Zemplín Michalovce
vs
Podbrezová
Super Liga prediction
Our model says: Zemplín Michalovce 1–0 Podbrezová
The model makes it 40% Zemplín Michalovce, 28% draw, 32% Podbrezová — fair odds of 2.50, 3.57 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Zemplín Michalovce 1.40, Podbrezová 1.18.
Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 48%, under 2.5: 52%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Zemplín Michalovce are 7th on 13 points from 10 games; Podbrezová are 5th on 14 points from 10 games — Super Liga.
- Zemplín Michalovce have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-3 defeat at home to Dunajska Streda.
- Podbrezová have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-3 defeat at home to Spartak Trnava.
- Last 6 meetings: Podbrezová 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 25 July 2026, ended Podbrezová 2–0 Zemplín Michalovce.
More Slovak Super Liga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Zemplín Michalovce vs Podbrezová
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Zemplín Michalovce at 40% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Zemplín Michalovce vs Podbrezová
Zemplín Michalovce
- L0-3Dunajska Streda10 October 2026
- W1-0Dukla Banská Bystrica19 September 2026
- L0-3away to Ružomberok12 September 2026
- W3-1AS Trencin5 September 2026
- W2-1away to Slovan Bratislava30 August 2026
Podbrezová
- L1-3Spartak Trnava11 October 2026
- W1-0away to Skalica20 September 2026
- D1-1Komárno13 September 2026
- L1-3away to Žilina5 September 2026
- D2-2FK Košice29 August 2026
What these results say
- Zemplín Michalovce conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Zemplín Michalovce had three goals or more.
- Podbrezová scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Podbrezová failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Podbrezová conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Super Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Zemplín Michalovce | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 9 | 14 | -5 | 13 |
| 5 | Podbrezová | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 14 | 19 | -5 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Zemplín Michalovce
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 10% today
Podbrezová
Chance to finish in the top four · 13% today
From our Super Liga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Zemplín Michalovce vs Podbrezová
- 25 July 2026Podbrezová 2–0 Zemplín MichalovceSuper Liga
- 25 April 2026Zemplín Michalovce 1–2 PodbrezováSuper Liga
- 14 March 2026Podbrezová 0–1 Zemplín MichalovceSuper Liga
- 6 December 2025Zemplín Michalovce 0–4 PodbrezováSuper Liga
- 30 August 2025Podbrezová 2–2 Zemplín MichalovceSuper Liga
- 8 February 2025Zemplín Michalovce 2–2 PodbrezováSuper Liga
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Zemplín Michalovce carry a model rating of 6.26 against 6.32 for Podbrezová. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.40 goals for Zemplín Michalovce and 1.18 for Podbrezová. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Zemplín Michalovce rate 0.48 in attack and 1.58 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Podbrezová rate 0.62 and 1.79.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Podbrezová, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Zemplín Michalovce the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Zemplín Michalovce against 1.18 for Podbrezová. Zemplín Michalovce's attack/defence rating is 0.48/1.58 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.62/1.79 for Podbrezová.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Zemplín Michalovce at home · Podbrezová away
League matches only, Super Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Super Liga matches this season: Zemplín Michalovce 10, Podbrezová 10.
Podbrezová score most often in the 61–75 minute window (4 goals); Zemplín Michalovce have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Zemplín Michalovce
- at Žilina31 Oct · Super Ligawin 20%
- at Komárno8 Nov · Super Ligawin 30%
- vs Spartak Trnava21 Nov · Super Ligawin 27%
- at Skalica28 Nov · Super Ligawin 31%
Podbrezová
- vs Slovan Bratislava31 Oct · Super Ligawin 28%
- vs Ružomberok8 Nov · Super Ligawin 55%
- at AS Trencin21 Nov · Super Ligawin 39%
- vs Dunajska Streda28 Nov · Super Ligawin 23%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.