Real Salt Lake
vs
Los Angeles Galaxy
Major League Soccer prediction
Our model says: Real Salt Lake 2–1 Los Angeles Galaxy
The model makes it 48% Real Salt Lake, 25% draw, 27% Los Angeles Galaxy — fair odds of 2.08, 4.00 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Real Salt Lake 1.88, Los Angeles Galaxy 1.30.
Both teams to score: 62%. Over 2.5 goals: 61%, under 2.5: 39%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 45% of the time, over 2,236 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 25 October 2026. Real Salt Lake's rating is built from 66 MLS matches and Los Angeles Galaxy's from 65, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,527 matches.
Key facts
- Real Salt Lake are 10th on 39 points from 31 games; Los Angeles Galaxy are 9th on 40 points from 31 games — Major League Soccer, Western Conference.
- Real Salt Lake are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 3-0 win at home to St. Louis City.
- Los Angeles Galaxy have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-2 draw at home to San Diego.
- Last 6 meetings: Los Angeles Galaxy 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 26 April 2026, ended Los Angeles Galaxy 2–1 Real Salt Lake.
More MLS predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Real Salt Lake vs Los Angeles Galaxy
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Real Salt Lake at 48% here. Across 4,776 settled matches (as of 25 October 2026), 2,217 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Real Salt Lake vs Los Angeles Galaxy
Real Salt Lake
Major League Soccer
- W3-0St. Louis City25 October 2026
- W3-1away to Sporting Kansas City18 October 2026
- D1-1San Jose Earthquakes15 October 2026
- L1-2away to Philadelphia Union10 October 2026
- W3-0New England Revolution27 September 2026
Los Angeles Galaxy
Major League Soccer
- D2-2San Diego18 October 2026
- W2-0Portland Timbers15 October 2026
- L2-6away to St. Louis City11 October 2026
- W3-2Colorado Rapids27 September 2026
- W3-2away to Minnesota United FC20 September 2026
What these results say
- Real Salt Lake scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Real Salt Lake had three goals or more.
- Los Angeles Galaxy scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Los Angeles Galaxy conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Los Angeles Galaxy had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Real Salt Lake | 31 | 11 | 6 | 14 | 48 | 48 | 0 | 39 |
| 9 | Los Angeles Galaxy | 31 | 10 | 10 | 11 | 43 | 52 | -9 | 40 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Real Salt Lake
Chance to finish in the top nine · 53% today
Los Angeles Galaxy
Chance to finish in the top nine · 44% today
From our Major League Soccer season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Real Salt Lake vs Los Angeles Galaxy
- 26 April 2026Los Angeles Galaxy 2–1 Real Salt LakeMajor League Soccer
- 13 February 2026Los Angeles Galaxy 3–3 Real Salt LakeFriendlies Clubs
- 1 June 2025Los Angeles Galaxy 2–0 Real Salt LakeMajor League Soccer
- 5 April 2025Real Salt Lake 2–0 Los Angeles GalaxyMajor League Soccer
- 23 June 2024Real Salt Lake 0–1 Los Angeles GalaxyMajor League Soccer
- 12 May 2024Los Angeles Galaxy 2–2 Real Salt LakeMajor League Soccer
Leading scorers: Real Salt Lake and Los Angeles Galaxy
Real Salt Lake
GoalsAssists
- S. Solans143
Los Angeles Galaxy
No player in Major League Soccer's leading scorers — 43 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Real Salt Lake carry a model rating of 6.46 against 6.39 for Los Angeles Galaxy. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.88 goals for Real Salt Lake and 1.30 for Los Angeles Galaxy. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Real Salt Lake rate 0.64 in attack and 1.39 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Los Angeles Galaxy rate 0.64 and 1.60.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Los Angeles Galaxy, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,309 correct results out of 4,819 settled predictions (48%), with 476 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Real Salt Lake the highest probability at 48%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.88 expected goals for Real Salt Lake against 1.30 for Los Angeles Galaxy. Real Salt Lake's attack/defence rating is 0.64/1.39 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.64/1.6 for Los Angeles Galaxy.
How the model reaches 48% for Real Salt Lake to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Real Salt Lake to win. Then home advantage adds 7 points, Real Salt Lake's ratings take away 21 points and Los Angeles Galaxy's ratings add 25 points, which lands on the published 48%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage44%+7
- Real Salt Lake's ratings23%−21
- Los Angeles Galaxy's ratings48%+25
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Real Salt Lake at home · Los Angeles Galaxy away
League matches only, Major League Soccer, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Major League Soccer matches this season: Real Salt Lake 30, Los Angeles Galaxy 31.
Real Salt Lake score most often in the 76–90 minute window (10 goals); Los Angeles Galaxy have let in 9 there.
Los Angeles Galaxy score most often in the 76–90 minute window (12 goals); Real Salt Lake have let in 10 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.