Sharjah FC
vs
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
Pro League prediction
Our model says: Sharjah FC 1–2 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
The model makes it 23% Sharjah FC, 24% draw, 53% Shabab Al Ahli Dubai — fair odds of 4.35, 4.17 and 1.89. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Sharjah FC 1.17, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 2.06.
Both teams to score: 61%. Over 2.5 goals: 63%, under 2.5: 37%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 59% of the time, over 1,486 settled matches.
One-sided: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 24 October 2026. Sharjah FC's rating is built from 32 UAE Pro League matches and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's from 32, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 406 matches.
Key facts
- Sharjah FC are 6th on 12 points from 6 games; Shabab Al Ahli Dubai are 2nd on 13 points from 6 games — Pro League.
- Sharjah FC have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-1 win away to Ajman.
- Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-0 win at home to Al Ain.
- Last 6 meetings: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 5 February 2026, ended Sharjah FC 1–4 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai.
More UAE Pro League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Sharjah FC vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Shabab Al Ahli Dubai at 53% here. Across 4,534 settled matches (as of 24 October 2026), 1,113 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Sharjah FC vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
Sharjah FC
Pro League
- W3-1away to Ajman18 October 2026
- L0-1away to Al Wahda FC11 September 2026
- W4-3Dubai United5 September 2026
- W3-0away to Hatta SC30 August 2026
- L0-2Al-Jazira23 August 2026
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
Pro League
- W2-0Al Ain17 October 2026
- D1-1away to Dubai United10 September 2026
- L1-3Al-Jazira5 September 2026
- W1-0away to Al-Wasl FC28 August 2026
- W2-0Al-Dhafra22 August 2026
What these results say
- Sharjah FC conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Shabab Al Ahli Dubai scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Sharjah FC | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 8 | +5 | 12 |
| 2 | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 5 | +7 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Sharjah FC vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
- 5 February 2026Sharjah FC 1–4 Shabab Al Ahli DubaiPro League
- 27 December 2025Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 2–3 Sharjah FCSuper Cup
- 30 October 2025Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 2–0 Sharjah FCPro League
- 9 May 2025Sharjah FC 1–2 Shabab Al Ahli DubaiPresidents Cup
- 28 March 2025Sharjah FC 0–0 Shabab Al Ahli DubaiPro League
- 23 March 2025Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 2–2 Sharjah FCLeague Cup
Leading scorers: Sharjah FC and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
Sharjah FC
GoalsAssists
- Igor Coronado31
- Julimar30
- Agner20
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
No player in Pro League's leading scorers — 12 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Sharjah FC carry a model rating of 6.39 against 6.72 for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.17 goals for Sharjah FC and 2.06 for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Sharjah FC rate 0.66 in attack and 1.66 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Shabab Al Ahli Dubai rate 0.82 and 1.06.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Sharjah FC a 1.4% chance of the title and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 30.8%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,192 correct results out of 4,558 settled predictions (48%), with 452 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Shabab Al Ahli Dubai the highest probability at 53%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Sharjah FC against 2.06 for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai. Sharjah FC's attack/defence rating is 0.66/1.66 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.82/1.06 for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai.
How the model reaches 53% for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai to win. Then home advantage takes away 3 points, Sharjah FC's ratings add 28 points and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's ratings take away 9 points, which lands on the published 53%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage34%−3
- Sharjah FC's ratings62%+28
- Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's ratings53%−9
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Sharjah FC at home · Shabab Al Ahli Dubai away
League matches only, Pro League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Pro League matches this season: Sharjah FC 6, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 6.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); Sharjah FC have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Sharjah FC
- at Al-Ittihad Kalba20 Nov · Pro Leaguewin 44%
- vs Khorfakkan5 Dec · Pro Leaguewin 50%
- at Al-Wasl FC12 Dec · Pro Leaguewin 23%
- vs Al Ain26 Dec · Pro Leaguewin 23%
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
- vs Ajman20 Nov · Pro Leaguewin 65%
- vs Al-Qadisiyah FC24 Nov · AFC Champions League Elitewin 37%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.