San Diego
vs
Sporting Kansas City
Major League Soccer prediction
Our model says: San Diego 2–1 Sporting Kansas City
The model makes it 61% San Diego, 19% draw, 20% Sporting Kansas City — fair odds of 1.64, 5.26 and 5.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (8%).
Expected goals: San Diego 2.91, Sporting Kansas City 1.49.
Both teams to score: 73%. Over 2.5 goals: 81%, under 2.5: 19%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 59% of the time, over 1,566 settled matches.
Edge to San Diego: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 25 October 2026. San Diego's rating is built from 70 MLS matches and Sporting Kansas City's from 65, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,527 matches.
Key facts
- San Diego are 12th on 35 points from 31 games; Sporting Kansas City are bottom on 22 points from 31 games — Major League Soccer, Western Conference.
- San Diego have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 2-2 draw at home to Seattle Sounders.
- Sporting Kansas City have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat at home to Austin.
- Last 3 meetings: San Diego 2 wins to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 8 March 2026, ended Sporting Kansas City 0–1 San Diego.
More MLS predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: San Diego vs Sporting Kansas City
Has the model earned this number?
It puts San Diego at 61% here. Across 4,776 settled matches (as of 25 October 2026), 1,179 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into San Diego vs Sporting Kansas City
San Diego
Major League Soccer
- D2-2Seattle Sounders25 October 2026
- D2-2away to Los Angeles Galaxy18 October 2026
- D3-3Houston Dynamo15 October 2026
- L1-4away to New York Red Bulls10 October 2026
- D3-3away to Austin27 September 2026
Sporting Kansas City
Major League Soccer
- L1-2Austin25 October 2026
- L1-3Real Salt Lake18 October 2026
- L0-4away to Nashville SC15 October 2026
- D3-3Portland Timbers11 October 2026
- L1-2away to Seattle Sounders2 October 2026
What these results say
- San Diego did not win any of these 5 matches.
- San Diego scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- San Diego conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Sporting Kansas City did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Sporting Kansas City conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Sporting Kansas City had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | San Diego | 31 | 8 | 11 | 12 | 55 | 58 | -3 | 35 |
| 15 | Sporting Kansas City | 31 | 6 | 4 | 21 | 37 | 77 | -40 | 22 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
San Diego
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 52% today
From our Major League Soccer season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: San Diego vs Sporting Kansas City
- 8 March 2026Sporting Kansas City 0–1 San DiegoMajor League Soccer
- 10 August 2025Sporting Kansas City 0–2 San DiegoMajor League Soccer
- 18 May 2025San Diego 0–0 Sporting Kansas CityMajor League Soccer
The two sides
San Diego carry a model rating of 6.46 against 6.24 for Sporting Kansas City. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.91 goals for San Diego and 1.49 for Sporting Kansas City. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
San Diego rate 0.76 in attack and 1.67 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Sporting Kansas City rate 0.61 and 2.09.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,309 correct results out of 4,819 settled predictions (48%), with 476 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives San Diego the highest probability at 61%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.91 expected goals for San Diego against 1.49 for Sporting Kansas City. San Diego's attack/defence rating is 0.76/1.67 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.61/2.09 for Sporting Kansas City.
How the model reaches 61% for San Diego to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for San Diego to win. Then home advantage adds 7 points, San Diego's ratings take away 21 points and Sporting Kansas City's ratings add 38 points, which lands on the published 61%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage44%+7
- San Diego's ratings23%−21
- Sporting Kansas City's ratings61%+38
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
San Diego at home · Sporting Kansas City away
League matches only, Major League Soccer, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Major League Soccer matches this season: San Diego 31, Sporting Kansas City 31.
San Diego score most often in the 46–60 minute window (12 goals); Sporting Kansas City have let in 8 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.