Skalica
vs
Žilina
Super Liga prediction
Our model says: Skalica 1–2 Žilina
The model makes it 29% Skalica, 25% draw, 46% Žilina — fair odds of 3.45, 4.00 and 2.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Skalica 1.34, Žilina 1.81.
Both teams to score: 62%. Over 2.5 goals: 61%, under 2.5: 39%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,131 settled matches.
One-sided: Žilina are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 24 October 2026. Skalica's rating is built from 43 Slovak Super Liga matches and Žilina's from 43, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Skalica are 10th on 9 points from 11 games; Žilina are 3rd on 21 points from 11 games — Super Liga.
- Skalica have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat at home to AS Trencin.
- Žilina have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-3 defeat at home to Dunajska Streda.
- Last 6 meetings: Žilina 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 9 August 2026, ended Žilina 1–3 Skalica.
More Slovak Super Liga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Skalica vs Žilina
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Žilina at 46% here. Across 4,534 settled matches (as of 24 October 2026), 2,103 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Skalica vs Žilina
Skalica
Super Liga
- L0-2AS Trencin17 October 2026
- D1-1Slovan Bratislava10 October 2026
- L0-1Podbrezová20 September 2026
- L2-3away to Dukla Banská Bystrica12 September 2026
- D0-0away to Komárno5 September 2026
Žilina
Super Liga
- L2-3Dunajska Streda18 October 2026
- D2-2away to Ružomberok11 October 2026
- W2-1AS Trencin19 September 2026
- D3-3away to Slovan Bratislava13 September 2026
- W3-1Podbrezová5 September 2026
What these results say
- Skalica did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Skalica conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Skalica had two goals or fewer.
- Žilina scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Žilina conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Žilina had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Super Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Skalica | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 12 | 22 | -10 | 9 |
| 3 | Žilina | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 27 | 22 | +5 | 21 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Skalica vs Žilina
- 9 August 2026Žilina 1–3 SkalicaSuper Liga
- 25 November 2025Žilina 3–1 SkalicaCup
- 25 October 2025Žilina 3–2 SkalicaSuper Liga
- 27 July 2025Skalica 0–0 ŽilinaSuper Liga
- 15 December 2024Skalica 0–0 ŽilinaSuper Liga
- 14 September 2024Žilina 3–2 SkalicaSuper Liga
Leading scorers: Skalica and Žilina
Skalica
GoalsAssists
- E. Daniel10
Žilina
GoalsAssists
- A. Narimanidze10
- M. Faško10
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Skalica carry a model rating of 6.15 against 6.46 for Žilina. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.34 goals for Skalica and 1.81 for Žilina. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Skalica rate 0.46 in attack and 1.88 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Žilina rate 0.80 and 1.79.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Skalica a 0% chance of the title and Žilina 0.9%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,209 correct results out of 4,585 settled predictions (48%), with 455 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Žilina the highest probability at 46%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Skalica against 1.81 for Žilina. Skalica's attack/defence rating is 0.46/1.88 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.8/1.79 for Žilina.
How the model reaches 46% for Žilina to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Žilina to win. Then home advantage takes away 7 points, Skalica's ratings add 37 points and Žilina's ratings take away 20 points, which lands on the published 46%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage29%−7
- Skalica's ratings66%+37
- Žilina's ratings46%−20
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Skalica at home · Žilina away
League matches only, Super Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Super Liga matches this season: Skalica 11, Žilina 11.
Skalica score most often in the 46–60 minute window (4 goals); Žilina have let in 4 there.
Žilina score most often in the 76–90 minute window (7 goals); Skalica have let in 4 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Skalica
- at FK Košice21 Nov · Super Ligawin 20%
- vs Zemplín Michalovce28 Nov · Super Ligawin 37%
- at Dunajska Streda5 Dec · Super Ligawin 8%
Žilina
- vs Dukla Banská Bystrica21 Nov · Super Ligawin 63%
- at Komárno28 Nov · Super Ligawin 43%
- vs Spartak Trnava5 Dec · Super Ligawin 41%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.