Austin
vs
Portland Timbers
Major League Soccer prediction
Our model says: Austin 2–1 Portland Timbers
The model makes it 41% Austin, 25% draw, 34% Portland Timbers — fair odds of 2.44, 4.00 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Austin 1.77, Portland Timbers 1.58.
Both teams to score: 66%. Over 2.5 goals: 65%, under 2.5: 35%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 45% of the time, over 2,236 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 25 October 2026. Austin's rating is built from 67 MLS matches and Portland Timbers's from 69, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,527 matches.
Key facts
- Austin are 14th on 34 points from 31 games; Portland Timbers are 11th on 37 points from 31 games — Major League Soccer, Western Conference.
- Austin have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-1 win away to Sporting Kansas City.
- Portland Timbers have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-2 win at home to Charlotte.
- Last 6 meetings: Portland Timbers 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 30 August 2026, ended Portland Timbers 1–2 Austin.
More MLS predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Austin vs Portland Timbers
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Austin at 41% here. Across 4,776 settled matches (as of 25 October 2026), 2,217 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Austin vs Portland Timbers
Austin
Major League Soccer
- W2-1away to Sporting Kansas City25 October 2026
- L1-2Vancouver Whitecaps18 October 2026
- L1-3away to Los Angeles FC15 October 2026
- L1-4Nashville SC11 October 2026
- D3-3San Diego27 September 2026
Portland Timbers
Major League Soccer
- W3-2Charlotte25 October 2026
- D0-0Colorado Rapids18 October 2026
- L0-2away to Los Angeles Galaxy15 October 2026
- D3-3away to Sporting Kansas City11 October 2026
- L1-3away to San Jose Earthquakes27 September 2026
What these results say
- Austin scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Austin conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Austin had three goals or more.
- Portland Timbers failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Portland Timbers conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Austin | 31 | 8 | 10 | 13 | 40 | 57 | -17 | 34 |
| 11 | Portland Timbers | 31 | 10 | 7 | 14 | 54 | 58 | -4 | 37 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Austin
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 69% today
Portland Timbers
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 27% today
From our Major League Soccer season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Austin vs Portland Timbers
- 30 August 2026Portland Timbers 1–2 AustinMajor League Soccer
- 5 April 2025Austin 0–0 Portland TimbersMajor League Soccer
- 2 March 2025Portland Timbers 1–0 AustinMajor League Soccer
- 3 October 2024Portland Timbers 0–1 AustinMajor League Soccer
- 30 May 2024Austin 0–2 Portland TimbersMajor League Soccer
- 18 September 2023Austin 1–2 Portland TimbersMajor League Soccer
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Austin carry a model rating of 6.38 against 6.44 for Portland Timbers. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.77 goals for Austin and 1.58 for Portland Timbers. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Austin rate 0.60 in attack and 1.55 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Portland Timbers rate 0.70 and 1.61.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Portland Timbers, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,309 correct results out of 4,819 settled predictions (48%), with 476 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Austin the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.77 expected goals for Austin against 1.58 for Portland Timbers. Austin's attack/defence rating is 0.6/1.55 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.7/1.61 for Portland Timbers.
How the model reaches 41% for Austin to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Austin to win. Then home advantage adds 7 points, Austin's ratings take away 25 points and Portland Timbers's ratings add 22 points, which lands on the published 41%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage44%+7
- Austin's ratings19%−25
- Portland Timbers's ratings41%+22
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Austin at home · Portland Timbers away
League matches only, Major League Soccer, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Major League Soccer matches this season: Austin 31, Portland Timbers 31.
Austin score most often in the 76–90 minute window (17 goals); Portland Timbers have let in 12 there.
Portland Timbers score most often in the 76–90 minute window (13 goals); Austin have let in 20 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.