Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
vs
Al-Ittihad Kalba
Pro League prediction
Our model says: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 2–0 Al-Ittihad Kalba
The model makes it 67% Shabab Al Ahli Dubai, 19% draw, 14% Al-Ittihad Kalba — fair odds of 1.49, 5.26 and 7.14. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (10%).
Expected goals: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 2.65, Al-Ittihad Kalba 0.94.
Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 69%, under 2.5: 31%.
Model confidence: High.
One-sided: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Key facts
- Shabab Al Ahli Dubai are 3rd on 10 points from 5 games; Al-Ittihad Kalba are 10th on 4 points from 5 games — Pro League.
- Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Dubai United.
- Al-Ittihad Kalba have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-2 win away to Ajman.
- Last 6 meetings: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 4 wins to 0, 2 draws; the most recent, 11 March 2026, ended Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 5–1 Al-Ittihad Kalba.
More UAE Pro League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al-Ittihad Kalba
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Shabab Al Ahli Dubai at 67% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 321 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 63.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.1%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal. The full record.
Form going into Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al-Ittihad Kalba
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
- D1-1away to Dubai United10 September 2026
- L1-3Al-Jazira5 September 2026
- W1-0away to Al-Wasl FC28 August 2026
- W2-0Al-Dhafra22 August 2026
- W5-1away to Khorfakkan15 August 2026
Al-Ittihad Kalba
- W3-2away to Ajman11 September 2026
- L0-2Al Ain4 September 2026
- L1-4away to Dubai United28 August 2026
- L0-3Al-Wasl FC21 August 2026
- D2-2away to Al Nasr14 August 2026
What these results say
- Shabab Al Ahli Dubai scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Al-Ittihad Kalba conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Al-Ittihad Kalba failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Al-Ittihad Kalba had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 5 | +5 | 10 |
| 10 | Al-Ittihad Kalba | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al-Ittihad Kalba
- 11 March 2026Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 5–1 Al-Ittihad KalbaPro League
- 17 October 2025Al-Ittihad Kalba 0–0 Shabab Al Ahli DubaiPro League
- 11 April 2025Al-Ittihad Kalba 1–2 Shabab Al Ahli DubaiPro League
- 22 November 2024Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 0–0 Al-Ittihad KalbaPro League
- 21 April 2024Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 4–1 Al-Ittihad KalbaPro League
- 3 November 2023Al-Ittihad Kalba 1–3 Shabab Al Ahli DubaiPro League
Leading scorers: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Al-Ittihad Kalba
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
No player in Pro League's leading scorers — 10 league goals as a side.
Al-Ittihad Kalba
GoalsAssists
- Carlos Alberto11
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai carry a model rating of 6.67 against 6.2 for Al-Ittihad Kalba. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.65 goals for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and 0.94 for Al-Ittihad Kalba. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai rate 0.82 in attack and 1.17 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Al-Ittihad Kalba rate 0.53 and 1.93.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,821 correct results out of 3,803 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Shabab Al Ahli Dubai the highest probability at 67%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.65 expected goals for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai against 0.94 for Al-Ittihad Kalba. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's attack/defence rating is 0.82/1.17 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.53/1.93 for Al-Ittihad Kalba.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai at home · Al-Ittihad Kalba away
League matches only, Pro League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Pro League matches this season: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 5, Al-Ittihad Kalba 5.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); Al-Ittihad Kalba have let in 4 there.
Al-Ittihad Kalba score most often in the 16–30 minute window (2 goals); Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
- at Al-Hilal3 Nov · AFC Champions League Elitewin 13%
- at Sharjah FC7 Nov · Pro Leaguewin 54%
- vs Ajman20 Nov · Pro Leaguewin 61%
Al-Ittihad Kalba
- at Al-Dhafra7 Nov · Pro Leaguewin 40%
- vs Sharjah FC20 Nov · Pro Leaguewin 32%
- at Hatta SC5 Dec · Pro Leaguewin 37%
- vs Al Wahda FC13 Dec · Pro Leaguewin 28%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.