Sheffield Utd
vs
Southampton
Championship prediction
Our model says: Sheffield Utd 0–1 Southampton
The model makes it 30% Sheffield Utd, 28% draw, 42% Southampton — fair odds of 3.33, 3.57 and 2.38.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Sheffield Utd 1.19, Southampton 1.48.
Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 50%, under 2.5: 50%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,919 settled matches.
Edge to Southampton: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. Sheffield Utd's rating is built from 61 Championship matches and Southampton's from 63, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,294 matches.
Key facts
- Sheffield Utd are 10th on 22 points from 15 games; Southampton are 7th on 24 points from 15 games — Championship.
- Sheffield Utd have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to Charlton.
- Southampton have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Preston.
- Last 6 meetings: Southampton 5 wins to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 21 January 2026, ended Southampton 1–0 Sheffield Utd.
More Championship predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Sheffield Utd vs Southampton
Has the model earned this number?
Southampton at 42%: of 2,924 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.0% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Sheffield Utd vs Southampton
Sheffield Utd
Championship
- L1-2away to Charlton7 November 2026
- W3-2away to Preston3 November 2026
- W1-0Wrexham30 October 2026
- D1-1Derby24 October 2026
- W1-0away to Bristol City17 October 2026
Southampton
Championship
- L0-1away to Preston7 November 2026
- D1-1away to West Brom3 November 2026
- W4-1QPR31 October 2026
- W3-2away to West Ham24 October 2026
- D0-0Bolton17 October 2026
What these results say
- Sheffield Utd scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Southampton conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Sheffield Utd | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 21 | 19 | +2 | 22 |
| 7 | Southampton | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 29 | 15 | +14 | 24 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Southampton
Chance to finish in the top two · 35% today
From our Championship season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Sheffield Utd vs Southampton
Sheffield Utd and Southampton have met 6 times in the records we hold, Southampton has won 5 of them to Sheffield Utd's 0, with 1 drawn.
The record
Southampton won the last one 1–0 on 21 Jan 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sheffield Utd | 0 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 13 |
| Southampton | 5 | 1 | 0 | 13 | 4 |
Between them these 6 meetings produced 17 goals, an average of 2.83 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 21 Jan 2026
ChampionshipSouthampton 1–0 Sheffield Utd - 30 Sep 2025
ChampionshipSheffield Utd 1–2 Southampton - 21 Sep 2021
League CupSheffield Utd 2–2 Southampton - 6 Mar 2021
Premier LeagueSheffield Utd 0–2 Southampton - 13 Dec 2020
Premier LeagueSouthampton 3–0 Sheffield Utd - 26 Jul 2020
Premier LeagueSouthampton 3–1 Sheffield Utd
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, Southampton's attack rates 22% above Sheffield Utd's, and Southampton concede 23% fewer than Sheffield Utd. That gives Southampton the edge at both ends. How the ratings are derived.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| Sheffield Utd | 0.76 | 1.33 |
| Southampton | 0.93 | 1.03 |
Leading scorers: Sheffield Utd and Southampton
Sheffield Utd
GoalsAssists
- P. Bamford51
Southampton
GoalsAssists
- C. Larin70
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Sheffield Utd a 0.6% chance of the title and Southampton 19.4%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Southampton the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Sheffield Utd against 1.48 for Southampton. Sheffield Utd's attack/defence rating is 0.76/1.33 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.93/1.03 for Southampton.
How the model reaches 42% for Southampton to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Southampton to win. Then home advantage takes away 6 points, Sheffield Utd's ratings add 6 points and Southampton's ratings add 6 points, which lands on the published 42%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage30%−6
- Sheffield Utd's ratings36%+6
- Southampton's ratings42%+6
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Sheffield Utd at home · Southampton away
League matches only, Championship, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
Sheffield UtdSouthampton
Sheffield Utd are 10th after 15 Championship matches (between 8th and 15th so far); Southampton are 7th after 15 (between 2nd and 24th). Points deductions (Southampton −4) count from the first match. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Championship matches this season: Sheffield Utd 15, Southampton 15.
Southampton score most often in the 76–90 minute window (7 goals); Sheffield Utd have let in 6 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Sheffield Utd
- at QPR28 Nov · Championshipwin 30%
- vs West Ham4 Dec · Championshipwin 36%
- at Millwall8 Dec · Championshipwin 31%
- vs Burnley12 Dec · Championshipwin 52%
Southampton
- vs Middlesbrough27 Nov · Championshipwin 46%
- at Wolves5 Dec · Championshipwin 35%
- vs Burnley9 Dec · Championshipwin 65%
- at Cardiff12 Dec · Championshipwin 45%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.