Sharjah FC
vs
Al Nasr
Pro League prediction
Our model says: Sharjah FC 1–2 Al Nasr
The model makes it 35% Sharjah FC, 27% draw, 38% Al Nasr — fair odds of 2.86, 3.70 and 2.63. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Sharjah FC 1.47, Al Nasr 1.56.
Both teams to score: 61%. Over 2.5 goals: 58%, under 2.5: 42%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: Sharjah FC and Al Nasr are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published
Key facts
- Sharjah FC are 7th on 9 points from 5 games; Al Nasr are 8th on 8 points from 6 games — Pro League.
- Sharjah FC have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Al Wahda FC.
- Al Nasr have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-0 win at home to Hatta SC.
- Last 6 meetings: Sharjah FC 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 11 March 2026, ended Sharjah FC 1–2 Al Nasr.
More UAE Pro League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Sharjah FC vs Al Nasr
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Al Nasr at 38% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 3,180 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Sharjah FC vs Al Nasr
Sharjah FC
- L0-1away to Al Wahda FC11 September 2026
- W4-3Dubai United5 September 2026
- W3-0away to Hatta SC30 August 2026
- L0-2Al-Jazira23 August 2026
- W3-1away to Al-Dhafra15 August 2026
Al Nasr
- W2-0Hatta SC17 October 2026
- D1-1away to Al-Jazira10 September 2026
- L1-2Ajman6 September 2026
- L1-2away to Al Ain29 August 2026
- W1-0Al Wahda FC21 August 2026
What these results say
- Sharjah FC conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Al Nasr scored in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Sharjah FC | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 7 | +3 | 9 |
| 8 | Al Nasr | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 7 | +1 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Sharjah FC vs Al Nasr
- 11 March 2026Sharjah FC 1–2 Al NasrPro League
- 6 January 2026Al Nasr 2–4 Sharjah FCPro League
- 18 April 2025Al Nasr 2–1 Sharjah FCPro League
- 22 November 2024Sharjah FC 3–0 Al NasrPro League
- 18 October 2024Al Nasr 0–2 Sharjah FCPresidents Cup
- 14 March 2024Sharjah FC 2–2 Al NasrPro League
Leading scorers: Sharjah FC and Al Nasr
Sharjah FC
GoalsAssists
- Igor Coronado31
- Julimar30
- Agner20
Al Nasr
No player in Pro League's leading scorers — 8 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Sharjah FC carry a model rating of 6.35 against 6.43 for Al Nasr. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.47 goals for Sharjah FC and 1.56 for Al Nasr. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Sharjah FC rate 0.63 in attack and 1.73 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Al Nasr rate 0.60 and 1.39.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Sharjah FC, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Sharjah FC a 0.4% chance of the title and Al Nasr 0.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,973 correct results out of 4,112 settled predictions (48%), with 412 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Al Nasr the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Sharjah FC against 1.56 for Al Nasr. Sharjah FC's attack/defence rating is 0.63/1.73 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.6/1.39 for Al Nasr.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Sharjah FC at home · Al Nasr away
League matches only, Pro League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Pro League matches this season: Sharjah FC 5, Al Nasr 6.
Sharjah FC score most often in the 31–45 minute window (3 goals); Al Nasr have let in 0 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Sharjah FC
- vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai7 Nov · Pro Leaguewin 20%
- at Al-Ittihad Kalba20 Nov · Pro Leaguewin 42%
- vs Khorfakkan5 Dec · Pro Leaguewin 46%
- at Al-Wasl FC12 Dec · Pro Leaguewin 21%
Al Nasr
- vs Dubai United8 Nov · Pro Leaguewin 53%
- at Baniyas SC21 Nov · Pro Leaguewin 45%
- vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai4 Dec · Pro Leaguewin 24%
- at Al-Dhafra13 Dec · Pro Leaguewin 45%
- vs Khorfakkan24 Dec · Pro Leaguewin 50%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.