Dukla Banská Bystrica
vs
Spartak Trnava
Super Liga prediction
Our model says: Dukla Banská Bystrica 0–1 Spartak Trnava
The model makes it 25% Dukla Banská Bystrica, 27% draw, 48% Spartak Trnava — fair odds of 4.00, 3.70 and 2.08. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Dukla Banská Bystrica 1.04, Spartak Trnava 1.67.
Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 51%, under 2.5: 49%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,131 settled matches.
One-sided: Spartak Trnava are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 24 October 2026. Dukla Banská Bystrica's rating is built from 11 Slovak Super Liga matches and Spartak Trnava's from 43, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Dukla Banská Bystrica are 8th on 13 points from 11 games; Spartak Trnava are 2nd on 21 points from 11 games — Super Liga.
- Dukla Banská Bystrica have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win at home to Podbrezová.
- Spartak Trnava have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-3 defeat at home to Slovan Bratislava.
- Last 6 meetings: Spartak Trnava 5 wins to 1, 0 draws; the most recent, 8 August 2026, ended Spartak Trnava 3–0 Dukla Banská Bystrica.
More Slovak Super Liga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Dukla Banská Bystrica vs Spartak Trnava
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Spartak Trnava at 48% here. Across 4,534 settled matches (as of 24 October 2026), 2,103 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Dukla Banská Bystrica vs Spartak Trnava
Dukla Banská Bystrica
Super Liga
- W1-0Podbrezová18 October 2026
- W1-0away to AS Trencin10 October 2026
- L0-1away to Zemplín Michalovce19 September 2026
- W3-2Skalica12 September 2026
- L0-3away to FK Košice6 September 2026
Spartak Trnava
Super Liga
- L0-3Slovan Bratislava17 October 2026
- W3-1away to Podbrezová11 October 2026
- D2-2away to Dunajska Streda20 September 2026
- W5-2FK Košice12 September 2026
- D1-1away to Ružomberok6 September 2026
What these results say
- Spartak Trnava conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Spartak Trnava scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Spartak Trnava had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Super Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Dukla Banská Bystrica | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 11 | 21 | -10 | 13 |
| 2 | Spartak Trnava | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 24 | 14 | +10 | 21 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Dukla Banská Bystrica vs Spartak Trnava
- 8 August 2026Spartak Trnava 3–0 Dukla Banská BystricaSuper Liga
- 8 February 2025Dukla Banská Bystrica 1–4 Spartak TrnavaSuper Liga
- 22 September 2024Spartak Trnava 1–0 Dukla Banská BystricaSuper Liga
- 24 February 2024Spartak Trnava 2–0 Dukla Banská BystricaSuper Liga
- 8 October 2023Dukla Banská Bystrica 1–2 Spartak TrnavaSuper Liga
- 6 May 2023Spartak Trnava 0–1 Dukla Banská BystricaSuper Liga
Leading scorers: Dukla Banská Bystrica and Spartak Trnava
Dukla Banská Bystrica
GoalsAssists
- M. Gjorgievski10
Spartak Trnava
GoalsAssists
- T. Kudlička20
- P. Azango10
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Dukla Banská Bystrica carry a model rating of 6.16 against 6.54 for Spartak Trnava. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.04 goals for Dukla Banská Bystrica and 1.67 for Spartak Trnava. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Dukla Banská Bystrica rate 0.46 in attack and 1.85 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Spartak Trnava rate 0.75 and 1.39.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Dukla Banská Bystrica a 0% chance of the title and Spartak Trnava 2.9%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,209 correct results out of 4,585 settled predictions (48%), with 455 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Spartak Trnava the highest probability at 48%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Dukla Banská Bystrica against 1.67 for Spartak Trnava. Dukla Banská Bystrica's attack/defence rating is 0.46/1.85 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.75/1.39 for Spartak Trnava.
How the model reaches 48% for Spartak Trnava to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Spartak Trnava to win. Then home advantage takes away 7 points, Dukla Banská Bystrica's ratings add 36 points and Spartak Trnava's ratings take away 17 points, which lands on the published 48%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage29%−7
- Dukla Banská Bystrica's ratings65%+36
- Spartak Trnava's ratings48%−17
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Dukla Banská Bystrica at home · Spartak Trnava away
League matches only, Super Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Super Liga matches this season: Dukla Banská Bystrica 11, Spartak Trnava 11.
Dukla Banská Bystrica score most often in the 76–90 minute window (6 goals); Spartak Trnava have let in 5 there.
Spartak Trnava score most often in the 31–45 minute window (7 goals); Dukla Banská Bystrica have let in 6 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Dukla Banská Bystrica
- at Žilina21 Nov · Super Ligawin 16%
- vs Ružomberok28 Nov · Super Ligawin 43%
- at Komárno5 Dec · Super Ligawin 27%
Spartak Trnava
- at Zemplín Michalovce21 Nov · Super Ligawin 42%
- vs AS Trencin28 Nov · Super Ligawin 67%
- at Žilina5 Dec · Super Ligawin 34%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.