Regular Season - 14 · 20 November 2026, 18:30 UTC

Stade Nyonnais vs FC WIL 1900 Challenge League prediction

Colovray Sports Centre, Nyon

Our model says: Stade Nyonnais 0–1 FC WIL 1900

The model makes it 31% Stade Nyonnais, 27% draw, 42% FC WIL 1900 — fair odds of 3.23, 3.70 and 2.38.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

Expected goals: Stade Nyonnais 1.22, FC WIL 1900 1.51.

Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 51%, under 2.5: 49%.

Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,920 settled matches.

Edge to FC WIL 1900: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.

Published · updated

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 12 November 2026. Stade Nyonnais's rating is built from 49 Challenge League matches and FC WIL 1900's from 49, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.

Key facts

  • Stade Nyonnais are bottom on 8 points from 13 games; FC WIL 1900 are 8th on 14 points from 13 games — Challenge League.
  • Stade Nyonnais have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-5 defeat at home to Stade Lausanne-Ouchy.
  • FC WIL 1900 have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-0 win away to FC Aarau.
  • Last 6 meetings: FC WIL 1900 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 18 September 2026, ended FC WIL 1900 5–0 Stade Nyonnais.

More Challenge League predictions

All Challenge League predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Stade Nyonnais vs FC WIL 1900

55%
Both teams to score
51%
Over 2.5 goals
49%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Stade Nyonnais win Draw FC WIL 1900 win
  1. 1–113%
  2. 0–19%
  3. 1–29%
  4. 0–27%
  5. 1–07%
  6. 2–17%
  7. 0–07%

Scores read Stade Nyonnais first; the other scorelines share the remaining 40%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

FC WIL 1900 at 42%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Stade Nyonnais vs FC WIL 1900

Stade Nyonnais

Challenge League

  • L1-5Stade Lausanne-Ouchy6 November 2026
  • W4-1away to Rapperswil30 October 2026
  • L0-4away to FC Winterthur23 October 2026
  • W2-1FC Aarau9 October 2026
  • L0-5away to FC WIL 190018 September 2026

FC WIL 1900

Challenge League

  • W3-0away to FC Aarau6 November 2026
  • L0-3FC Winterthur1 November 2026
  • D2-2Rapperswil23 October 2026
  • D1-1away to SC Kriens9 October 2026
  • W5-0Stade Nyonnais18 September 2026

What these results say

  • Stade Nyonnais conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Every one of these 5 matches for Stade Nyonnais had three goals or more.
  • FC WIL 1900 scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for FC WIL 1900 had three goals or more.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Challenge League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
10Stade Nyonnais132291334-218
8FC WIL 1900133552127-614

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

Stade Nyonnais

Chance to finish in the bottom one · 88% today

Win 77%
Draw 90%
Defeat 95%

FC WIL 1900

Chance to finish in the top four · 4% today

Win 7%
Draw 3%
Defeat <1%

From our Challenge League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Stade Nyonnais vs FC WIL 1900

  • 18 September 2026FC WIL 1900 5–0 Stade NyonnaisChallenge League
  • 1 May 2026Stade Nyonnais 0–1 FC WIL 1900Challenge League
  • 1 February 2026FC WIL 1900 0–0 Stade NyonnaisChallenge League
  • 14 December 2025FC WIL 1900 1–0 Stade NyonnaisChallenge League
  • 3 October 2025Stade Nyonnais 2–1 FC WIL 1900Challenge League
  • 4 April 2025Stade Nyonnais 0–2 FC WIL 1900Challenge League

How the call on Stade Nyonnais v FC WIL 1900 has moved

First published on 6 Nov at 35% / 29% / 36% (home / draw / away). After 2 updates it reads 31% / 27% / 42%: the biggest move is FC WIL 1900's chance of winning, up 6 points.

  1. Stade Nyonnais win31%▼ −4
  2. Draw27%▼ −2
  3. FC WIL 1900 win42%▲ +6

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Stade Nyonnais FC WIL 1900
0.33 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.44
2.85 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 2.27
1.22 Model expected goals (this match) 1.51

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives FC WIL 1900 the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Stade Nyonnais against 1.51 for FC WIL 1900. Stade Nyonnais's attack/defence rating is 0.33/2.85 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.44/2.27 for FC WIL 1900.

How the model reaches 42% for FC WIL 1900 to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for FC WIL 1900 to win. Then home advantage takes away 7 points, Stade Nyonnais's ratings add 6 points and FC WIL 1900's ratings add 7 points, which lands on the published 42%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage29%−7
  3. Stade Nyonnais's ratings35%+6
  4. FC WIL 1900's ratings42%+7

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

Stade NyonnaisFC WIL 1900
13Matches13
2W 2D 9LRecord3W 5D 5L
13 1.0 per gameGoals scored21 1.6 per game
34 2.6 per gameGoals conceded27 2.1 per game
1 of 13Clean sheets2 of 13
5 of 13Failed to score4 of 13
2 of 2Penalties scored2 of 2
29 2.2 per gameYellow cards29 2.2 per game
2Red cards4

Stade Nyonnais at home · FC WIL 1900 away

6Played7
1W 2D 3LRecord2W 3D 2L
7–13Goals for – against11–16
1 of 6Clean sheets1 of 7

League matches only, Challenge League, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Challenge League matches this season: Stade Nyonnais 13, FC WIL 1900 13.

Stade Nyonnais scored 010613
FC WIL 1900 conceded 743326

Stade Nyonnais score most often in the 46–60 minute window (6 goals); FC WIL 1900 have let in 3 there.

FC WIL 1900 scored 541535
Stade Nyonnais conceded 3577310

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 4 matches, by difficulty

Stade Nyonnais

  • at Neuchatel Xamax FC28 Nov · Challenge Leaguewin 17%
  • vs SC Kriens4 Dec · Challenge Leaguewin 26%
  • at Étoile Carouge11 Dec · Challenge Leaguewin 18%
  • vs Yverdon Sport18 Dec · Challenge Leaguewin 20%

FC WIL 1900

  • vs Yverdon Sport28 Nov · Challenge Leaguewin 31%
  • vs Étoile Carouge6 Dec · Challenge Leaguewin 43%
  • at Neuchatel Xamax FC13 Dec · Challenge Leaguewin 27%
  • vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy18 Dec · Challenge Leaguewin 26%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.