Esteghlal Khuzestan
vs
Esteghlal FC
Persian Gulf Pro League prediction
Our model says: Esteghlal Khuzestan 0–1 Esteghlal FC
The model makes it 20% Esteghlal Khuzestan, 27% draw, 53% Esteghlal FC — fair odds of 5.00, 3.70 and 1.89. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1 (13%).
Expected goals: Esteghlal Khuzestan 0.85, Esteghlal FC 1.72.
Both teams to score: 48%. Over 2.5 goals: 47%, under 2.5: 53%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 59% of the time, over 1,491 settled matches.
One-sided: Esteghlal FC are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 24 October 2026. Esteghlal Khuzestan's rating is built from 31 Persian Gulf Pro League matches and Esteghlal FC's from 31, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Esteghlal Khuzestan are 17th on 6 points from 9 games; Esteghlal FC are 3rd on 20 points from 10 games — Persian Gulf Pro League.
- Esteghlal Khuzestan have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to Kheybar Khorramabad.
- Esteghlal FC are unbeaten in their last 5 games (2 won), most recently a 1-1 draw away to Chadormalu SC.
- Last 6 meetings: Esteghlal FC 4 wins to 2, 0 draws; the most recent, 27 January 2026, ended Esteghlal FC 1–0 Esteghlal Khuzestan.
More Persian Gulf Pro League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Esteghlal Khuzestan vs Esteghlal FC
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Esteghlal FC at 53% here. Across 4,534 settled matches (as of 24 October 2026), 1,113 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Esteghlal Khuzestan vs Esteghlal FC
Esteghlal Khuzestan
Persian Gulf Pro League
- L1-2away to Kheybar Khorramabad18 October 2026
- L0-3away to Gol Gohar8 October 2026
- W1-0Tractor Sazi10 September 2026
- L0-1away to Sepahan FC6 September 2026
- D1-1Chadormalu SC1 September 2026
Esteghlal FC
Persian Gulf Pro League
- D1-1away to Chadormalu SC23 October 2026
- W1-0Gol Gohar19 October 2026
- D1-1away to Tractor Sazi8 October 2026
- W1-0Paykan10 September 2026
- D0-0away to Aluminium Arak6 September 2026
What these results say
- Esteghlal Khuzestan failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Esteghlal Khuzestan conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Esteghlal FC went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Esteghlal FC had two goals or fewer.
- Esteghlal FC scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Persian Gulf Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Esteghlal Khuzestan | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 14 | -9 | 6 |
| 3 | Esteghlal FC | 10 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 12 | 3 | +9 | 20 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Esteghlal Khuzestan vs Esteghlal FC
- 27 January 2026Esteghlal FC 1–0 Esteghlal KhuzestanPersian Gulf Pro League
- 12 September 2025Esteghlal Khuzestan 1–0 Esteghlal FCPersian Gulf Pro League
- 30 January 2025Esteghlal FC 2–0 Esteghlal KhuzestanPersian Gulf Pro League
- 29 August 2024Esteghlal Khuzestan 1–0 Esteghlal FCPersian Gulf Pro League
- 8 March 2024Esteghlal Khuzestan 0–1 Esteghlal FCPersian Gulf Pro League
- 28 August 2023Esteghlal FC 1–0 Esteghlal KhuzestanPersian Gulf Pro League
A clear gap in the ratings
Esteghlal Khuzestan carry a model rating of 6.18 against 6.69 for Esteghlal FC. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 0.85 goals for Esteghlal Khuzestan and 1.72 for Esteghlal FC. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Esteghlal Khuzestan rate 0.51 in attack and 1.95 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Esteghlal FC rate 0.73 and 1.03.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Esteghlal Khuzestan a 0% chance of the title and Esteghlal FC 5.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,204 correct results out of 4,575 settled predictions (48%), with 454 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Esteghlal FC the highest probability at 53%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.85 expected goals for Esteghlal Khuzestan against 1.72 for Esteghlal FC. Esteghlal Khuzestan's attack/defence rating is 0.51/1.95 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.73/1.03 for Esteghlal FC.
How the model reaches 53% for Esteghlal FC to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Esteghlal FC to win. Then home advantage takes away 7 points, Esteghlal Khuzestan's ratings add 36 points and Esteghlal FC's ratings take away 12 points, which lands on the published 53%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage29%−7
- Esteghlal Khuzestan's ratings65%+36
- Esteghlal FC's ratings53%−12
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Esteghlal Khuzestan at home · Esteghlal FC away
League matches only, Persian Gulf Pro League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Persian Gulf Pro League matches this season: Esteghlal Khuzestan 9, Esteghlal FC 10.
Esteghlal FC score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Esteghlal Khuzestan have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 2 matches, by difficulty
Esteghlal Khuzestan
No further matches on our board yet.
Esteghlal FC
- at Al Ain23 Nov · AFC Champions League Elitewin 25%
- vs Neftchi Fergana7 Dec · AFC Champions League Elitewin 69%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.