Fortuna Sittard
vs
Telstar
Eredivisie prediction
Our model says: Fortuna Sittard 2–1 Telstar
The model makes it 46% Fortuna Sittard, 25% draw, 29% Telstar — fair odds of 2.17, 4.00 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Fortuna Sittard 1.82, Telstar 1.35.
Both teams to score: 63%. Over 2.5 goals: 61%, under 2.5: 39%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 45% of the time, over 2,115 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 24 October 2026. Fortuna Sittard's rating is built from 43 Eredivisie matches and Telstar's from 44, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 712 matches.
Key facts
- Fortuna Sittard are 6th on 15 points from 9 games; Telstar are 17th on 6 points from 10 games — Eredivisie.
- Fortuna Sittard are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 2-2 draw away to NEC Nijmegen.
- Telstar have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 2-3 defeat away to GO Ahead Eagles.
- Last 6 meetings: Fortuna Sittard 2 wins to 1, 3 draws; the most recent, 8 March 2026, ended Fortuna Sittard 1–4 Telstar.
More Eredivisie predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Fortuna Sittard vs Telstar
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Fortuna Sittard at 46% here. Across 4,534 settled matches (as of 24 October 2026), 2,103 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Fortuna Sittard vs Telstar
Fortuna Sittard
Eredivisie
- D2-2away to NEC Nijmegen18 October 2026
- D1-1Twente10 October 2026
- W1-0away to Willem II19 September 2026
- L1-5Ajax12 September 2026
- W3-2away to ADO Den Haag6 September 2026
Telstar
Eredivisie
- L2-3away to GO Ahead Eagles23 October 2026
- L3-4Feyenoord17 October 2026
- D2-2ADO Den Haag11 October 2026
- L0-1away to AZ Alkmaar20 September 2026
- D0-0away to Heerenveen13 September 2026
What these results say
- Fortuna Sittard scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Fortuna Sittard conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for Fortuna Sittard.
- Telstar did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Telstar conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Fortuna Sittard | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 16 | 17 | -1 | 15 |
| 17 | Telstar | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 12 | 21 | -9 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Fortuna Sittard vs Telstar
- 8 March 2026Fortuna Sittard 1–4 TelstarEredivisie
- 14 September 2025Telstar 1–3 Fortuna SittardEredivisie
- 16 February 2018Fortuna Sittard 1–1 TelstarEerste Divisie
- 29 September 2017Telstar 0–6 Fortuna SittardEerste Divisie
- 20 January 2017Fortuna Sittard 1–1 TelstarEerste Divisie
- 12 August 2016Telstar 1–1 Fortuna SittardEerste Divisie
Leading scorers: Fortuna Sittard and Telstar
Fortuna Sittard
GoalsAssists
- A. Descotte50
Telstar
GoalsAssists
- T. Owusu40
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Fortuna Sittard carry a model rating of 6.63 against 6.6 for Telstar. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.82 goals for Fortuna Sittard and 1.35 for Telstar. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Fortuna Sittard rate 0.80 in attack and 1.23 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Telstar rate 0.74 and 1.23.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Fortuna Sittard a 0.1% chance of the title and Telstar 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,192 correct results out of 4,558 settled predictions (48%), with 452 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Fortuna Sittard the highest probability at 46%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.82 expected goals for Fortuna Sittard against 1.35 for Telstar. Fortuna Sittard's attack/defence rating is 0.8/1.23 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.74/1.23 for Telstar.
How the model reaches 46% for Fortuna Sittard to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Fortuna Sittard to win. Then home advantage adds 7 points, Fortuna Sittard's ratings take away 12 points and Telstar's ratings add 14 points, which lands on the published 46%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage44%+7
- Fortuna Sittard's ratings32%−12
- Telstar's ratings46%+14
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Fortuna Sittard at home · Telstar away
League matches only, Eredivisie, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Eredivisie matches this season: Fortuna Sittard 9, Telstar 10.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Fortuna Sittard
- at GO Ahead Eagles22 Nov · Eredivisiewin 30%
- vs Heerenveen29 Nov · Eredivisiewin 35%
- vs PEC Zwolle5 Dec · Eredivisiewin 54%
Telstar
- vs PEC Zwolle21 Nov · Eredivisiewin 51%
- at Excelsior28 Nov · Eredivisiewin 30%
- vs Groningen4 Dec · Eredivisiewin 35%
- at PSV Eindhoven13 Dec · Eredivisiewin 10%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.