Dubai United
vs
Khorfakkan
Pro League prediction
Our model says: Dubai United 2–1 Khorfakkan
The model makes it 51% Dubai United, 22% draw, 27% Khorfakkan — fair odds of 1.96, 4.55 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (8%).
Expected goals: Dubai United 2.46, Khorfakkan 1.68.
Both teams to score: 75%. Over 2.5 goals: 78%, under 2.5: 22%.
Model confidence: High.
Edge to Dubai United: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Key facts
- Dubai United are 8th on 7 points from 5 games; Khorfakkan are 11th on 4 points from 5 games — Pro League.
- Dubai United have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Shabab Al Ahli Dubai.
- Khorfakkan have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-0 draw at home to Baniyas SC.
More UAE Pro League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Dubai United vs Khorfakkan
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Dubai United at 51% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 907 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Dubai United vs Khorfakkan
Dubai United
- D1-1Shabab Al Ahli Dubai10 September 2026
- L3-4away to Sharjah FC5 September 2026
- W4-1Al-Ittihad Kalba28 August 2026
- W3-2away to Baniyas SC23 August 2026
- L1-5away to Al-Wasl FC15 August 2026
Khorfakkan
- D0-0Baniyas SC11 September 2026
- L2-5away to Al-Wasl FC4 September 2026
- W2-0Al-Dhafra29 August 2026
- L0-2away to Al Ain22 August 2026
- L1-5Shabab Al Ahli Dubai15 August 2026
What these results say
- Dubai United scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Dubai United conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in every one of these 5 matches for Dubai United.
- Khorfakkan failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Dubai United | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 13 | -1 | 7 |
| 11 | Khorfakkan | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 12 | -7 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Leading scorers: Dubai United and Khorfakkan
Dubai United
GoalsAssists
- Willy Semedo31
- Adeel Al Chadli22
- S. Babicka21
Khorfakkan
GoalsAssists
- J. Flemmings20
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Dubai United carry a model rating of 6.4 against 6.23 for Khorfakkan. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.46 goals for Dubai United and 1.68 for Khorfakkan. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Dubai United rate 0.79 in attack and 2.05 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Khorfakkan rate 0.54 and 1.86.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,821 correct results out of 3,803 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Dubai United the highest probability at 51%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.46 expected goals for Dubai United against 1.68 for Khorfakkan. Dubai United's attack/defence rating is 0.79/2.05 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.54/1.86 for Khorfakkan.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Dubai United at home · Khorfakkan away
League matches only, Pro League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Pro League matches this season: Dubai United 5, Khorfakkan 5.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Dubai United
- at Al Nasr8 Nov · Pro Leaguewin 34%
- vs Al Wahda FC21 Nov · Pro Leaguewin 38%
- at Ajman4 Dec · Pro Leaguewin 38%
- vs Al-Jazira13 Dec · Pro Leaguewin 26%
Khorfakkan
- at Hatta SC7 Nov · Pro Leaguewin 38%
- vs Al-Jazira21 Nov · Pro Leaguewin 20%
- at Sharjah FC5 Dec · Pro Leaguewin 28%
- vs Ajman13 Dec · Pro Leaguewin 34%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.