1 Lech PoznanEkstraklasa
- 12 September 2025Lech Poznan 1–2 Zaglebie LubinEkstraklasa
- 23 February 2025Lech Poznan 3–1 Zaglebie LubinEkstraklasa
- 17 August 2024Zaglebie Lubin 0–1 Lech PoznanEkstraklasa
- 10 February 2024Lech Poznan 2–0 Zaglebie LubinEkstraklasa
- 6 August 2023Zaglebie Lubin 1–1 Lech PoznanEkstraklasa
Leading scorers: Lech Poznan and Zaglebie Lubin
Lech Poznan
GoalsAssists
- Pablo Rodríguez66
- P. Wålemark53
- A. Sayyadmanesh50
Zaglebie Lubin
No player in Ekstraklasa's leading scorers — 15 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Lech Poznan carry a model rating of 6.97 against 6.63 for Zaglebie Lubin. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 2.18 goals for Lech Poznan and 0.82 for Zaglebie Lubin. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Lech Poznan rate 1.24 in attack and 0.98 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Zaglebie Lubin rate 0.66 and 1.06.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Lech Poznan a 64.1% chance of the title and Zaglebie Lubin 0.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,192 correct results out of 4,558 settled predictions (48%), with 452 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Lech Poznan the highest probability at 63%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.18 expected goals for Lech Poznan against 0.82 for Zaglebie Lubin. Lech Poznan's attack/defence rating is 1.24/0.98 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.66/1.06 for Zaglebie Lubin.
How the model reaches 63% for Lech Poznan to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Lech Poznan to win. Then home advantage adds 7 points, Lech Poznan's ratings add 8 points and Zaglebie Lubin's ratings add 11 points, which lands on the published 63%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage44%+7
- Lech Poznan's ratings52%+8
- Zaglebie Lubin's ratings63%+11
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Lech Poznan at home · Zaglebie Lubin away
League matches only, Ekstraklasa, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
Lech PoznanZaglebie Lubin
Lech Poznan are 2nd after 10 Ekstraklasa matches (between 1st and 6th so far); Zaglebie Lubin are 5th after 12 (between 1st and 8th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ekstraklasa matches this season: Lech Poznan 10, Zaglebie Lubin 12.
Lech Poznan score most often in the 31–45 minute window (6 goals); Zaglebie Lubin have let in 3 there.
Zaglebie Lubin score most often in the 76–90 minute window (7 goals); Lech Poznan have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Lech Poznan
- at GKS Katowice21 Nov · Ekstraklasawin 43%
- at Union St. Gilloise26 Nov · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 20%
Zaglebie Lubin
- vs Gornik Zabrze21 Nov · Ekstraklasawin 31%
- at Widzew Łódź28 Nov · Ekstraklasawin 29%
- vs Wisla Krakow5 Dec · Ekstraklasawin 38%
- at Piast Gliwice12 Dec · Ekstraklasawin 27%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.