Al-Qadisiyah FC
vs
Al-Fayha
Pro League prediction
Our model says: Al-Qadisiyah FC 2–0 Al-Fayha
The model makes it 70% Al-Qadisiyah FC, 18% draw, 12% Al-Fayha — fair odds of 1.43, 5.56 and 8.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (10%).
Expected goals: Al-Qadisiyah FC 2.80, Al-Fayha 0.91.
Both teams to score: 56%. Over 2.5 goals: 71%, under 2.5: 29%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 59% of the time, over 1,433 settled matches.
One-sided: Al-Qadisiyah FC are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 22 October 2026. Al-Qadisiyah FC's rating is built from 44 Saudi Pro League matches and Al-Fayha's from 44, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 697 matches.
Key facts
- Al-Qadisiyah FC are top on 25 points from 10 games; Al-Fayha are 15th on 7 points from 10 games — Pro League.
- Al-Qadisiyah FC are unbeaten in their last 5 games (4 won), most recently a 1-0 win away to Al Taawon.
- Al-Fayha have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 2-3 defeat at home to Al-Ahli Jeddah.
- Last 6 meetings: Al-Qadisiyah FC 4 wins to 2, 0 draws; the most recent, 9 May 2026, ended Al-Fayha 1–2 Al-Qadisiyah FC.
More Saudi Pro League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Fayha
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Al-Qadisiyah FC at 70% here. Across 4,394 settled matches (as of 22 October 2026), 349 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 64.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 73.7%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal. The full record.
Form going into Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Fayha
Al-Qadisiyah FC
- W1-0away to Al Taawon20 October 2026
- W2-1Abha16 October 2026
- W5-0away to Al Kholood9 October 2026
- D3-3Al-Ettifaq11 September 2026
- W3-2Al-Ahli Jeddah8 September 2026
Al-Fayha
- L2-3Al-Ahli Jeddah19 October 2026
- L0-2away to Al Khaleej Saihat15 October 2026
- D1-1Al Riyadh11 October 2026
- D0-0away to Al Shabab12 September 2026
- L1-2away to Al-Ittihad8 September 2026
What these results say
- Al-Qadisiyah FC went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Al-Qadisiyah FC scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Al-Qadisiyah FC won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Al-Fayha did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Al-Fayha conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al-Qadisiyah FC | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 24 | 9 | +15 | 25 |
| 15 | Al-Fayha | 10 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 10 | 17 | -7 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Fayha
- 9 May 2026Al-Fayha 1–2 Al-Qadisiyah FCPro League
- 14 January 2026Al-Qadisiyah FC 5–0 Al-FayhaPro League
- 12 April 2025Al-Fayha 2–1 Al-Qadisiyah FCPro League
- 7 November 2024Al-Qadisiyah FC 2–0 Al-FayhaPro League
- 2 February 2019Al-Qadisiyah FC 2–0 Al-FayhaPro League
- 28 September 2018Al-Fayha 4–2 Al-Qadisiyah FCPro League
Leading scorers: Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Fayha
Al-Qadisiyah FC
GoalsAssists
- M. Retegui62
- T. Reijnders51
- Mohammed Abu Al Shamat44
Al-Fayha
No player in Pro League's leading scorers — 10 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
A clear gap in the ratings
Al-Qadisiyah FC carry a model rating of 6.94 against 6.43 for Al-Fayha. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.80 goals for Al-Qadisiyah FC and 0.91 for Al-Fayha. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Al-Qadisiyah FC rate 1.18 in attack and 0.99 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Al-Fayha rate 0.62 and 1.45.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Al-Qadisiyah FC a 19.2% chance of the title and Al-Fayha 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,124 correct results out of 4,403 settled predictions (48%), with 444 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Al-Qadisiyah FC the highest probability at 70%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.80 expected goals for Al-Qadisiyah FC against 0.91 for Al-Fayha. Al-Qadisiyah FC's attack/defence rating is 1.18/0.99 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.62/1.45 for Al-Fayha.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Al-Qadisiyah FC at home · Al-Fayha away
League matches only, Pro League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Pro League matches this season: Al-Qadisiyah FC 10, Al-Fayha 10.
Al-Qadisiyah FC score most often in the 0–15 minute window (6 goals); Al-Fayha have let in 1 there.
Al-Fayha score most often in the 31–45 minute window (3 goals); Al-Qadisiyah FC have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Al-Qadisiyah FC
- at Al-Nassr20 Nov · Pro Leaguewin 34%
Al-Fayha
- vs Al-Fateh20 Nov · Pro Leaguewin 42%
- at Al Diriyah26 Nov · Pro Leaguewin 27%
- vs Al-Nassr3 Dec · Pro Leaguewin 15%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.