Al Kholood
vs
Al Khaleej Saihat
Pro League prediction
Our model says: Al Kholood 2–1 Al Khaleej Saihat
The model makes it 38% Al Kholood, 26% draw, 36% Al Khaleej Saihat — fair odds of 2.63, 3.85 and 2.78. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Al Kholood 1.63, Al Khaleej Saihat 1.58.
Both teams to score: 64%. Over 2.5 goals: 62%, under 2.5: 38%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 37% of the time, over 934 settled matches.
A tight game: Al Kholood and Al Khaleej Saihat are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 22 October 2026. Al Kholood's rating is built from 43 Saudi Pro League matches and Al Khaleej Saihat's from 44, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 697 matches.
Key facts
- Al Kholood are 9th on 12 points from 9 games; Al Khaleej Saihat are 10th on 12 points from 10 games — Pro League.
- Al Kholood are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 2-3 defeat away to Al-Faisaly FC.
- Al Khaleej Saihat are unbeaten in their last 5 games (2 won), most recently a 3-2 win away to Al-Fateh.
- Last 6 meetings: Al Kholood 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 3 April 2026, ended Al Kholood 2–2 Al Khaleej Saihat.
More Saudi Pro League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Al Kholood vs Al Khaleej Saihat
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Al Kholood at 38% here. Across 4,394 settled matches (as of 22 October 2026), 3,406 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Al Kholood vs Al Khaleej Saihat
Al Kholood
- L2-3away to Al-Faisaly FC15 October 2026
- L0-5Al-Qadisiyah FC9 October 2026
- L0-2away to Al Riyadh13 September 2026
- W2-1Al Shabab9 September 2026
- D2-2away to Al-Fayha3 September 2026
Al Khaleej Saihat
- W3-2away to Al-Fateh18 October 2026
- W2-0Al-Fayha15 October 2026
- D1-1away to Al-Ettifaq10 October 2026
- D1-1Al-Nassr12 September 2026
- D0-0Al Riyadh7 September 2026
What these results say
- Al Kholood conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Al Kholood failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Al Kholood had three goals or more.
- Al Khaleej Saihat went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Al Khaleej Saihat scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Al Khaleej Saihat had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Al Kholood | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 14 | 18 | -4 | 12 |
| 10 | Al Khaleej Saihat | 10 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 9 | 13 | -4 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Al Kholood vs Al Khaleej Saihat
- 3 April 2026Al Kholood 2–2 Al Khaleej SaihatPro League
- 24 February 2026Al Khaleej Saihat 2–3 Al KholoodPro League
- 28 November 2025Al Kholood 4–3 Al Khaleej SaihatKing's Cup
- 1 March 2025Al Kholood 2–1 Al Khaleej SaihatPro League
- 4 October 2024Al Khaleej Saihat 1–0 Al KholoodPro League
- 14 February 2022Al Kholood 1–1 Al Khaleej SaihatDivision 1
Leading scorers: Al Kholood and Al Khaleej Saihat
Al Kholood
GoalsAssists
- J. Domingues42
- Iker Kortajarena41
Al Khaleej Saihat
GoalsAssists
- J. King40
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Al Kholood carry a model rating of 6.41 against 6.44 for Al Khaleej Saihat. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.63 goals for Al Kholood and 1.58 for Al Khaleej Saihat. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Al Kholood rate 0.68 in attack and 1.65 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Al Khaleej Saihat rate 0.65 and 1.47.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,124 correct results out of 4,403 settled predictions (48%), with 444 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Al Kholood the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.63 expected goals for Al Kholood against 1.58 for Al Khaleej Saihat. Al Kholood's attack/defence rating is 0.68/1.65 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.65/1.47 for Al Khaleej Saihat.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Al Kholood at home · Al Khaleej Saihat away
League matches only, Pro League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Pro League matches this season: Al Kholood 9, Al Khaleej Saihat 10.
Al Khaleej Saihat score most often in the 76–90 minute window (3 goals); Al Kholood have let in 5 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Al Kholood
- at NEOM20 Nov · Pro Leaguewin 23%
- vs Al-Hilal26 Nov · Pro Leaguewin 11%
Al Khaleej Saihat
- vs Al-Ittihad20 Nov · Pro Leaguewin 26%
- at Al-Faisaly FC26 Nov · Pro Leaguewin 34%
- vs Al Diriyah3 Dec · Pro Leaguewin 32%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.