Seattle Sounders
vs
Los Angeles FC
Major League Soccer prediction
Our model says: Seattle Sounders 0–1 Los Angeles FC
The model makes it 35% Seattle Sounders, 29% draw, 36% Los Angeles FC — fair odds of 2.86, 3.45 and 2.78. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Seattle Sounders 1.21, Los Angeles FC 1.24.
Both teams to score: 50%. Over 2.5 goals: 44%, under 2.5: 56%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,017 settled matches.
A tight game: Seattle Sounders and Los Angeles FC are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 25 October 2026. Seattle Sounders's rating is built from 68 MLS matches and Los Angeles FC's from 68, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,527 matches.
Key facts
- Seattle Sounders are 7th on 43 points from 31 games; Los Angeles FC are 6th on 46 points from 31 games — Major League Soccer, Western Conference.
- Seattle Sounders are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 2-2 draw away to San Diego.
- Los Angeles FC are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to New York City FC.
- Last 6 meetings: Los Angeles FC 4 wins to 2, 0 draws; the most recent, 25 May 2026, ended Los Angeles FC 1–0 Seattle Sounders.
More MLS predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Seattle Sounders vs Los Angeles FC
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Los Angeles FC at 36% here. Across 4,776 settled matches (as of 25 October 2026), 3,676 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Seattle Sounders vs Los Angeles FC
Seattle Sounders
Major League Soccer
- D2-2away to San Diego25 October 2026
- D1-1CF Montreal18 October 2026
- L0-1away to FC Dallas15 October 2026
- W3-0away to New England Revolution10 October 2026
- W2-1Sporting Kansas City2 October 2026
Los Angeles FC
Major League Soccer
- D1-1away to New York City FC17 October 2026
- W3-1Austin15 October 2026
- D1-1Vancouver Whitecaps11 October 2026
- L0-1away to FC Dallas27 September 2026
- D2-2away to San Jose Earthquakes19 September 2026
What these results say
- Seattle Sounders scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Seattle Sounders conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Los Angeles FC conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Los Angeles FC failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Los Angeles FC scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Seattle Sounders | 31 | 11 | 10 | 10 | 41 | 39 | +2 | 43 |
| 6 | Los Angeles FC | 31 | 12 | 10 | 9 | 48 | 33 | +15 | 46 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Seattle Sounders
Chance to finish in the top nine · 96% today
From our Major League Soccer season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Seattle Sounders vs Los Angeles FC
- 25 May 2026Los Angeles FC 1–0 Seattle SoundersMajor League Soccer
- 15 May 2025Los Angeles FC 4–0 Seattle SoundersMajor League Soccer
- 8 March 2025Seattle Sounders 5–2 Los Angeles FCMajor League Soccer
- 24 November 2024Los Angeles FC 1–2 Seattle SoundersMajor League Soccer
- 29 August 2024Seattle Sounders 0–1 Los Angeles FCUS Open Cup
- 18 August 2024Seattle Sounders 0–3 Los Angeles FCLeagues Cup
Leading scorers: Seattle Sounders and Los Angeles FC
Seattle Sounders
No player in Major League Soccer's leading scorers — 41 league goals as a side.
Los Angeles FC
GoalsAssists
- D. Bouanga175
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Seattle Sounders carry a model rating of 6.5 against 6.63 for Los Angeles FC. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.21 goals for Seattle Sounders and 1.24 for Los Angeles FC. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Seattle Sounders rate 0.61 in attack and 1.25 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Los Angeles FC rate 0.68 and 1.08.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,309 correct results out of 4,819 settled predictions (48%), with 476 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Los Angeles FC the highest probability at 36%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Seattle Sounders against 1.24 for Los Angeles FC. Seattle Sounders's attack/defence rating is 0.61/1.25 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.68/1.08 for Los Angeles FC.
How the model reaches 36% for Los Angeles FC to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Los Angeles FC to win. Then home advantage takes away 6 points, Seattle Sounders's ratings add 19 points and Los Angeles FC's ratings take away 14 points, which lands on the published 36%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage31%−6
- Seattle Sounders's ratings50%+19
- Los Angeles FC's ratings36%−14
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Seattle Sounders at home · Los Angeles FC away
League matches only, Major League Soccer, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Major League Soccer matches this season: Seattle Sounders 30, Los Angeles FC 31.
Seattle Sounders score most often in the 76–90 minute window (13 goals); Los Angeles FC have let in 6 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.