Gillingham
vs
Barrow
FA Cup prediction
Our model says: Gillingham 2–1 Barrow
The model makes it 53% Gillingham, 24% draw, 23% Barrow — fair odds of 1.89, 4.17 and 4.35. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Gillingham 2.08, Barrow 1.19.
Both teams to score: 61%. Over 2.5 goals: 63%, under 2.5: 37%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 59% of the time, over 1,486 settled matches.
Edge to Gillingham: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 24 October 2026. Gillingham's rating is built from 58 League Two matches and Barrow's from 46, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Gillingham have won 1 of their last 5 League Two games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Port Vale.
- Last 6 meetings: Gillingham 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 28 February 2026, ended Barrow 0–1 Gillingham.
More FA Cup predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Gillingham vs Barrow
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Gillingham at 53% here. Across 4,534 settled matches (as of 24 October 2026), 1,113 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Gillingham vs Barrow
Gillingham
League Two
- D1-1Port Vale20 October 2026
- L1-3away to Accrington Stanley17 October 2026
- W4-1away to Rotherham10 October 2026
- D0-0Newport County3 October 2026
- L0-3away to York26 September 2026
Barrow
No earlier matches on record this season.
What these results say
- Gillingham failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Gillingham conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Head-to-head: Gillingham vs Barrow
- 28 February 2026Barrow 0–1 GillinghamLeague Two
- 13 December 2025Gillingham 2–2 BarrowLeague Two
- 8 February 2025Barrow 3–0 GillinghamLeague Two
- 28 September 2024Gillingham 2–0 BarrowLeague Two
- 13 April 2024Gillingham 3–0 BarrowLeague Two
- 5 March 2024Barrow 2–0 GillinghamLeague Two
Leading scorers: Gillingham and Barrow
Gillingham
GoalsAssists
- Ronan Hale51
Barrow
No leading scorers listed yet.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Gillingham carry a model rating of 6.07 against 5.94 for Barrow. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.08 goals for Gillingham and 1.19 for Barrow. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Gillingham rate 0.49 in attack and 2.35 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Barrow rate 0.42 and 2.61.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,192 correct results out of 4,558 settled predictions (48%), with 452 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Gillingham the highest probability at 53%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.08 expected goals for Gillingham against 1.19 for Barrow. Gillingham's attack/defence rating is 0.49/2.35 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.42/2.61 for Barrow.
How the model reaches 53% for Gillingham to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Gillingham to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, Gillingham's ratings take away 34 points and Barrow's ratings add 43 points, which lands on the published 53%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Gillingham's ratings10%−34
- Barrow's ratings53%+43
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Gillingham
- at Colchester14 Nov · League Twowin 28%
- vs Crewe21 Nov · League Twowin 35%
- at Salford City28 Nov · League Twowin 23%
- vs Swindon Town1 Dec · League Twowin 39%
Barrow
No further matches on our board yet.
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.