Skalica
vs
Spartak Trnava
Super Liga prediction
Our model says: Skalica 0–1 Spartak Trnava
The model makes it 24% Skalica, 27% draw, 49% Spartak Trnava — fair odds of 4.17, 3.70 and 2.04. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Skalica 1.03, Spartak Trnava 1.69.
Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 51%, under 2.5: 49%.
Model confidence: Medium.
One-sided: Spartak Trnava are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Skalica are 9th on 9 points from 10 games; Spartak Trnava are 2nd on 21 points from 10 games — Super Liga.
- Skalica have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Slovan Bratislava.
- Spartak Trnava are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 3-1 win away to Podbrezová.
- Last 5 meetings: Spartak Trnava 4 wins to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 25 July 2026, ended Spartak Trnava 1–1 Skalica.
More Slovak Super Liga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Skalica vs Spartak Trnava
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Spartak Trnava at 49% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Skalica vs Spartak Trnava
Skalica
- D1-1Slovan Bratislava10 October 2026
- L0-1Podbrezová20 September 2026
- L2-3away to Dukla Banská Bystrica12 September 2026
- D0-0away to Komárno5 September 2026
- L1-6Dunajska Streda30 August 2026
Spartak Trnava
- W3-1away to Podbrezová11 October 2026
- D2-2away to Dunajska Streda20 September 2026
- W5-2FK Košice12 September 2026
- D1-1away to Ružomberok6 September 2026
- L1-3Žilina30 August 2026
What these results say
- Skalica did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Skalica conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Spartak Trnava scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Spartak Trnava conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in every one of these 5 matches for Spartak Trnava.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Super Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Skalica | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 12 | 20 | -8 | 9 |
| 2 | Spartak Trnava | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 24 | 11 | +13 | 21 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Skalica
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 34% today
Spartak Trnava
Chance to finish top of the regular season · 12% today
From our Super Liga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Skalica vs Spartak Trnava
- 25 July 2026Spartak Trnava 1–1 SkalicaSuper Liga
- 13 December 2025Spartak Trnava 2–0 SkalicaSuper Liga
- 13 September 2025Skalica 0–4 Spartak TrnavaSuper Liga
- 30 November 2024Spartak Trnava 2–0 SkalicaSuper Liga
- 24 August 2024Skalica 1–2 Spartak TrnavaSuper Liga
The two sides
Skalica carry a model rating of 6.2 against 6.59 for Spartak Trnava. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.03 goals for Skalica and 1.69 for Spartak Trnava. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Skalica rate 0.49 in attack and 1.82 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Spartak Trnava rate 0.77 and 1.29.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Skalica a 0% chance of the title and Spartak Trnava 12.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Spartak Trnava the highest probability at 49%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Skalica against 1.69 for Spartak Trnava. Skalica's attack/defence rating is 0.49/1.82 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.77/1.29 for Spartak Trnava.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Skalica at home · Spartak Trnava away
League matches only, Super Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Super Liga matches this season: Skalica 10, Spartak Trnava 10.
Skalica score most often in the 46–60 minute window (4 goals); Spartak Trnava have let in 2 there.
Spartak Trnava score most often in the 31–45 minute window (7 goals); Skalica have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Skalica
- at Ružomberok1 Nov · Super Ligawin 32%
- vs Žilina7 Nov · Super Ligawin 31%
- at FK Košice21 Nov · Super Ligawin 22%
- vs Zemplín Michalovce28 Nov · Super Ligawin 39%
Spartak Trnava
- vs Komárno31 Oct · Super Ligawin 62%
- at Dukla Banská Bystrica7 Nov · Super Ligawin 53%
- at Zemplín Michalovce21 Nov · Super Ligawin 45%
- vs AS Trencin28 Nov · Super Ligawin 71%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.