Hatta SC
vs
Khorfakkan
Pro League prediction
Our model says: Hatta SC 1–2 Khorfakkan
The model makes it 33% Hatta SC, 26% draw, 41% Khorfakkan — fair odds of 3.03, 3.85 and 2.44. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Hatta SC 1.45, Khorfakkan 1.69.
Both teams to score: 63%. Over 2.5 goals: 61%, under 2.5: 39%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 45% of the time, over 2,115 settled matches.
Edge to Khorfakkan: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 24 October 2026. Hatta SC's rating is built from 6 UAE Pro League matches and Khorfakkan's from 32, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 406 matches.
Key facts
- Hatta SC are 13th on 3 points from 6 games; Khorfakkan are 12th on 4 points from 6 games — Pro League.
- Hatta SC have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat away to Al Nasr.
- Khorfakkan are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 2-3 defeat at home to Al Wahda FC.
- Last 6 meetings: Khorfakkan 4 wins to 0, 2 draws; the most recent, 24 February 2024, ended Hatta SC 0–2 Khorfakkan.
More UAE Pro League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Hatta SC vs Khorfakkan
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Khorfakkan at 41% here. Across 4,534 settled matches (as of 24 October 2026), 2,103 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Hatta SC vs Khorfakkan
Hatta SC
Pro League
- L0-2away to Al Nasr17 October 2026
- L1-2Al-Dhafra11 September 2026
- W1-0away to Baniyas SC5 September 2026
- L0-3Sharjah FC30 August 2026
- L3-4away to Ajman22 August 2026
Khorfakkan
Pro League
- L2-3Al Wahda FC18 October 2026
- D0-0Baniyas SC11 September 2026
- L2-5away to Al-Wasl FC4 September 2026
- W2-0Al-Dhafra29 August 2026
- L0-2away to Al Ain22 August 2026
What these results say
- Hatta SC failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Hatta SC conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Khorfakkan failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Hatta SC | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 13 | -8 | 3 |
| 12 | Khorfakkan | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 15 | -8 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Hatta SC vs Khorfakkan
- 24 February 2024Hatta SC 0–2 KhorfakkanPro League
- 19 August 2023Khorfakkan 2–1 Hatta SCPro League
- 15 March 2021Khorfakkan 1–0 Hatta SCPro League
- 30 November 2020Hatta SC 2–3 KhorfakkanPro League
- 2 February 2020Hatta SC 1–1 KhorfakkanPro League
- 27 September 2019Khorfakkan 1–1 Hatta SCPro League
Leading scorers: Hatta SC and Khorfakkan
Hatta SC
No player in Pro League's leading scorers — 5 league goals as a side.
Khorfakkan
GoalsAssists
- J. Flemmings20
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Hatta SC carry a model rating of 6.12 against 6.24 for Khorfakkan. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.45 goals for Hatta SC and 1.69 for Khorfakkan. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Hatta SC rate 0.45 in attack and 1.96 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Khorfakkan rate 0.57 and 1.92.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,192 correct results out of 4,558 settled predictions (48%), with 452 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Khorfakkan the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Hatta SC against 1.69 for Khorfakkan. Hatta SC's attack/defence rating is 0.45/1.96 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.57/1.92 for Khorfakkan.
How the model reaches 41% for Khorfakkan to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Khorfakkan to win. Then home advantage takes away 3 points, Hatta SC's ratings add 41 points and Khorfakkan's ratings take away 34 points, which lands on the published 41%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage34%−3
- Hatta SC's ratings75%+41
- Khorfakkan's ratings41%−34
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Hatta SC at home · Khorfakkan away
League matches only, Pro League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Pro League matches this season: Hatta SC 6, Khorfakkan 6.
Hatta SC score most often in the 31–45 minute window (2 goals); Khorfakkan have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Hatta SC
- at Al-Wasl FC19 Nov · Pro Leaguewin 13%
- vs Al-Ittihad Kalba5 Dec · Pro Leaguewin 33%
- at Al Ain12 Dec · Pro Leaguewin 10%
- vs Dubai United24 Dec · Pro Leaguewin 32%
Khorfakkan
- vs Al-Jazira21 Nov · Pro Leaguewin 21%
- at Sharjah FC5 Dec · Pro Leaguewin 27%
- vs Ajman13 Dec · Pro Leaguewin 37%
- at Al Nasr24 Dec · Pro Leaguewin 25%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.