Accrington Stanley
vs
Wycombe
FA Cup prediction
Our model says: Accrington Stanley 1–2 Wycombe
The model makes it 36% Accrington Stanley, 26% draw, 38% Wycombe — fair odds of 2.78, 3.85 and 2.63. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Accrington Stanley 1.58, Wycombe 1.65.
Both teams to score: 65%. Over 2.5 goals: 63%, under 2.5: 37%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 957 settled matches.
A tight game: Accrington Stanley and Wycombe are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published
Key facts
- Accrington Stanley are 11th in League Two on 15 points from 12 games; Wycombe are 15th in League One on 14 points from 11 games.
- Accrington Stanley are unbeaten in their last 5 League Two games (2 won), most recently a 1-1 draw away to York.
- Wycombe have won 2 of their last 5 League One games, most recently a 2-2 draw away to Cambridge United.
- Last 5 meetings: Wycombe 3 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 14 February 2023, ended Accrington Stanley 0–2 Wycombe.
Chance to go through
FA Cup 1/128-finals — a single match: the winner goes through.
- Accrington Stanley37%
- Level after ninety minutes24%
- Wycombe39%
The model's chance of each side going through in ninety minutes. Level means extra time or penalties, which it does not forecast. A new figure: not yet checked against settled ties, so read it as an estimate, not a record.
More FA Cup predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Accrington Stanley vs Wycombe
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Wycombe at 38% here. Across 4,534 settled matches (as of 24 October 2026), 3,490 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Accrington Stanley vs Wycombe
Accrington Stanley
League Two
- D1-1away to York20 October 2026
- W3-1Gillingham17 October 2026
- D0-0away to Oldham10 October 2026
- W2-0Cheltenham3 October 2026
- D1-1away to Swindon Town26 September 2026
Wycombe
League One
- D2-2away to Cambridge United20 October 2026
- W2-0Notts County17 October 2026
- L1-4Luton10 October 2026
- D2-2Reading26 September 2026
- W1-0away to Wigan19 September 2026
What these results say
- Accrington Stanley went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Accrington Stanley scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Accrington Stanley had two goals or fewer.
- Wycombe scored in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Accrington Stanley and Wycombe in their domestic leagues
| # | Team | League | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Accrington Stanley | League Two | 12 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 17 | 16 | +1 | 15 |
| 15 | Wycombe | League One | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 18 | 22 | -4 | 14 |
Each side's position in its own domestic league — they meet here from different competitions. Full tables: League Two · League One
Head-to-head: Accrington Stanley vs Wycombe
- 14 February 2023Accrington Stanley 0–2 WycombeLeague One
- 13 September 2022Wycombe 1–0 Accrington StanleyLeague One
- 26 February 2022Accrington Stanley 3–2 WycombeLeague One
- 7 August 2021Wycombe 2–1 Accrington StanleyLeague One
- 17 September 2019Wycombe 1–1 Accrington StanleyLeague One
Leading scorers: Accrington Stanley and Wycombe
Accrington Stanley
GoalsAssists
- J. Woods61
- C. Caton50
Wycombe
GoalsAssists
- J. Wareham50
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Accrington Stanley carry a model rating of 6.11 against 6.29 for Wycombe. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.58 goals for Accrington Stanley and 1.65 for Wycombe. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Accrington Stanley rate 0.47 in attack and 2.07 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Wycombe rate 0.66 and 2.07.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,192 correct results out of 4,558 settled predictions (48%), with 452 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Wycombe the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Accrington Stanley against 1.65 for Wycombe. Accrington Stanley's attack/defence rating is 0.47/2.07 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.66/2.07 for Wycombe.
How the model reaches 38% for Wycombe to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Wycombe to win. Then home advantage takes away 7 points, Accrington Stanley's ratings add 40 points and Wycombe's ratings take away 31 points, which lands on the published 38%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage29%−7
- Accrington Stanley's ratings69%+40
- Wycombe's ratings38%−31
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Accrington Stanley at home · Wycombe away
League matches only, this season — Accrington Stanley in the League Two, Wycombe in the League One. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All league matches this season: Accrington Stanley 12 in the League Two, Wycombe 11 in the League One.
Accrington Stanley score most often in the 0–15 minute window (5 goals); Wycombe have let in 1 there.
Wycombe score most often in the 31–45 minute window (6 goals); Accrington Stanley have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Accrington Stanley
- at Port Vale14 Nov · League Twowin 33%
- vs Salford City21 Nov · League Twowin 33%
- at Fleetwood Town28 Nov · League Twowin 31%
- vs Crewe1 Dec · League Twowin 37%
Wycombe
- vs Huddersfield14 Nov · League Onewin 34%
- at Oxford United21 Nov · League Onewin 22%
- vs Bradford28 Nov · League Onewin 35%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.