Pardubice
vs
Zbrojovka Brno
Czech Liga prediction
Our model says: Pardubice 2–1 Zbrojovka Brno
The model makes it 51% Pardubice, 25% draw, 24% Zbrojovka Brno — fair odds of 1.96, 4.00 and 4.17.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Pardubice 1.85, Zbrojovka Brno 1.11.
Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 57%, under 2.5: 43%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,123 settled matches.
Edge to Pardubice: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. Pardubice's rating is built from 46 Czech Liga matches and Zbrojovka Brno's from 14, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 670 matches.
Key facts
- Pardubice are 12th on 17 points from 14 games; Zbrojovka Brno are 10th on 20 points from 14 games — Czech Liga.
- Pardubice have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 4-1 win away to Teplice.
- Zbrojovka Brno are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 1-3 defeat at home to Baník Ostrava.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 3 wins each, 0 draws; the most recent, 14 May 2023, ended Zbrojovka Brno 0–2 Pardubice.
More Czech Liga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Pardubice vs Zbrojovka Brno
Has the model earned this number?
Pardubice at 51%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Pardubice vs Zbrojovka Brno
Pardubice
Czech Liga
- W4-1away to Teplice8 November 2026
- L1-2Slovan Liberec31 October 2026
- W2-1away to Plzen25 October 2026
- W3-0Zlin17 October 2026
- L0-2away to Sparta Praha11 October 2026
Zbrojovka Brno
Czech Liga
- L1-3Baník Ostrava7 November 2026
- L0-3away to Sigma Olomouc31 October 2026
- D2-2Bohemians 190524 October 2026
- W2-1away to Slovácko18 October 2026
- L0-1FK Jablonec10 October 2026
What these results say
- Pardubice scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Pardubice conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Pardubice had three goals or more.
- Zbrojovka Brno conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Zbrojovka Brno failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Zbrojovka Brno had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Czech Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Pardubice | 14 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 19 | 20 | -1 | 17 |
| 10 | Zbrojovka Brno | 14 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 17 | 22 | -5 | 20 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Pardubice
Chance to finish in the top ten · 67% today
Zbrojovka Brno
Chance to finish in the top ten · 37% today
From our Czech Liga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Pardubice vs Zbrojovka Brno
- 14 May 2023Zbrojovka Brno 0–2 PardubiceCzech Liga
- 16 April 2023Zbrojovka Brno 2–1 PardubiceCzech Liga
- 22 October 2022Pardubice 1–3 Zbrojovka BrnoCzech Liga
- 26 June 2021Pardubice 0–2 Zbrojovka BrnoFriendlies Clubs
- 18 April 2021Zbrojovka Brno 1–2 PardubiceCzech Liga
- 12 December 2020Pardubice 2–1 Zbrojovka BrnoCzech Liga
Leading scorers: Pardubice and Zbrojovka Brno
Pardubice
No player in Czech Liga's leading scorers — 19 league goals as a side.
Zbrojovka Brno
GoalsAssists
- D. Vašulín50
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Zbrojovka Brno (10th, with Pardubice 12th), while our numbers lean to Pardubice. Pardubice rate 0.85 in attack and 1.22 in defence, Zbrojovka Brno 0.71 and 1.44 (lower is better in defence), so Pardubice have been the better side at both ends on recent expected goals, which the 3-point gap in the table does not yet show.
How the call on Pardubice v Zbrojovka Brno has moved
First published on 8 Nov at 47% / 27% / 26% (home / draw / away). After 1 update it reads 51% / 25% / 24%: the biggest move is Pardubice's chance of winning, up 4 points.
- Pardubice win51%▲ +4
- Draw25%▼ −2
- Zbrojovka Brno win24%▼ −2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Pardubice the highest probability at 51%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.85 expected goals for Pardubice against 1.11 for Zbrojovka Brno. Pardubice's attack/defence rating is 0.85/1.22 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.71/1.44 for Zbrojovka Brno.
How the model reaches 51% for Pardubice to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Pardubice to win. Then home advantage adds 5 points, Pardubice's ratings add 5 points and Zbrojovka Brno's ratings add 5 points, which lands on the published 51%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage41%+5
- Pardubice's ratings46%+5
- Zbrojovka Brno's ratings51%+5
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Pardubice at home · Zbrojovka Brno away
League matches only, Czech Liga, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
PardubiceZbrojovka Brno
Pardubice are 12th after 14 Czech Liga matches (between 10th and 15th so far); Zbrojovka Brno are 10th after 14 (between 2nd and 9th). How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Czech Liga matches this season: Pardubice 14, Zbrojovka Brno 14.
Pardubice score most often in the 46–60 minute window (7 goals); Zbrojovka Brno have let in 6 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Pardubice
- at FK Jablonec29 Nov · Czech Ligawin 37%
- vs Slavia Praha4 Dec · Czech Ligawin 17%
- at Mlada Boleslav12 Dec · Czech Ligawin 29%
- vs Sigma Olomouc30 Jan · Czech Ligawin 42%
- at Artis6 Feb · Czech Ligawin 48%
Zbrojovka Brno
- vs Plzen29 Nov · Czech Ligawin 22%
- at Slovan Liberec5 Dec · Czech Ligawin 21%
- at Hradec Králové12 Dec · Czech Ligawin 23%
- vs Teplice30 Jan · Czech Ligawin 34%
- at Zlin6 Feb · Czech Ligawin 38%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.