Moghreb Tetouan
vs
CODM Meknès
Botola Pro prediction
Our model says: Moghreb Tetouan 0–1 CODM Meknès
The model makes it 29% Moghreb Tetouan, 32% draw, 39% CODM Meknès — fair odds of 3.45, 3.13 and 2.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Moghreb Tetouan 0.92, CODM Meknès 1.13.
Both teams to score: 41%. Over 2.5 goals: 34%, under 2.5: 66%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 957 settled matches.
Edge to CODM Meknès: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 24 October 2026. Moghreb Tetouan's rating is built from 4 Botola Pro matches and CODM Meknès's from 34, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 518 matches.
Key facts
- Moghreb Tetouan are 14th on 3 points from 4 games; CODM Meknès are 2nd on 7 points from 4 games — Botola Pro.
- Moghreb Tetouan have not won in their last 4 games, most recently a 1-4 defeat away to Difaa EL Jadida.
- CODM Meknès have won 2 of their last 4 games, most recently a 1-0 win at home to UTS Rabat.
- Last 2 meetings: CODM Meknès 1 win to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 17 January 2025, ended CODM Meknès 1–0 Moghreb Tetouan.
More Botola Pro predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Moghreb Tetouan vs CODM Meknès
Has the model earned this number?
It puts CODM Meknès at 39% here. Across 4,534 settled matches (as of 24 October 2026), 3,490 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Moghreb Tetouan vs CODM Meknès
Moghreb Tetouan
Botola Pro
- L1-4away to Difaa EL Jadida17 October 2026
- D0-0FUS Rabat9 October 2026
- D1-1away to Ittihad Tanger2 October 2026
- D0-0Renaissance Berkane27 September 2026
CODM Meknès
Botola Pro
- W1-0UTS Rabat17 October 2026
- D0-0away to Wydad AC11 October 2026
- L0-1Kawkab Marrakech3 October 2026
- W6-2away to Difaa EL Jadida26 September 2026
What these results say
- Moghreb Tetouan did not win any of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Moghreb Tetouan had two goals or fewer.
- 3 of these 4 matches for CODM Meknès had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Botola Pro table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Moghreb Tetouan | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 3 |
| 2 | CODM Meknès | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 3 | +4 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Moghreb Tetouan vs CODM Meknès
- 17 January 2025CODM Meknès 1–0 Moghreb TetouanBotola Pro
- 29 September 2024Moghreb Tetouan 1–1 CODM MeknèsBotola Pro
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Moghreb Tetouan carry a model rating of 6.15 against 6.3 for CODM Meknès. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects a tight, low-scoring game
Under the hood the model expects 0.92 goals for Moghreb Tetouan and 1.13 for CODM Meknès. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Moghreb Tetouan rate 0.44 in attack and 1.80 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; CODM Meknès rate 0.56 and 1.68.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,192 correct results out of 4,558 settled predictions (48%), with 452 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives CODM Meknès the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.92 expected goals for Moghreb Tetouan against 1.13 for CODM Meknès. Moghreb Tetouan's attack/defence rating is 0.44/1.8 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.56/1.68 for CODM Meknès.
How the model reaches 39% for CODM Meknès to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 35% for CODM Meknès to win. Then home advantage takes away 2 points, Moghreb Tetouan's ratings add 33 points and CODM Meknès's ratings take away 27 points, which lands on the published 39%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground35%
- Home advantage33%−2
- Moghreb Tetouan's ratings66%+33
- CODM Meknès's ratings39%−27
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Season stats
Moghreb Tetouan at home · CODM Meknès away
League matches only, Botola Pro, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
Moghreb TetouanCODM Meknès
Moghreb Tetouan are 14th after 4 Botola Pro matches (between 5th and 13th so far); CODM Meknès are 2nd after 4 (between 1st and 5th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Botola Pro matches this season: Moghreb Tetouan 4, CODM Meknès 4.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.