FC Dallas
vs
Colorado Rapids
Major League Soccer prediction
Our model says: FC Dallas 2–1 Colorado Rapids
The model makes it 49% FC Dallas, 26% draw, 25% Colorado Rapids — fair odds of 2.04, 3.85 and 4.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: FC Dallas 1.74, Colorado Rapids 1.11.
Both teams to score: 56%. Over 2.5 goals: 54%, under 2.5: 46%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 45% of the time, over 2,236 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 25 October 2026. FC Dallas's rating is built from 67 MLS matches and Colorado Rapids's from 65, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,527 matches.
Key facts
- FC Dallas are 2nd on 54 points from 31 games; Colorado Rapids are 8th on 42 points from 31 games — Major League Soccer, Western Conference.
- FC Dallas are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 3-0 win at home to San Jose Earthquakes.
- Colorado Rapids are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 1-0 win at home to Vancouver Whitecaps.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 24 May 2026, ended Colorado Rapids 1–2 FC Dallas.
More MLS predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: FC Dallas vs Colorado Rapids
Has the model earned this number?
It puts FC Dallas at 49% here. Across 4,776 settled matches (as of 25 October 2026), 2,217 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into FC Dallas vs Colorado Rapids
FC Dallas
Major League Soccer
- W3-0San Jose Earthquakes25 October 2026
- D2-2away to Houston Dynamo18 October 2026
- W1-0Seattle Sounders15 October 2026
- L2-3away to Charlotte10 October 2026
- W1-0Los Angeles FC27 September 2026
Colorado Rapids
Major League Soccer
- W1-0Vancouver Whitecaps25 October 2026
- D0-0away to Portland Timbers18 October 2026
- D2-2Minnesota United FC15 October 2026
- D1-1San Jose Earthquakes11 October 2026
- L2-3away to Los Angeles Galaxy27 September 2026
What these results say
- FC Dallas scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Colorado Rapids failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Colorado Rapids scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | FC Dallas | 31 | 15 | 9 | 7 | 58 | 47 | +11 | 54 |
| 8 | Colorado Rapids | 31 | 12 | 6 | 13 | 42 | 41 | +1 | 42 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
FC Dallas
Chance to finish top of the Western Conference · 27% today
Colorado Rapids
Chance to finish in the top nine · 85% today
From our Major League Soccer season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: FC Dallas vs Colorado Rapids
- 24 May 2026Colorado Rapids 1–2 FC DallasMajor League Soccer
- 21 September 2025FC Dallas 3–1 Colorado RapidsMajor League Soccer
- 2 March 2025Colorado Rapids 3–3 FC DallasMajor League Soccer
- 1 September 2024FC Dallas 2–3 Colorado RapidsMajor League Soccer
- 21 April 2024Colorado Rapids 2–1 FC DallasMajor League Soccer
- 15 October 2023FC Dallas 1–1 Colorado RapidsMajor League Soccer
Leading scorers: FC Dallas and Colorado Rapids
FC Dallas
GoalsAssists
- P. Musa225
Colorado Rapids
No player in Major League Soccer's leading scorers — 42 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
FC Dallas carry a model rating of 6.57 against 6.47 for Colorado Rapids. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.74 goals for FC Dallas and 1.11 for Colorado Rapids. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
FC Dallas rate 0.78 in attack and 1.38 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Colorado Rapids rate 0.55 and 1.22.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives FC Dallas a 26.6% chance of the title and Colorado Rapids 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,309 correct results out of 4,819 settled predictions (48%), with 476 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FC Dallas the highest probability at 49%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.74 expected goals for FC Dallas against 1.11 for Colorado Rapids. FC Dallas's attack/defence rating is 0.78/1.38 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.55/1.22 for Colorado Rapids.
How the model reaches 49% for FC Dallas to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for FC Dallas to win. Then home advantage adds 7 points, FC Dallas's ratings take away 16 points and Colorado Rapids's ratings add 21 points, which lands on the published 49%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage44%+7
- FC Dallas's ratings28%−16
- Colorado Rapids's ratings49%+21
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
FC Dallas at home · Colorado Rapids away
League matches only, Major League Soccer, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Major League Soccer matches this season: FC Dallas 31, Colorado Rapids 30.
FC Dallas score most often in the 76–90 minute window (16 goals); Colorado Rapids have let in 12 there.
Colorado Rapids score most often in the 76–90 minute window (10 goals); FC Dallas have let in 6 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.