Al-Dhafra
vs
Al-Ittihad Kalba
Pro League prediction
Our model says: Al-Dhafra 2–1 Al-Ittihad Kalba
The model makes it 39% Al-Dhafra, 26% draw, 35% Al-Ittihad Kalba — fair odds of 2.56, 3.85 and 2.86. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Al-Dhafra 1.60, Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.47.
Both teams to score: 62%. Over 2.5 goals: 59%, under 2.5: 41%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 957 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 24 October 2026. Al-Dhafra's rating is built from 32 UAE Pro League matches and Al-Ittihad Kalba's from 32, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 406 matches.
Key facts
- Al-Dhafra are 10th on 6 points from 6 games; Al-Ittihad Kalba are 11th on 5 points from 6 games — Pro League.
- Al-Dhafra have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 5-1 win at home to Dubai United.
- Al-Ittihad Kalba have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-2 draw at home to Al-Jazira.
- Last 6 meetings: Al-Ittihad Kalba 2 wins to 1, 3 draws; the most recent, 26 February 2026, ended Al-Ittihad Kalba 1–1 Al-Dhafra.
More UAE Pro League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Al-Dhafra vs Al-Ittihad Kalba
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Al-Dhafra at 39% here. Across 4,534 settled matches (as of 24 October 2026), 3,490 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Al-Dhafra vs Al-Ittihad Kalba
Al-Dhafra
Pro League
- W5-1Dubai United16 October 2026
- W2-1away to Hatta SC11 September 2026
- L0-1Al Wahda FC6 September 2026
- L0-2away to Khorfakkan29 August 2026
- L0-2away to Shabab Al Ahli Dubai22 August 2026
Al-Ittihad Kalba
Pro League
- D2-2Al-Jazira18 October 2026
- W3-2away to Ajman11 September 2026
- L0-2Al Ain4 September 2026
- L1-4away to Dubai United28 August 2026
- L0-3Al-Wasl FC21 August 2026
What these results say
- Al-Dhafra conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Al-Ittihad Kalba conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Al-Ittihad Kalba failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Al-Ittihad Kalba had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Al-Dhafra | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 10 | -2 | 6 |
| 11 | Al-Ittihad Kalba | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 15 | -7 | 5 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Al-Dhafra vs Al-Ittihad Kalba
- 26 February 2026Al-Ittihad Kalba 1–1 Al-DhafraPro League
- 1 November 2025Al-Dhafra 3–0 Al-Ittihad KalbaPro League
- 10 February 2023Al-Dhafra 0–2 Al-Ittihad KalbaPro League
- 16 September 2022Al-Ittihad Kalba 2–0 Al-DhafraPro League
- 11 March 2022Al-Ittihad Kalba 2–2 Al-DhafraPro League
- 28 September 2021Al-Dhafra 1–1 Al-Ittihad KalbaPro League
Leading scorers: Al-Dhafra and Al-Ittihad Kalba
Al-Dhafra
GoalsAssists
- S. Kaba21
Al-Ittihad Kalba
GoalsAssists
- B. Tetteh22
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Al-Dhafra carry a model rating of 6.22 against 6.23 for Al-Ittihad Kalba. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.60 goals for Al-Dhafra and 1.47 for Al-Ittihad Kalba. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Al-Dhafra rate 0.50 in attack and 1.76 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Al-Ittihad Kalba rate 0.55 and 1.90.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,192 correct results out of 4,558 settled predictions (48%), with 452 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Al-Dhafra the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.60 expected goals for Al-Dhafra against 1.47 for Al-Ittihad Kalba. Al-Dhafra's attack/defence rating is 0.5/1.76 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.55/1.9 for Al-Ittihad Kalba.
How the model reaches 39% for Al-Dhafra to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Al-Dhafra to win. Then home advantage adds 3 points, Al-Dhafra's ratings take away 28 points and Al-Ittihad Kalba's ratings add 27 points, which lands on the published 39%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage40%+3
- Al-Dhafra's ratings12%−28
- Al-Ittihad Kalba's ratings39%+27
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Al-Dhafra at home · Al-Ittihad Kalba away
League matches only, Pro League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Pro League matches this season: Al-Dhafra 6, Al-Ittihad Kalba 6.
Al-Dhafra score most often in the 46–60 minute window (3 goals); Al-Ittihad Kalba have let in 1 there.
Al-Ittihad Kalba score most often in the 0–15 minute window (3 goals); Al-Dhafra have let in 0 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Al-Dhafra
- at Al Ain19 Nov · Pro Leaguewin 13%
- vs Baniyas SC5 Dec · Pro Leaguewin 39%
- vs Al Nasr13 Dec · Pro Leaguewin 28%
- at Al-Jazira25 Dec · Pro Leaguewin 17%
Al-Ittihad Kalba
- vs Sharjah FC20 Nov · Pro Leaguewin 31%
- at Hatta SC5 Dec · Pro Leaguewin 41%
- vs Al Wahda FC13 Dec · Pro Leaguewin 28%
- vs Baniyas SC24 Dec · Pro Leaguewin 41%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.